Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers • Hacker News Board

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#61

Post by clircle » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:38 PM UTC

ZhuanXia wrote: post #7

The shameful lies about masks not working for civilians will kill thousands. Evidence based medicine (over the modern Bayesian Science-based medicine) has paralyzed our health officials from making common sense calls off priors. Homemade masks appear to be reasonably effective. The official response should be to make some form of improvised mask required when out of home, and ration regular mask for health care worke…

I believe wide-spread use of masks is an effective measure, but i disagree that evidence-based medicine vice Bayesian belief-updating is to blame here. If masks work well, the statistical evidence will come out, regardless of the statistical tribe you belong to.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#62

Post by crankylinuxuser » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:38 PM UTC

usaar333 wrote: post #52

IAmGraydon wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can’t reduce the basic reproduction number (R0) of a pathogen. You can reduce doubling time and similar metrics of the actual spread, but R0 is a fixed number. What you are referring to is the effective reproduction number, which is the rate of spread in a population at it’s current state. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

Huh? "R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen as it is also affected by other factors such as environmental conditions and the behaviour of the infected population."

Pretty way of saying "Summer heat causes these things to go in remission" by lowering the R0 for a time.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#63

Post by ravenstine » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:38 PM UTC

chmod775 wrote: post #46

konamicode wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They just need to be put into boiling water for a few minutes to kill sars-cov-2 at 100%. I was looking for information on (high) heat killing viruses such as sars-cov-2. Are you able to point to a reliable source on this?

> I was looking for information on (high) killing viruses They're not really alive, so they can't be killed. But you can destroy vital parts of them and make them unable to reproduce. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denaturation_%28biochemistry%2...

Respectfully, I wish people would stop popping into discussions about coronavirus to say "Actually, ...".

Most educated people know that viruses aren't alive in the traditional sense. People who aren't as educated simply don't care, and I don't blame them. Using the more scientifically precise term helps nobody, except scientists, in this situation.

Should software engineers stop using the word "kill" in POSIX-land because CPU processes aren't really "alive"? Give me a break.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#64

Post by AbrahamParangi » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:38 PM UTC

GordonS wrote: post #12

ZhuanXia wrote: post #7

The shameful lies about masks not working for civilians will kill thousands. Evidence based medicine (over the modern Bayesian Science-based medicine) has paralyzed our health officials from making common sense calls off priors. Homemade masks appear to be reasonably effective. The official response should be to make some form of improvised mask required when out of home, and ration regular mask for health care worke…

I think if you're going to make a post like this, it's reasonable to expect that you present some actual evidence, or is your whole argument that we should ignore evidence? "Homemade masks appear to be reasonably effective" is hardly a compelling case.

This is by no means a personal attack but this is approximately the thought pattern the parent comment is arguing against.

Absence of evidence does not prevent you from making decisions or otherwise coming to conclusions. The fact is, you can make decisions with no evidence at all. Your outcome may be no better than chance but also likely no worse.

Not making a decision can be worse than chance, especially in time critical or low information environments and if you always “wait for the evidence” you will end up being worse than a magic 8-ball at the most crucial moments.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#65

Post by javagram » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:39 PM UTC

sacred_numbers wrote: post #59

taeric wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does Japan? Last I saw, they had an inexplicably low curve. Despite not really testing or doing other measures.

I think the reason it's inexplicably low is that they haven't really been testing.

Considering the physical proximity of Japan and China (30% of tourists to Japan are Chinese) the fact that Japanese hospitals haven’t been overwhelmed like Italy suggests the virus is not spreading as rapidly there. (Testing may also be a concern but lack of testing cannot hide overwhelmed hospitals).

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#66

Post by crankylinuxuser » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:40 PM UTC

gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #40

ZhuanXia wrote: post #15

China has half the world’s manufacturing ability, a civil service selected strongly for cognitive ability, a much more diligent and capable people, and a large population. Not to mention experience in pandemics of this type. China will become zeroth world shortly. We will have to get used to them surpassing us.

As long as they’re operating concentration camps, it’s the duty of the rest of the free world to oppose them. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-concentrationca...

You talking about the Chinese, or the US with for profit prisons and slavery enshrined in the US constitution (slavery allowed in punishment of a crime deemed guilty by 12 white men).

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#67

Post by christkv » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:42 PM UTC

A couple of weeks ago there was some news about salt treated masks deactivating virus. I just found this site that claims to make them https://vkmask.com/ anyone know anything about them? Are they real or a scam.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#68

Post by leni536 » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:50 PM UTC

AbrahamParangi wrote: post #64

GordonS wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think if you're going to make a post like this, it's reasonable to expect that you present some actual evidence, or is your whole argument that we should ignore evidence? "Homemade masks appear to be reasonably effective" is hardly a compelling case.

This is by no means a personal attack but this is approximately the thought pattern the parent comment is arguing against. Absence of evidence does not prevent you from making decisions or otherwise coming to conclusions. The fact is, you can make decisions with no evidence at all. Your outcome may be no better than chance but also likely no worse. Not making a decision can be worse than chance, especially in time cr…

There is no "not making a decision". It's not that you can make decisions without evidence, you must make a decision even without evidence. Not wearing a mask is as much as a decision as wearing one.

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#69

Post by taeric » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:51 PM UTC

javagram wrote: post #65

sacred_numbers wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the reason it's inexplicably low is that they haven't really been testing.

Considering the physical proximity of Japan and China (30% of tourists to Japan are Chinese) the fact that Japanese hospitals haven’t been overwhelmed like Italy suggests the virus is not spreading as rapidly there. (Testing may also be a concern but lack of testing cannot hide overwhelmed hospitals).

But why? I have pushed my air quality hypothesis. What other reasons are there.

And you can't just claim social distancing. Unless they have shut down their trains, where people are literally packed in, that just doesn't fly. (So, have they?)

Re: Keeping the coronavirus from infecting healthcare workers

#70

Post by pas » Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 3:53 PM UTC

sacred_numbers wrote: post #59

taeric wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does Japan? Last I saw, they had an inexplicably low curve. Despite not really testing or doing other measures.

I think the reason it's inexplicably low is that they haven't really been testing.

But there isn't a big spike in pneumonia/ER/ICU numbers either. So it's supposedly not a case of high undetected number of infected running around, laying in hospitals, and it doesn't seem like the government is trying to downplay it either, even if their testing protocol is not extensive enough. (Though they are of course incentivized due to the Summer Olympics.)