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New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

osc.state.ny.us

61–70 of 148 posts

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#61
post #28

This is especially infuriating if you compare the numbers from Covid with a bad flu season in NY. Twice as bad as the flu is certainly cause to take special preventive measures but not reason enough to ruin your local economy.

You seem to be mixing up cause and effect. The reason COVID hasn't been so bad is because of all the special preventative measures. It's super contagious, still sends 10% of people to hospital, and is killing 1-2% of people. Sitting in the presence of strangers for hours in an enclosed space is a great way to transmit COVID, and this is why indoor dining must be closed.

>You seem to be mixing up cause and effect. The reason COVID hasn't been so bad is because of all the special preventative measures.

How does this square up with the fact that places without any lockdowns, like Sweden and South Dakota, still have fewer deaths per capita than places like New York, Peru, Belgium and Spain?

A recent study found no correlation between lockdowns and reduced fatality; social distancing is the thing that has an effect: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/social-distancing-more-imp....

“We found that an early implementation of social distancing is the most significant factor, with a very high correlation to the mortality rate,” said the researchers. “Countries that responded quickly with social distancing measures – not necessarily with a tight lockdown – ultimately emerged from the first outbreak with better results. In contrast, no correlation was found between mortality data and the severity and/or length of the lockdown. Even in Sweden, a country that never imposed a lockdown, we can see that the early decrease in mobility, starting in March, was manifested in the mortality rate. Our study is based purely on observations and does not relate to the premises of any existing epidemiological model. We show that the spread of the pandemic can be prevented by quickly implementing basic measures of social distancing – without a rigorous lockdown.”

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#62
post #29
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are locking down far in excess of simply not overwhelming our hospitals.

Yes, but the point is to not have people get sick and die . Many people die even if they go to the hospital and there's plenty of respirator capacity - respirators are a last-ditch effort for someone who's hardest hit by the disease. This isn't an RPG with inns that always work and take you back to 100% health no matter what. If we want to say the lockdowns have been worse, let's start by answering: 1. What is the va…

For federal regulatory purposes the value of a human life is about $10M.

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2020/07/17/870483369/your...

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#63
I have to have a counterpoint:

One of my favorite coffee places in Manhattan closed this summer. I was bummed. Their lease was up for renewal, and it didn't make sense for the owner to renew it as all of the office worker traffic was gone.

Two months later, there is a new coffee place at that spot. The guys (different owners) just got a great deal on the lease for the first two years, and they will just need to make employee expenses. One of the baristas, was actually the same barista from the previous coffee place.

so, many places will close, and new restaurants will eventually open, hopefully with better/cheaper leases, which in Manhattan is a major expense, and kinda crazy compared to other cities.

I think a lot of the businesses that depended on office workers are going to close. While the ones that are in more residential areas, with available outdoor seating, will fare a bit better.

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#64
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one should realize that because lockdowns are to contain and minimize impacts of the virus and the evidence overwhelmingly suggests no matter what the economy gets impacted, this is the way to reduce harm to economic activity the best. Without restricting high spread activities the economy suffers even more as everyone gets sick and hospitals get overwhelmed. What you’re saying is just like saying evacuation order…

What evidence is that? Some other countries have not forced restaurants to close and yet have low current death rates.

It's economy also fell more than its neighbors https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-gdp-falls...

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#66

The long term trend of restaurants being closed in favor of ghost kitchens has just been accelerated due to COVID. It's just not sustainable to keep paying for brick and mortar when everything's moving online and to on-demand delivery. Retail is next.

I don’t know. I haven’t had a single good take out or delivery meal, beyond food types that were generally deliverable pre-COVID. Delivered sushi? It’s rubber. A crisp pan seared chicken breast? Also rubber. Don’t even waste your time with a steak. Once we get through this pandemic the restaurant industry will sky rocket.

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#67
post #12

At what point will people realize that the lockdown causes more harm than the virus?

I think we're pretty far into the sunk cost fallacy on this one. The fact that we've spent the past six months like this makes it too hard for many to accept that it might not have been the right choice.

Not liking a situation doesn't automatically push it into the realm of a sunk cost fallacy.

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#68
The state of the US economy, and society, is so incredibly frightening to me because we seem to no longer have a collective, shared experience and goals.

On one hand, people like me in the tech industry are doing fine, or better than fine. My job is secure and my skills are in high demand. On the other hand, I have friends who are highly skilled artists (musicians and dancers) who are going through the worst depression in a lifetime. Many trained intensively since early childhood, managed to succeed in a career where very few make it, but now are considering leaving that career, because they need to eat. It's beyond heartbreaking, and because of our general isolation right now I don't see us doing much (us as both a society and through government) to support these people right now. Yes, things will eventually improve, but in the meantime we are going to lose a generation of talent.

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#69
post #8

At what point will people realize that the lockdown causes more harm than the virus?

You can reopen a restaurant but can you reopen a human being?

It's really not that simple. The economy isn't a force of nature that will inevitably return - sometimes, a dead economy stays dead and a formerly rich region becomes poor.

Re: New York City thinks up to half of restaurants will close permanently [pdf]

#70
post #62
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but the point is to not have people get sick and die . Many people die even if they go to the hospital and there's plenty of respirator capacity - respirators are a last-ditch effort for someone who's hardest hit by the disease. This isn't an RPG with inns that always work and take you back to 100% health no matter what. If we want to say the lockdowns have been worse, let's start by answering: 1. What is the va…

For federal regulatory purposes the value of a human life is about $10M. https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2020/07/17/870483369/your...

That's the value of an average life. For public health issues, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality-adjusted_life_year is often used instead (e.g. by the NHS).
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