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Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

qz.com

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Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#11

Post by nxc18 »

bluedevil2k wrote: post #6

I was thinking if we go all in on this stay-in-place and we get it working around the world, could we eliminate measles? Chicken pox? Any other human-virus disease that relies on human-to-human contact to spread?

Unfortunately, I think a more significant cause of the continued existence of these diseases is failure to vaccinate, either by choice (anti-vax) or due to circumstance (cost of vaccination, access to health care, etc).

There are several diseases that society could eradicate that we simply choose not to.

Even wealthy tech people are affected by this; I was just told my very good insurance doesn't cover a vaccine that my doctor prescribed. It would cost $400, so I need to weigh my actual risk of getting the disease against cost of vaccination. I'd think the long-term return on investment for society would justify making just about every vaccine free to all.

edit: consider how much easier it is to just get a few shots, compared to never going to a bar, restaurant, sporting event, public transit or shared workspace ever again. Going all-in on social isolation is a nonstarter, even discounting the people who won't comply (there are many) or the toxic political environment that has pitted half the US against science and expertise.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#13

Post by ShorsHammer »

The lockdown of non-essential businesses has essentially reduced traffic accidents here to zero when usually there'd be a over a hundred deaths and few thousand injuries per week. By comparison there's only been 20 deaths from covid-19 over the space of 3 months, nearly all of them elderly people with pre-existing conditions.

Yet people are emotional creatures and not all deaths are equal.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#14

Post by __s »

ShorsHammer wrote: post #13

The lockdown of non-essential businesses has essentially reduced traffic accidents here to zero when usually there'd be a over a hundred deaths and few thousand injuries per week. By comparison there's only been 20 deaths from covid-19 over the space of 3 months, nearly all of them elderly people with pre-existing conditions. Yet people are emotional creatures and not all deaths are equal.

Traffic accidents also aren't contagious

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#15

Post by Analemma_ »

ShorsHammer wrote: post #13

The lockdown of non-essential businesses has essentially reduced traffic accidents here to zero when usually there'd be a over a hundred deaths and few thousand injuries per week. By comparison there's only been 20 deaths from covid-19 over the space of 3 months, nearly all of them elderly people with pre-existing conditions. Yet people are emotional creatures and not all deaths are equal.

As of right now, covid-19 is killing about 2,200 people/day, compared to about 3,300 people/day for car accidents. So it hasn't caught up yet, but it's still on an exponential climb and will probably get there in another week or so, and then keep right on climbing.

This whole "the flu/cars/heart disease is way worse" shtick people are leaning on has got to stop. It's true until exponential growth suddenly means it's not.

EDIT: And those are the worldwide numbers. In the US specifically, covid-19 is killing about 200 people/day, compared to 100 people/day for car accidents, and is of course going to go way up from here.

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#16

Post by roywiggins »

phantom784 wrote: post #12

What about selection bias? I'd think that people are more likely to use a thermometer even if they don't feel like they have a fever now than they would have previously. That could account for numbers going down.

They think they have been able to correct for that.

> Due to the emergence of the coronavirus, Kinsa is receiving two to three times more thermometer readings per day than in previous flu seasons. Historically, Kinsa’s methods have been able to account for a sharp rise in the number of people taking tests, said Benjamin Dalziel, a professor at Oregon State University who studies infectious diseases. For his research, Dalziel has ensured that a spike in testing didn’t lead to inaccurate predictions, and so he believes the current decline in illness is a result of social distancing, and not a statistical anomaly. (Dalziel has had research funded by Kinsa in the past).

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#18

Post by [deleted] »

Analemma_ wrote: post #15
ShorsHammer wrote: post #13

The lockdown of non-essential businesses has essentially reduced traffic accidents here to zero when usually there'd be a over a hundred deaths and few thousand injuries per week. By comparison there's only been 20 deaths from covid-19 over the space of 3 months, nearly all of them elderly people with pre-existing conditions. Yet people are emotional creatures and not all deaths are equal.

As of right now, covid-19 is killing about 2,200 people/day, compared to about 3,300 people/day for car accidents. So it hasn't caught up yet, but it's still on an exponential climb and will probably get there in another week or so, and then keep right on climbing. This whole "the flu/cars/heart disease is way worse" shtick people are leaning on has got to stop. It's true until exponential growth suddenly means it's…

[deleted]

Re: Social distancing slowing not only Covid-19, but other diseases too

#19

Post by scrollaway »

sudoaza wrote: post #4

I was hoping for this, lets do social distancing a tradition for every winter

Do you really think we're going to come out of this period causing people to lose their jobs, lose their savings, lose their loved ones, not see their friends, stop going to sports and social events… and everyone's going to be like "Hey, that was fun, let's do it again next year"?
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