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Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

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Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#61

Post by chrisco255 »

tinix wrote: post #41
chrisco255 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CO2 is plant food. All organic species are made out of substantial amounts of carbon. The mild warming has not killed anyone and no, droughts are not more common than they were 100 years ago. Only 11,000 people died from natural disasters and weather related phenomenon last year, down from over 1,000,000 per year, 100 years ago.

Comparing death rates per disaster, per capita, between now and 100 years ago, is wholly nonsensical. Biomedical technology is immensely more effective now, than 100 years ago. It is not a 1:1 comparison. What that curve looks like, I don't know, but it's not a fair comparison to draw ratios like that. Don't get me wrong, I'm not supporting the hysteria here, by any means, or at least, that is not my intent... but c'…

CO2 is not visible. You cannot see CO2 (unless it's frozen as dry ice). Smog is caused by sulfates, not CO2. I'm all for clean burning fuel but not for smog-inducing pollution.

CO2 cannot trap or reflect visible light spectrum. It can only trap a very narrow band of infrared energy. That's what causes the minimal warming effect.

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#62

Post by seanmcdirmid »

bobthepanda wrote: post #38
sterlind wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Official numbers yes, but sometimes behavior leaks. What are wealthy/well-connected Chinese businesspeople and officials doing? Maybe there's some insider trading or money moving that could shed light on the real situation?

IIRC people used to look at things like electricity and energy use to determine real Chinese GDP growth, but I would imagine this has become less useful as the Chinese economy transitions away from heavy polluting industry and towards higher energy efficiency.

That is actually called the Li Keqiang index. Unfortunately, Li Keqiang has been mostly sidelined by Xi Jinping.

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#63

Post by culturestate »

core-questions wrote: post #59
Fomite wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, most hospitals in the Chicago area with an ICU can handle this.

The problem is that you show up with minimal symptoms like someone who has a cold, to an ER where people have serious wounds and problems. You get triaged and end up sitting in the waiting room for hours, infecting potentially tens of other people, who may have weakened immune systems, etc. and it goes on to spread around the hospital. What can the hospital even do to help you with this?

The danger of intrahospital transmission was one of the WHO's key takeaways[1] from the SARS outbreak. Mitigation seems to depend on three pillars:

1. Identify infections quickly and isolate those patients as soon as possible

2. Aggressively trace and monitor anyone in contact with those patients, including hospital staff

3. Set a very low threshold for quarantine of any person suspected of infection

Thankfully the various governments involved seem to have already started running this playbook. There's also a fairly loud public education campaign[2] underway to make sure people know what to do (call the doctor, tell them what's happening, and follow their instructions) if they show symptoms.

Note: I'm not a doctor or epidemiologist, but I split my time between Hong Kong and Singapore so I've followed this situation relatively closely.

1. https://www.who.int/csr/sars/conference/june_2003/materials/...

2. https://www.moh.gov.sg/2019-ncov-wuhan

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#64

Post by nikofeyn »

catalogia wrote: post #23
netsharc wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The numbers in the millions are the population affected by city-wide quarantines, where trains/long distance buses have been stopped from coming or leaving...

If the quarantine is indeed growing rapidly, that might suggest that Chinese officials are receiving updated information about the scope of the disease that prompts them to expand the quarantine. A growing quarantine seems to suggest they believe the disease is not yet contained.

if you have even a modicum of knowledge of china, you will understand why certain cities were shutdown. saturday is new year's day in china, and thus, thursday and friday are the two busiest travel days of the year. it's like thanksgiving and the related travel in the u.s. but on a whole other level. since wuhan, where the outbreak originated, has a population of around 10 million, the city and two surrounding cities were closed down to prevent the, then upcoming, exodus and intake of millions of people, a percentage of which would be infected or would potentially become infected and then would return to their origin city, further spreading the virus.

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#65

Post by yorwba »

handedness wrote: post #7
tempsy wrote: post #3

The market seems to be reacting to this. Hard to tell how serious it really is relative to the flu, but would not be surprised if China was underplaying the numbers, both infected and deaths.

I would not be surprised by that at all. Every Asia-focused analyst will tell you that the only aspect of China's state-reported numbers you can assume with a high degree of confidence is that they're heavily massaged for PR purposes.

Sometimes it's also possible to draw inferences by observing how the numbers were massaged. For example if you look at the red graph of confirmed cases at [1], there's a very noticeable jump from 1-17 to 1-18. Coincidentally, the third session of the 13th Hubei Provincial People's Congress concluded on January 17. [2]

[1] https://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia

[2] http://en.hubei.gov.cn/news/newslist/202001/t20200119_200642...

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#66

Post by nikofeyn »

14 wrote: post #32
tempsy wrote: post #3

The market seems to be reacting to this. Hard to tell how serious it really is relative to the flu, but would not be surprised if China was underplaying the numbers, both infected and deaths.

Even if the numbers are skewed it is already really bad imo. From my quick search at this point the virus seems to have a 4% mortality rate. The number of infections are low at this point and the spread is slow. But if my city of 35,000 people had this blast through the city and it got out of hand and only 1000 people caught it that is still 40 people statistically could die. 40 people suddenly dying in my small town…

the mortality rate is heavily skewed towards the elderly and/or already sick. from what i have read, it doesn't kill healthy young or middle aged adults.

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#67

Post by newnewpdro »

gvjddbnvdrbv wrote: post #60
core-questions wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that you show up with minimal symptoms like someone who has a cold, to an ER where people have serious wounds and problems. You get triaged and end up sitting in the waiting room for hours, infecting potentially tens of other people, who may have weakened immune systems, etc. and it goes on to spread around the hospital. What can the hospital even do to help you with this?

If you have travelled to the affected areas and have respiratory symptoms you DON'T just go to hospital. You call ahead and then do what you are told.

Only if you have the sense to do that. Have you met many Americans? I don't know why, but the ER has become the default destination for anything medical for many. There's no need to call ahead, they're open 24hrs! sigh

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#68

Post by therightstef »

secondo wrote: post #17

Both to those making claims or asking about the severity of the Wuhan coronavirus The Guardian offers a sober perspective of the current situation. We don’t yet know how dangerous the new coronavirus is – and we won’t know until more data comes in. Twenty-six deaths out of 800 reported cases would mean a 3% mortality rate. However, this is likely to be a overestimate since there may be a far larger pool of people who…

Coronavirus is very bad news, especially if you are (a) older (Most people are aware that CoV can cause pneumonia, but what really makes it devastating is that it can also attack your immune system, bowel, or kidneys depending on what cell surface receptors the strain can latch onto.[3-4]

There are some treatment options. Steroids are given to tamp down inflammation and treat pneumonia in severe cases, but have a nasty side effect of osteonecrosis (bone death). Ribavirin with interferons may or may not be effective.[5-6]

[0] https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/159/3/229/79939

[1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16759303

[2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5450662/

[3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24732781

[4] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4072739/

[5] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24493194

[6] https://academic.oup.com/jac/article/71/12/3340/2631297

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#69

Post by serf »

newnewpdro wrote: post #67
gvjddbnvdrbv wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have travelled to the affected areas and have respiratory symptoms you DON'T just go to hospital. You call ahead and then do what you are told.

Only if you have the sense to do that. Have you met many Americans? I don't know why, but the ER has become the default destination for anything medical for many. There's no need to call ahead, they're open 24hrs! sigh

>Only if you have the sense to do that. Have you met many Americans?

I don't know why this kind of 'American stereotyping' is okay.

That aside, myself and my family ('Americans' in 'America') have physicians that we call when we have issues.

That physician is generally the one to tell us what to do.

Our situation isn't abnormal or unusual, either.

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#70

Post by Meegul »

cozzyd wrote: post #25

Hmm I wonder what hospital the patient is at. According to the email sent to the uchicago community from the provost, she's not at uchicago medical. I would guess northwestern or rush.

I've read rush. It was also the designated hospital for Ebola.
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