Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider • Hacker News Board

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#61

Post by the8472 » Sat, May 01, 2021, 9:19 PM UTC

IAmGraydon wrote: post #58

nullc wrote: post #32

It's really important that manufacturers start responding to cryptocurrency induced shortages with auctions. The demand from the cryptocurrency users will be extremely high until they've spent a particular amount in total. They can do that with 1000 units, or with 5000 units. Obviously auctioning off units would be bad for having predictable prices for retail customers but that is irrelevant if aggressive miner buyin…

This is asinine. You would be making the product only available to those who can turn the highest profit from it and would lose the rest of your customer base to your competitor who is smart enough to not use an auction model. The entire cash flow would come from one narrow sector which would eventually collapse, leaving you with no customers. Business models evolve toward efficiency, and there is a good reason no on…

That sounds like a one-shot model. Auctions for mass-produced goods would be per batch. Nullc's argument is that driving up the price of auctions would exhaust whatever cash pile the miners are sitting on faster, which means they would gobble up fewer harddrives than they will if the prices are kept low.

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#62

Post by Phlarp » Sat, May 01, 2021, 9:20 PM UTC

jfim wrote: post #45

ancientworldnow wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ethereum are the GPU's. Bitcoin utilizes ASIC's designed only for Bitcoin. This is an eventual e-waste issue, but not a GPU supply issue.

Do bitcoin ASICs compete for the same limited IC foundry space?

Antminer S19 uses a 7nm process, so yes.

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#63

Post by entropea » Sat, May 01, 2021, 9:27 PM UTC

oceanplexian wrote: post #41

smolder wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't change that the shortages are caused by processes with infinite appetites. The demand grows with the supply, for hardware used by cryptocurrencies. To me it looks like the polar opposite of sustainability, which is distressing.

I just don’t get the sustainability argument.. Who decided that all computing must be for a sustainable or meaningful purpose? Cryptocurrency, as wasteful as it might appear, is like a drop in the ocean compared to the data centers of Google, Facebook, Microsoft, etc. Likes on Facebook provide much less value to society than a distributed currency that circumvents central control over the financial system. Second, Cr…

>Cryptocurrency, as wasteful as it might appear, is like a drop in the ocean compared to the data centers of Google, Facebook, Microsoft, etc.

https://www.eenewseurope.com/news/first-seven-customers-5nm-...

Are you sure? Bitmain is competing for 5nm wafers against the largest electronics manufacturers in the world.

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#64

Post by gruez » Sat, May 01, 2021, 9:28 PM UTC

yellow_lead wrote: post #51

jl6 wrote: post #38

Bitcoin ate all the GPUs and I said nothing because I was not a gamer. Now Chia wants to eat all the hard disks, and I am pissed . I declare war on hegemonizing proof-of-waste swarms. Burn the coins. I want that disk space back.

Chia claims to be a more green solution. Even going as far as to call their white paper a "green paper." Not sure anyone told them that burning through hard drives isn't very green either. [1] https://www.chia.net/greenpaper/

Yeah, all the electricity savings is just going to go towards buying (aka manufacturing) more hard drives.

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#65

Post by giantrobot » Sat, May 01, 2021, 9:29 PM UTC

ramshanker wrote: post #15

hdhrnnrkrkf wrote: post #2

Sample size 1: every 3 months I need to buy a large hard drive (14TB+). I buy external USB ones since they are the cheapest. Since it was due, in the last couple of weeks I was scanning prices in Romania daily, in case I get lucky with a discount. In the last week, prices surged 60-100%, and stock disappeared for 4 TB+. I panicked and after a lot of scanning I managed to buy a slightly smaller one than I needed with…

CPU, GPU and Hard Drive.... guess we can have more dumb devices for now instead of everything IoT.

Wait until I unveil IoTCoin, it'll use PoIoT to verify the blockchain. Keep an eye out for my ICO!

/s (or is it?)

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#66

Post by bcrosby95 » Sat, May 01, 2021, 9:31 PM UTC

Ericson2314 wrote: post #3

hdhrnnrkrkf wrote: post #2

Sample size 1: every 3 months I need to buy a large hard drive (14TB+). I buy external USB ones since they are the cheapest. Since it was due, in the last couple of weeks I was scanning prices in Romania daily, in case I get lucky with a discount. In the last week, prices surged 60-100%, and stock disappeared for 4 TB+. I panicked and after a lot of scanning I managed to buy a slightly smaller one than I needed with…

Shortages are good. It's the perfect time to set up manufacturing capability, so nationalists can be happy. It's a good time to push for hire wages, workers should do it. If there is some alternative industrial process, now's the time to try it. This is no 70s oil moment, because there's no indication fewer widgets are being produced than prepandemic.

Companies won't invest in factories if they think the demand is temporary. Because by the time they come online the demand will be gone.

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#67

Post by gruez » Sat, May 01, 2021, 9:31 PM UTC

IAmGraydon wrote: post #58

nullc wrote: post #32

It's really important that manufacturers start responding to cryptocurrency induced shortages with auctions. The demand from the cryptocurrency users will be extremely high until they've spent a particular amount in total. They can do that with 1000 units, or with 5000 units. Obviously auctioning off units would be bad for having predictable prices for retail customers but that is irrelevant if aggressive miner buyin…

This is asinine. You would be making the product only available to those who can turn the highest profit from it and would lose the rest of your customer base to your competitor who is smart enough to not use an auction model. The entire cash flow would come from one narrow sector which would eventually collapse, leaving you with no customers. Business models evolve toward efficiency, and there is a good reason no on…

>You would be making the product only available to those who can turn the highest profit from it and would lose the rest of your customer base to your competitor who is smart enough to not use an auction model

Auction sucks because it drives the price of goods up, but you know what's worse than prices going up? Prices going to infinity because they're out of stock.

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#68

Post by scientismer » Sat, May 01, 2021, 9:34 PM UTC

99_00 wrote: post #34

I've never built a PC. I expect the crytpocurency bubble to collapse because my tech ignorant accountant friend asked what I know about building a crypto mining rig. What should I read to prepare myself to take advantage of the cheap used high end hardware that will hit the market do build a Windows or Linux system for my own pleasure.

I wouldn't count on the cheap hardware, it may be pretty much broken after endless full power use for mining.

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#69

Post by meowster » Sat, May 01, 2021, 9:40 PM UTC

capableweb wrote: post #52

fmajid wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Chia” means “shat” in French.

"Chia" also refers to the plant "Salvia hispanica", that's Nahuatl/Mexicano.

I'm from the U.S., and when I hear/read "Chia", I think of the Chia Pet.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chia_Pet

Re: Thoughts on a “HDD shortage” from an industry insider

#70

Post by shiftpgdn » Sat, May 01, 2021, 9:45 PM UTC

scientismer wrote: post #68

99_00 wrote: post #34

I've never built a PC. I expect the crytpocurency bubble to collapse because my tech ignorant accountant friend asked what I know about building a crypto mining rig. What should I read to prepare myself to take advantage of the cheap used high end hardware that will hit the market do build a Windows or Linux system for my own pleasure.

I wouldn't count on the cheap hardware, it may be pretty much broken after endless full power use for mining.

I mined bitcoin, litecoin and later dogecoin on a bunch of workstations in a hot humid garage in Houston, Texas for years straight. I gave one of the workstations to a friend when I retired from mining in 2013 or so. It was still running fine when he retired it last year. Consumer electronics are much more durable than you would imagine.