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Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

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Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#61

Post by 0xy »

wonnage wrote: post #10
pattusk wrote: post #3

> The US has experienced more deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) than any other country and has one of the highest cumulative per capita death rates. Why would you start both the article and the abstract by saying that the US has experienced more death than any other country when the US also has (by far) the largest population of all countries surveyed? Reporting the per capita figure would be enough to…

India and China both have fewer deaths. The US is also a large and sparsely populated country. Best to suck it up and admit that the US has failed in every aspect and measure to respond to this pandemic.

Sure, if you read China's faked [1] coronavirus data put out for propaganda purposes.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-con...

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#62

Post by KMag »

phreeza wrote: post #54
KMag wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, if you believe that government interventions are useless in influencing infection rates, then it would make sense to compare case fatality rates instead of total excess mortality. Though, I'm not sure that was the GP's intention.

Not sure I follow, why would comparing CFRs make more sense? A lot depends on testing in that case.

Well, it replaces one set of variables (those influencing infection rates) with another set of variables (those influencing percentage of infections detected as cases). If you believe that policy has no effect on infection rates, and you believe you can better control for the latter set of variables, then CFRs make a better metric for judging policy effectiveness.

I should point out this is all predicated on a statement I believe to be false. (I suspect policy does meaningfully affect infection rates.)

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#63

Post by pcrh »

refurb wrote: post #29
pcrh wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>pretty much business as usual. Not only is it not actually business as usual, as other commenters remark, but this rate of death is despite the severe measures taken. Without such measures, deaths would have been 10-20 times higher.

I'm not sure that's true. Mortality is very high in the elderly, so if it went tearing through the rest of the population, you'd expect more deaths, but nowhere close to what you see in the 60+ old age group.

The Brazilian city of Manaus is an example of where restrictions were ignored by ~50% of the population (based on mobile phone data), resulting in approximately 66% of people becoming infected before herd immunity started to have an impact [0]. With an estimated infection:fatality rate for the US at ~0.5% (all ages) this would mean nearly 1.2 million deaths in the US.

[0] COVID-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194787v...

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#64

Post by mlang23 »

KMag wrote: post #58
mlang23 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it is obviously a competition between countries. "We managed to get through with less casualties then country X, so we are superior."

> with less[er] casualties than country X Is that a subtle joke about mean body mass in the US, or a grammatical error? http://ddg.gg/?q=count+vs+mass+noun

Thanks for pointing me to english grammar lessons I couldn't care less about. Or is it lesser, whatever.

No, I wasn't trying to do a subtle joke about obese americans. But now that you inspire me, I will consider it in the future.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#65

Post by evgen »

nickff wrote: post #47
evgen wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I share the skepticism in the numbers from China and India, I believe that if they were anywhere near a similar per capita rate as the US there would be visible evidence. China attacked the problem hard and by all accounts seems to have succeeded. For the most part India seems to have just gotten lucky; maybe India's numbers will be adjusted over time to reveal some rural devastation, but I will want to wait fo…

China was trucking in loads of urns every day that were more than ten times larger then their reported death rates; doesn't that count as visible evidence?

Citation needed. This is the first I have heard of this and given how desperately the current administration wants to pin anything COVID-related on to China I think that this would have been widely publicized if it were actually true.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#66

Post by evgen »

0xy wrote: post #60
evgen wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would expect China or India to have a higher number of deaths overall if the data were available. You would be incorrect. Perhaps the reason this death rate was mentioned is because the US is an outlier in both absolute numbers as well as per capita deaths.

China is not reporting accurate data, so I have no idea how you could possibly say definitively that China's numbers were less than the US on any basis. [1] [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-con...

We are saying that China's numbers are less than the US because if they were fucking up at a level even close to what the US is going through the evidence would be clearly visible. You cannot hide millions of dead. You can hide the bodies, but not the holes in the population and social structure that comes from losing this many people. So far your only evidence is a report that their case numbers were higher than reported from six months ago. Have anything more recent?

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#67

Post by Smutte »

matsemann wrote: post #52
rimliu wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When talking about the Sweden don't look just at the current year. Take a lookt at the previous and compare it to the neighbours.

And then see what? https://i.imgur.com/4wNdK1M.png

https://imgur.com/a/sHq3gjp

There you go. Data from official government agency. "Preliminary" and not full year since we're only in October 2020 now.

https://scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/befolkni...

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#68

Post by matsemann »

Smutte wrote: post #67
matsemann wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And then see what? https://i.imgur.com/4wNdK1M.png

https://imgur.com/a/sHq3gjp There you go. Data from official government agency. "Preliminary" and not full year since we're only in October 2020 now. https://scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/befolkni...

> There you go

What am I looking at? What are you trying to show? Just posting a random graph is not really helpful.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#69

Post by refurb »

pcrh wrote: post #63
refurb wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure that's true. Mortality is very high in the elderly, so if it went tearing through the rest of the population, you'd expect more deaths, but nowhere close to what you see in the 60+ old age group.

The Brazilian city of Manaus is an example of where restrictions were ignored by ~50% of the population (based on mobile phone data), resulting in approximately 66% of people becoming infected before herd immunity started to have an impact [0]. With an estimated infection:fatality rate for the US at ~0.5% (all ages) this would mean nearly 1.2 million deaths in the US. [0] COVID-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazo…

Ok, but OP said 10-20x higher, so with the current deaths at ~250,000, that would be 2.5M to 5M deaths.

And, I wouldn’t necessarily extrapolate what happened in one city to what would happen across an entire country.

So yeah, more deaths, no doubt. But 10-20x more? Seems unsupported.

Re: Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

#70

Post by redis_mlc »

KMag wrote: post #33
zdkl wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is WW2 generally perceived in america as having caused many deaths among american military aged males? I'm sure we can point to D-day and other punctual events as being outstandingly bloody but does this extend to the whole conflict? I'd be particularily interested in comparing the above ratio for Vietnam, or to German or Russian (combat & non-) WW2 deaths.

Having grown up in the US in the 1980s and 1990s, the American Revolution and WWII both loom large in the mythology of American exceptionalism, so I think the sacrifices of the soldiers weigh psychologically disproportionately. I think most college-educated Americans are aware that the Soviets lost nearly endless waves of soldiers against the Nazis. I also think most Americans are largely indifferent to the numbers o…

> I also think most Americans are largely indifferent to the numbers of German rank-and-file soldiers killed

No, we were gleeful at killing the enemy, whether German or Japanese. They declared war on us, disrupted our lives, and planned to kill us. Their lack of 4-engine bombers is the only reason New York wasn't bombed.

Regarding US involvement, we financed and armed both Britain and Russia, as well as China. And occupied all of the Axis countries.

Your Scottish friend is just participating in modern European historical revisionism due to current political correctness and collective shame, exhibited by allowing the self-loathing migrant invasion.

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