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Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

qz.com

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Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#61

Post by d1str0 »

ineedasername wrote: post #48
JMTQp8lwXL wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Due to the emergence of the coronavirus, Kinsa is receiving two to three times more thermometer readings per day than in previous flu seasons. Historically, Kinsa’s methods have been able to account for a sharp rise in the number of people taking tests, said Benjamin Dalziel, a professor at Oregon State University who studies infectious diseases. For his research, Dalziel has ensured that a spike in testing didn’t…

That'll teach me to rush to comment when I see something "off" instead of reading the whole thing. I'm tempted to delete a post that isn't useful now, but I should leave it as a minor embarrassing lesson to myself. I wish people would stop upvoting me though... Each one makes me cringe: another person who didn't read very carefully.

It’s a reasonable question, and the reply to your OP suggests it was accounted for but I don’t know enough about stats to say that it fully accounts for it. I would say it’s still very reasonable to be skeptical and ask if it is still biased, or still partially biased.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#62

Post by thaumasiotes »

ineedasername wrote: post #48
JMTQp8lwXL wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Due to the emergence of the coronavirus, Kinsa is receiving two to three times more thermometer readings per day than in previous flu seasons. Historically, Kinsa’s methods have been able to account for a sharp rise in the number of people taking tests, said Benjamin Dalziel, a professor at Oregon State University who studies infectious diseases. For his research, Dalziel has ensured that a spike in testing didn’t…

That'll teach me to rush to comment when I see something "off" instead of reading the whole thing. I'm tempted to delete a post that isn't useful now, but I should leave it as a minor embarrassing lesson to myself. I wish people would stop upvoting me though... Each one makes me cringe: another person who didn't read very carefully.

Eh, the response isn't exactly a slam dunk. There's a difference between saying "I thought of that, and it's not a problem" and whatever it is actually not being a problem.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#63

Post by DoreenMichele »

scrollaway wrote: post #19
sudoaza wrote: post #4

I was hoping for this, lets do social distancing a tradition for every winter

Do you really think we're going to come out of this period causing people to lose their jobs, lose their savings, lose their loved ones, not see their friends, stop going to sports and social events… and everyone's going to be like "Hey, that was fun, let's do it again next year"?

Social distancing isn't the same as lockdown. You can habitually keep your distance without being laid off, etc.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#64

Post by macintux »

ShorsHammer wrote: post #13

The lockdown of non-essential businesses has essentially reduced traffic accidents here to zero when usually there'd be a over a hundred deaths and few thousand injuries per week. By comparison there's only been 20 deaths from covid-19 over the space of 3 months, nearly all of them elderly people with pre-existing conditions. Yet people are emotional creatures and not all deaths are equal.

13 people died just yesterday in one hospital in NYC.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-...

You want a lockdown before your city turns into a medical disaster zone. Celebrate the fact that it's being done early.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#65

Post by thaumasiotes »

fiblye wrote: post #46
hackeraccount wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The danger is higher - that's exactly why we do it. It's an easy way to create intimacy with a stranger quickly. There's a reason politicians shake hands and kiss babies.

Handshakes far predate modern germ theory of disease. The "danger" doesn't really help with intimacy in any way. It's completely unnecessary danger. We'd find sharing tissues with strangers to be disgusting if it were introduced as a greeting today, but touching the hands of someone right after they've sneezed and coughed into them--after which we often unknowingly touch our own face--is regarded as a sign of intimac…

> We'd find sharing tissues with strangers to be disgusting if it were introduced as a greeting today

Sounds like you're unfamiliar with the practice of agreeing to a deal by both parties spitting into their hand and then clasping hands?

There's also the idea of making a pledge by both parties cutting their hands and then clasping hands, mixing blood with each other.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#67

Post by aaron695 »

> they may not have realized that they were also combatting other infectious diseases, such as the seasonal flu.

No, they fully realise. We have to also reduce the flu. It also takes up many ICU beds. This is vital. Any plan knows this.

Whether they are implementing measure like free Flu shots and are ramping up supply of Flu shots using the military if they have to, I doubt, because no one wants to think ahead more than a day.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#68

Post by zzleeper »

mrfusion wrote: post #49

Influenza only has an R0 of 1.3. I really wonder if we’ve managed to push it below 1.0 world wide. Pretty wild to think about. 1.3 really isn’t that much. What if all the new people who’ve started washing their hands keeps it below 1.0?

Sadly, as long as there's a large enough region where it has R0 > 1, then when we lift restrictions we'll be back to normal.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#70

Post by lukeschlather »

logicallee wrote: post #50
mrfusion wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(Removed)

This line: >Recent data clearly show the spread of Covid-19. On March 19, the share of Americans with temperatures indicating they had flu-like symptoms was about 4.9% when it typically would be expected to be about 4.0%. This was likely a result of the spread of Covid-19, according to Kinsa’s researchers. ... means that 1 week ago 2,964,898 Americans (0.9%) had Covid-19. Today there are 65,950 recorded cases in the…

The error bars on that 4% number are huge, I imagine. Like 4% - 2% or +15%. It's entirely possible you could get 4.9% with zero Covid-19 infections, just from normal variation. Not only possible but I'm sure there's a month in the past decade which had more.
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