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The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

vanityfair.com

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Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#61
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These labs are in major cities. Epidemics are likely to be detected in Major cities. The chance of an outbreak being near a research lab aren't as long as you seem to think. If an outbreak were to happen in the United states just about everywhere would be near a CDC location: https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-e&tbs=lf:1,lf... ]

As pointed out in the article, there were exactly 3 cities in the world working on gain-of-function research related to bat-originated coronaviruses. Galveston, Texas, Chapel Hill N.C, and Wuhan. It’s way more narrow than just being near a biological laboratory.

At that point you've subtly moved from lab leak theory to engineered virus theory which is much higher up the conspiracy theory chain.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#62
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you really want justice then you need a coherent statement of the offense, there should be a fair hearing with representatives of all sides, there should be impartial review whether that be trained judges or a selected jury of peers or whatever else, and so on. Cool. Since China is the source of this virus, can they take the lead here? I'll wait.

There is no lead. Since America is the prime location for infection and death we should probably try to be serious about the issue instead of getting distracted. And what exactly is China expected to do in any case? Apologize? Pay in the way fining Germany for WWI led to WWII? You are full of moral rage, yet still have essentially zero scientific support. Are you sure that is okay?

> And what exactly is China expected to do in any case?

China, and every other country, should move such labs away from major population centers.

From the article:

> Then, in February, a research paper coauthored by two Chinese scientists, based at separate Wuhan universities, appeared online as a preprint. It tackled a fundamental question: How did a novel bat coronavirus get to a major metropolis of 11 million people in central China, in the dead of winter when most bats were hibernating, and turn a market where bats weren’t sold into the epicenter of an outbreak?

> The paper offered an answer: “We screened the area around the seafood market and identified two laboratories conducting research on bat coronavirus.” The first was the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, which sat just 280 meters from the Huanan market and had been known to collect hundreds of bat samples. The second, the researchers wrote, was the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

> The paper came to a staggeringly blunt conclusion about COVID-19: “the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.... Regulations may be taken to relocate these laboratories far away from city center and other densely populated places.”

Key part: "Regulations may be taken to relocate these laboratories far away from city center and other densely populated places" Isn't this common sense? I feel that those claiming there is nothing that could be done with information pointing to a lab leak, as you seem to be doing, are being incredibly disingenuous. If the virus escaped from a lab, strengthening lab regulations is the obvious response that you seem to be pretending doesn't exist.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#63
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was every other emerging virus also created in a lab? SARS? MERS? Influenza? Polio? The highest probability is this virus originated like every other virus in history.

So when we find Anthrax outside its normal "range" but close to a lab we can just say, yeah, no, while it's not endemic to this location it is 1000 miles away, so nothing to worry about? Oh, and never mind the lab.

Or you know, 2 days drive depending on road conditions and trucking shipment along the route to a major metropolis.

This is an argument from incredulity.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#64

It’s crazy to me how many people on even this forum, a place purportedly of science, continue to dismiss a lab leak origin out of hand citing it as some sort of crackpot theory. The serious questions raised in this article have been around since last April but it’s only now it’s even allowed to talk about them on digital forums. Excellent write up by Vanity Fair.

Here's what I remember from that time period. My recollection is that the wet market hypothesis fell out of favor rather quickly, but nothing else really emerged in its place. The lab leak theory was circulating, but amongst people such as rank-and-file scientists, the attitude was: We aren't going to get a straight answer about this, but we've got to defeat this virus.

I don't remember dismissing the lab leak theory per se, but rather, taking it in as one of a massive spew of crackpot theories all coming from more or less one source. I'm reminded of the children's story, "The boy who cried wolf."

Looking back in hindsight, I wonder how we could have picked out the lab leak theory as being worthy of consideration, given the context. And whether a more scientifically minded public and government would have faced that dilemma.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#65
post #6
post #2

This is the most shocking article I have ever read in my life. I'd ask everyone to please read it because it is incredible. One thing I did not realize is that US researchers who conducted gain of function research tried to downplay and discredit the possibility of the virus originating from the wuhan lab. There was an anti-lab theory Lancet statement signed by scientists, and "Daszak had not only signed but organize…

It gets worse - gain of function research was banned under Obama until the ban was lifted in 2017 under Trump - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... I can’t find sources for this right now but apparently Dr Anthony Fauci played a key role in getting the ban lifted. He’s also the head of the NIAID ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Fauci ) which (apparently) is the ultimate source for…

> So the lead guy we’ve been listening to (and still are) for scientific advice on this pandemic is entangled in a massive conflict of interest.

How does any role he might (or might not have) played in GOF research create a conflict of interest in terms of his advice about the pandemic?

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#66
post #10
post #7

Another pretty good article, certainly higher quality than you'd consider given the source[0]. What switch flipped to make all these come out right now? [0]: https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-how-amateur-sleuths-broke...

Who benefits?

Big Pharma? Authoritarians? The 0.1%?

All the above.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#67
post #23
post #13

Anybody who has ever worked in a wet lab, or a lab of any sort, knows that accidents happen. All the time. Things catch fire, things are dropped, labeling issues happen, anything you can think of. I worked for many years in a lab, the accidental leak hypothesis was and still is what I consider the most probable. Calculate the joint probability of everything we know about the origin of SARS-CoV-2 happening and it shou…

What makes lab leak more probable than cross species transfer, something that happens all the time?

With SARS-Cov1 and MERS they were able to identify the cross-over host and find transitional stages that are somewhat adapted to human hosts but more successful in other host animals. It is not too late to find that of course, but it is becoming conspicuous in its absence. Also, the lab in Wuhan was basically trying to create SARS-Cov-2 and that isn't speculation its what their grant proposal says they were doing.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#68
post #4

If anything good can come of this, I hope some of the folks who trusted the science begins to realize that people are behind science and people often act in their own best interest. Not that it will change much but we can at least stop yelling down and shaming skeptics.

this is terrifying.. who can we even trust then :\ Such exposed dishonesty leads to more and more people completely losing faith in everything that the scientists say and turning into anti-vaccers etc.

it's the reality of living in large, complex societies, where our intuitive trust-building relational proclivities get short-circuited by power structures. that doesn't mean we never trust organizations, but trust should be commensurate with our relational distance. that's actually the foundational principle of the federalist separation of powers (in the US).

also, terms like "anti-vaccers" don't help. just stop trying to bucket others as being stupid or outrageous. there are small but real, legitimate risks to every vaccine. that some folks can be overly self-assured and blow out those dangers for their own self-importance has no bearing on that fact. employ your rational brain to keep your emotional brain in check so you can see risks as they are, not as others want to use against you.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#69

4chan figured this out as early as March 2020: google "site:4plebs.org shi zhengli"

Nearly made the same comment myself. It feels vindicating to watch all this unfold. How many times now has 4chan been right about the virus, and the media wrong?

- 4chan saw the pandemic coming in January 2020, and predicted it would be big

- 4chan knew it wasn't 'just another flu' in March 2020, when the media was downplaying it

- 4chan figured out the virus is transmitted via areosol, not just particulate

- 4chan worked out that Vitamin D can help (even Fauci admitted he takes it)

- Wuhan Lab hypothesis

That's just off the top of my head. Sure, 4chan got a lot wrong: but better to get all the (possible) facts, and sift through them. That's science. What are you going to do otherwise? Trust Fauci?

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#70
You know the story of the boy who cried wolf?

Trump was the boy.

Everybody knows how that story ended, but as a reminder:

"This tale concerns a shepherd boy who repeatedly tricks nearby villagers into thinking a wolf is attacking his flock. When a wolf actually does appear, the villagers do not believe the boy's cries for help, and the flock is destroyed. The moral of the story is that liars will not be rewarded; even if they tell the truth, no one believes them. "

There's a cost to lying. Sometimes it's your own flock. Sometime's its everybody's flock. Maybe Trump was right, maybe he wasn't. The boy was right about the wolf, eventually, too. The moral remains the same.

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