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It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

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Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#61

Post by astazangasta »

dahart wrote: post #19
rhacker wrote: post #2

Money is strange, right? It literally doesn't exist yet it can run out and cause entire nations to go into chaos. Since it is literally a sociological experiment, are we going to get to the point where we fine tune the allotment such that we disable down-turns? It's almost as if we simply just get angsty all at once, see a global therapist and the economy recovers.

Money is strange, indeed. But disabling downturns might be something we don’t want. From the article: “Recessions are a healthy, necessary part of the economic cycle. They keep investors, businesses, and households disciplined. They remove overcapacity and make room for innovation and evolution. The US has endured 42 recessions and five depressions since the 1780s. The US economy recovered from every single one, retu…

This is idiotic. We don't need a recession to clear detritus from the economy, that should be the result of routine investment. We get recessions because the economy as a whole overcommits to speculation because investors have too much money and too little sense. This is unnecessary, as thw Great Moderation shows. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Moderation

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#62

Post by hackeraccount »

neuronic wrote: post #40
gagege wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By trying to fix the economy in one area and ignoring the effects of the fix in a bunch of other areas.

Oh right, the free market should fix this! /s

who knows more - a large number of people who have no idea what they're doing or a small number of people who have no idea what they're doing?

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#63

Post by swebs »

dalbasal wrote: post #34

I think that GDP (and therefore inflation) don't actually measure what they used to. You can measure the number of cars being produced and houses built. It doesn't really matter how you quantity value the value of a 1999 vw golf relative to the 2019 model. Once iphones, Google, Spotify & such get thrown into the mix... GDP just doesn't tell us much about how economic output has changed over the last 20 years. For the…

Maybe you want to look at Purchasing power parity (PPP) instead

https://www.investopedia.com/updates/purchasing-power-parity...

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#64

Post by sdfsaf »

helen___keller wrote: post #42
apo wrote: post #37

Quantitative easing is a powerful drug. During the 2008 crisis, most observers didn't even seriously consider the possibility that the Fed could buy long-term treasuries and mortgage securities. Those who did vastly underestimated the scale on which the Fed would eventually do so. But QE is also highly addictive. The next downturn will most likely take place within the next 18 months. It's going to catch a lot of dum…

>negative interest rates will transform the grossly distorted world economy into something completely unrecognizable Can you elaborate on this? I thought Japan had negative interest rates for quite a while

And they've been economically dying for almost 30 years.

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#65

Post by dahart »

astazangasta wrote: post #61
dahart wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money is strange, indeed. But disabling downturns might be something we don’t want. From the article: “Recessions are a healthy, necessary part of the economic cycle. They keep investors, businesses, and households disciplined. They remove overcapacity and make room for innovation and evolution. The US has endured 42 recessions and five depressions since the 1780s. The US economy recovered from every single one, retu…

This is idiotic. We don't need a recession to clear detritus from the economy, that should be the result of routine investment. We get recessions because the economy as a whole overcommits to speculation because investors have too much money and too little sense. This is unnecessary, as thw Great Moderation shows. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Moderation

We've had two recessions since the start of the Great Moderation... what is it demonstrating?

I'd agree that recessions aren't necessary in theory, under assumptions that everyone can act perfectly, but that's pretty academic.

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#66

Post by b_tterc_p »

Anon1096 wrote: post #51
basilgohar wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Upvoting because, to be honest, the moving electrons/moving dollars analogy works really well for me, and especially I think that's a useful analogy. For a society, in general, dollars sitting idle in a bank account instead of being spent on something constructive or services where someone is getting paid for work or something of utility is being built/created are not, from my perspective, useful to that society. Sur…

If you think money is just sitting in a bank account then you misunderstand how the economy works. Money in a bank gets reinvested by the bank and funds loans, mortgages, and credit. The only money that isn't moving is dollars literally stuffed under a mattress and what the bank keeps on hand to fulfill reserve requirements.

Sort of. Banks want to loan out money. But when consumer spending drops, they loan out less. In a recession there is more risk, so it’s harder to find profitable loans to make. The money does get stuck.

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#67

Post by sandworm101 »

swebs wrote: post #56
sandworm101 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Totally depends on definition of "homeless". Some use a definition based on whether someone has a roof over their head most nights, the narrowest definition possible. I prefer a definition based on legal rights: Does the person have property rights (owners/renters/housing benefits etc) in a stable domicile. That means those couch surfing, in shelters and illegal residences are counted as homeless alongside the people…

>The concept of someone having a fulltime job and still not able to afford rent is new Does that happen anywhere outside of San Francisco?

I'm nowhere near SF and the cheapest rent in town is 1400/month. That's a one-room basement, quasi-legal, basement suite under a house beside the airport. So ... ya.

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#69

Post by randallsquared »

blts wrote: post #58
Nasrudith wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah even putting aside demand (just because someone spent 50 years making one really good vase doesn't mean 50 years of pottery wouldn't be better even if the potter had to dredge all of the clay themselves instead of using apprentices or hired servants) it has been obviously broken since the Industrial revolution at least but had predecessor cases that pointed out it wasn't true. Aquaducts or irrigation canals alon…

You mistakenly equate effort with value.

They're explicitly arguing against equating effort (labor) with value.

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#70

Post by neuronic »

hackeraccount wrote: post #62
neuronic wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh right, the free market should fix this! /s

who knows more - a large number of people who have no idea what they're doing or a small number of people who have no idea what they're doing?

Let's pick EPA for a second here. It's a bit rich to claim they have no idea what they are doing and should be abolished because the free market would fix the world around it.

For example, let's cherry-pick the Clean Air Act and its effects: "In addition, because air quality across the United States improved; it is estimated 205,000 premature deaths and millions of other respiratory complications were prevented which resulted in an economic savings of $50 trillion versus the $523 billion invested to meet the Clean Air Act standard."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clean_Air_Act_(United_States)#...

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