Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

quora.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 76 posts

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#61

Post by dragonwriter »

topkai22 wrote: post #59
dragonwriter wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think 2-2.5% frequently cited is the estimated IFR in the US.

I've only seen 2-2.5% cited as a CFR (case fatality rate) for 1918 influenza in the US, not the IFR (infection fatality rate). I don't know if those are assumed to be equivalent for are assumed to be retrospective analysis, but the CFR rate and IFR remain significantly different for COVID-19- ~4% for the all up US CFR rate and estimates anywhere from 0.1% to 1% for the COVID-19 IFR in the US.

> I've only seen 2-2.5% cited as a CFR (case fatality rate) for 1918 influenza in the US, not the IFR (infection fatality rate).

That may be the case; the places I've seen it cited it's clearly a US number, and it's usually alongside global infections and deaths, but the denominator of the US number has generally not been clear.

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#63

Post by dazag »

akira2501 wrote: post #37

> Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. Wouldn't that largely depend on the age of the victims? If the majority of victims are over retirement age, then this isn't likely to be true. We've had nearly 1% of our population killed or wounded in a short period of time before, it's impact on the economy doesn't seem that obvious. > 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the re…

I agree with you.

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#64

Post by zwendkos »

Consultant32452 wrote: post #33
Eric_WVGG wrote: post #5

I find it useful and illuminating to just come up with some common large spaces and make a few estimates… - remember the last time you were at the movies? Three people dropped dead during your screening of Avengers. - two people dying per subway car on your morning rush hour commute into the city - seven of the kids in your child’s high school graduating class die. he probably knew at least a couple by name. … but th…

Only about 1% of the people dying from covid are under 35. That's the big monkey wrench. If it was kids dying, I think the perception would be very different. There's other factors even more difficult to discuss than age. The state is powerless to shape policy in a way that adequately fits the risk due to Western culture's focus on individual rights. It's up to us to shape our behavior. Are we adult enough to have th…

Spot on.

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#65

Post by [deleted] »

ceejayoz wrote: post #52
6nf wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Several countries like Sweden and Japan and Korea proved that there are other options.

Sweden appears to bear out the parent comment's point, that the end result is still lockdown, just voluntary and less well organized: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-c... > This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better. “They literally gained nothing,” said Jacob F. Kirke…

[deleted]

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#66

Post by 6nf »

noxer wrote: post #54
6nf wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Several countries like Sweden and Japan and Korea proved that there are other options.

Did you even read my post? Do you think people in Sweden still went to the the cinema watching 2h long movies with 200 other people in the same room when everyone around them closed everything? Do you think it needed a ban/regulation for that to stop? People in Sweden knew exactly what everyone around them did. Also Sweden death per million is one of the highest despite the fact they got it rather late and hospitals…

Good job ignoring the other examples

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#67

Post by lazyloop »

D13Fd wrote: post #57
skeppy wrote: post #56

Help me. I’m confused. Is the author saying that 1% of the people who are diagnosed with it will die? (That’s how I read it at first). Or is he saying that 1% of everyone will die? Maybe that sounds like a dumb question, but I honestly don’t know if everyone is using the term “mortality rate” the way I think of it (which for me, until recently, was the first option above). I guess I don’t even know if it makes a diff…

There are two categories of ways this can resolve: (1) We beat the coronavirus. People no longer regularly get infected. (2) Coronavirus is here to stay. We'll all get it eventually just like we all eventually get colds and the flu. I think it's pretty clear at this point that (1) isn't happening, at least absent a vaccine. If we do get a vaccine, it may be a polio/measles type situation where we can eliminate the di…

Shutdowns also give the virus more time and incentive to evolve into more contagious variants with much milder symptoms. If we delay it long enough it can actually end up just being like the seasonal flu.

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#68

Post by majewsky »

6nf wrote: post #66
noxer wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you even read my post? Do you think people in Sweden still went to the the cinema watching 2h long movies with 200 other people in the same room when everyone around them closed everything? Do you think it needed a ban/regulation for that to stop? People in Sweden knew exactly what everyone around them did. Also Sweden death per million is one of the highest despite the fact they got it rather late and hospitals…

Good job ignoring the other examples

Japan and Korea have had experiences with SARS-CoV-1 back in the day. Therefore, using face masks in everyday life is ingrained in their culture by now. It would certainly be interesting to see data points from an alternate reality where the US population was consistent about wearing face masks in public.

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#69

Post by aeortiz »

akira2501 wrote: post #37

> Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. Wouldn't that largely depend on the age of the victims? If the majority of victims are over retirement age, then this isn't likely to be true. We've had nearly 1% of our population killed or wounded in a short period of time before, it's impact on the economy doesn't seem that obvious. > 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the re…

Any heroes willing to volunteer to be part of the 1%?

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#70

Post by me_me_me »

stoksc wrote: post #28
6nf wrote: post #11

> For every one person who dies: > 19 more require hospitalization. > 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. ... > One study published in March found that out of 416 _hospitalized_ Covid-19 patients, 19% showed signs of heart damage. How many other mistakes can you spot?

I just spent 5 minutes typing this up only to see your post.. thank you for also noticing. The other point made from this source (about permanent lung damage) is also wrong. I don’t see sources for the other numbers. I agree never closing the economy would’ve been a total disaster. But the math here is bad.

Writing from Ireland, >20 cases a day (as of writing). The lockdown here was a huge success.

But looking at the US numbers it seems that you got the worse outcome of lockdown/no-lockdown. Economical hit, plus number of cases are back on the rise due to people not isolating properly.

One could argue that for US lockdown was a mistake. Or at least very costly move to delay/prepare for peak infections.

Post reply on HN