previously: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23816640
How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
51–60 of 76 posts
Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
#52Can't believe people still question the shutdowns as if there would be a scenario without. The people in power could choose between enforced but somewhat controlled shutdowns or the chaos shutdown. No shutdown was never an option. Most people would have long done their own "shutdown" completely voluntary. It would just be more chaotic and less effective and it would have needed way more people to die first.
Several countries like Sweden and Japan and Korea proved that there are other options.
Sweden appears to bear out the parent comment's point, that the end result is still lockdown, just voluntary and less well organized:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-c...
> This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better. “They literally gained nothing,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It’s a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.”
Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
#53How can people consider anything else? 1% excess mortality isn't acceptable. Hospitalising 5-10% is crippling hospitals. The ongoing health issues in 20% will haunt us for years after we have a vaccine and before we do, we face the prospect that post-exposure immunity might be measured in months.
Only idiots think this is worth ignoring.
Coincidentally, they're the same idiots that came in a day late and a dollar short when it was time to close borders and quarantine travelers. We could have stopped this.
Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
#54Can't believe people still question the shutdowns as if there would be a scenario without. The people in power could choose between enforced but somewhat controlled shutdowns or the chaos shutdown. No shutdown was never an option. Most people would have long done their own "shutdown" completely voluntary. It would just be more chaotic and less effective and it would have needed way more people to die first.
Several countries like Sweden and Japan and Korea proved that there are other options.
Did you even read my post? Do you think people in Sweden still went to the the cinema watching 2h long movies with 200 other people in the same room when everyone around them closed everything? Do you think it needed a ban/regulation for that to stop? People in Sweden knew exactly what everyone around them did. Also Sweden death per million is one of the highest despite the fact they got it rather late and hospitals where officially never overwhelmed.
Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
#55I find it useful and illuminating to just come up with some common large spaces and make a few estimates… - remember the last time you were at the movies? Three people dropped dead during your screening of Avengers. - two people dying per subway car on your morning rush hour commute into the city - seven of the kids in your child’s high school graduating class die. he probably knew at least a couple by name. … but th…
I don't think your death rate analogies match the data. Here's the current day by day COVID death rates going back to Feb 1st.
Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
#56Help me. I’m confused. Is the author saying that 1% of the people who are diagnosed with it will die? (That’s how I read it at first).
Or is he saying that 1% of everyone will die? Maybe that sounds like a dumb question, but I honestly don’t know if everyone is using the term “mortality rate” the way I think of it (which for me, until recently, was the first option above).
I guess I don’t even know if it makes a difference. Won’t we all be exposed to it anyway, if we haven’t already? Some of us may never know if we were, and others (sadly) will know straightaway.
If we can assume that nearly all of the USA (for instance) will be exposed and “catch” it, whether tested positive or not, then is the second version of “mortality rate”, in effect, the same as the first?
I’m only asking because I honestly don’t know and there is so much speculation and confusion out there. Hoping that someone on HN who is much experienced (and maybe in the world of medical stats) can clarify this for me.
Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
#57Help me. I’m confused. Is the author saying that 1% of the people who are diagnosed with it will die? (That’s how I read it at first). Or is he saying that 1% of everyone will die? Maybe that sounds like a dumb question, but I honestly don’t know if everyone is using the term “mortality rate” the way I think of it (which for me, until recently, was the first option above). I guess I don’t even know if it makes a diff…
There are two categories of ways this can resolve:
(1) We beat the coronavirus. People no longer regularly get infected.
(2) Coronavirus is here to stay. We'll all get it eventually just like we all eventually get colds and the flu.
I think it's pretty clear at this point that (1) isn't happening, at least absent a vaccine. If we do get a vaccine, it may be a polio/measles type situation where we can eliminate the disease, or it may be a flu-type situation where we all just get vaccinated every year.
So focusing on (2), where we all get the virus. We don't know the exact mortality rate for those infected. We don't know how the rate varies for re-infections.
We do know that the mortality rate is lower if the hospitals aren't full. So the shut downs may be logical in terms of keeping the infection rate low enough that the hospitals don't fill up, if we think it's worth it.
Whether the mortality rate benefits are worth the economic harms is another question, though.
Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
#58> Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. Wouldn't that largely depend on the age of the victims? If the majority of victims are over retirement age, then this isn't likely to be true. We've had nearly 1% of our population killed or wounded in a short period of time before, it's impact on the economy doesn't seem that obvious. > 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the re…
> We've had nearly 1% of our population killed or wounded in a short period of time before
In fact, more than 1% of the population dies every single year.
Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
The IFR for the 1918 pandemic was substantially higher than 2.5%. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n... > It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States. That'd be a 10% IFR.
I think 2-2.5% frequently cited is the estimated IFR in the US.
I've only seen 2-2.5% cited as a CFR (case fatality rate) for 1918 influenza in the US, not the IFR (infection fatality rate). I don't know if those are assumed to be equivalent for are assumed to be retrospective analysis, but the CFR rate and IFR remain significantly different for COVID-19- ~4% for the all up US CFR rate and estimates anywhere from 0.1% to 1% for the COVID-19 IFR in the US.
Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
#60> Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. Wouldn't that largely depend on the age of the victims? If the majority of victims are over retirement age, then this isn't likely to be true. We've had nearly 1% of our population killed or wounded in a short period of time before, it's impact on the economy doesn't seem that obvious. > 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the re…
> We've had nearly 1% of our population killed or wounded in a short period of time before In fact, more than 1% of the population dies every single year.
It’s actually a little less than 1% a year (~2.8 million out of ~329 million people).