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India will overtake the US economy by 2030

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Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#61

Post by alphagrep12345 »

anticodon wrote: post #55
olcor wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> where expats can return to without incurring a major loss in QOL or effective wages. I’m moving back to India soon (NYC -> Mumbai). My quality of life will likely increase; wages will not even be close (savings rate might be the same though). Which cities are on your mind for this?

Quality of life is not only income. It's also infrastructure, environment, many other things. I had only briefly visited Mumbai, but visited many big cities in India. They're extremely noisy, congested, air quality is poor. Power and Internet outages are frequent. There no parks in most Asian cities so if you're tired and want to relax in a quiet place under the trees you should drive for hours out of the city.

I feel 90% of the quality issues can be handled by being more proactive. Stay at a community with good trees, buy only organic, drink only mineral water, etc.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#62

Post by anticodon »

alphagrep12345 wrote: post #61
anticodon wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quality of life is not only income. It's also infrastructure, environment, many other things. I had only briefly visited Mumbai, but visited many big cities in India. They're extremely noisy, congested, air quality is poor. Power and Internet outages are frequent. There no parks in most Asian cities so if you're tired and want to relax in a quiet place under the trees you should drive for hours out of the city.

I feel 90% of the quality issues can be handled by being more proactive. Stay at a community with good trees, buy only organic, drink only mineral water, etc.

Yes, every problem has a solution but a solution also has a cost. For example, you may return back to India from Western country and try to keep the same level of income, but you'll find out soon that a community with good trees is more expensive compared to the same quality of life in the West.

Asia can be cheap, but if you want the same quality of life, same level of education, etc, it actually cost more than in the West.

I currently live and work in Cambodia and education here is extremely expensive, maybe more expensive than in Singapore. But quality of the education... I don't want to describe it because I'll be probably banned if I tried to describe it.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#63

Post by changchuming »

pacala wrote: post #42
bdod6 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of that speculative growth comes from Turkey's comparatively younger population (hence more productive hours worked each day), and their continued population growth. Germany's demographics are sliding the other way, with an aging and stagnating population.

Everything you said applies today to the demographic pyramids of the respective 2 countries, with only an 11 years delta. And yet Germany has 5x the GDP. https://www.populationpyramid.net/turkey/2019/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/turkey/2030/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2019/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2030/

Germany had 10x the GDP of Turkey twenty years ago. That just proves that Turkey has caught up a lot. Demographics take a long time to have an effect on GDP, they're just forecasting that the tipping point is 2030.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#64

Post by anticodon »

olcor wrote: post #58
anticodon wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quality of life is not only income. It's also infrastructure, environment, many other things. I had only briefly visited Mumbai, but visited many big cities in India. They're extremely noisy, congested, air quality is poor. Power and Internet outages are frequent. There no parks in most Asian cities so if you're tired and want to relax in a quiet place under the trees you should drive for hours out of the city.

Exactly; quality of life isn't income (if that was the case, I wouldn't be bothering to move). It's all you say; it's also food you're used to, the people around you, family ties, the freedom to have multiple income streams without your visa blocking you, and also the lack of worry that you'll be thrown out of the country. There is a tradeoff I am making, and weirdly India is better off in it. I will miss the good ai…

Fully agree.

I also hate obtaining visas and other bureaucratic issues, worrying if you'll obtain the visa next year, not being able to speak your own language when you want to relax and hang up with the friends, etc.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#65

Post by handsomechad »

onetimemanytime wrote: post #18
cromwellian wrote: post #11

As Andrew Yang has pointed out, GDP is a pretty poor measurement, and at least in China's case, not transparent and most likely inflated by localities self-reporting to meet central government targets. GDP is proportional to population, so if you have a larger population, your GDP can be proportionately larger. The question is, what's GDP per capita or GDP per capita PPP? China per capita GDP is 1/7th-1/8th of the US…

OK, but can't China or India take x% of GDP and built their military with it? Go ahead and fight someone spending 2x as much as you

why did this get downvoted, my first thought was exactly along these lines. does anyone have an answer?

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#66

Post by inferiorhuman »

asark wrote: post #25
reversengineer wrote: post #20

PPP is and always will be a garbage metric. Don't compare my Pepperidge Farm 15-Grain bread, sold for $3 a loaf at the supermarket with steamed buns sold for ￥1 each on the street.

I want a "good cheese, good wine, good bread" price comparison metric. By that measure, my money in the US only goes like 1/2-1/3 as far as the same amount in France, since it takes about 2-3x the money to consistently match the quality of their bog-standard stuff in those categories. Usually a good bit of travel time, too, in the case of bread. :-( [EDIT] actually 3x might be low on the bread. 3.5-4x, probably, arou…

For me this is one of the biggest draws of New York: the food. New York has just an amazing breadth of food available at all price points. You can find very decent $1 slices of pizza (people lost their shit when DiFara started charging $5/slice). The Bay Area as well has a ton of excellent food options as well but prices tend to be higher across the board. And if you're using food costs as a metric, that's just one of a few different areas in which the Bay Area has become dramatically more expensive than other expensive metro areas (NY, HK, Singapore) and it's infuriating.

I've seen some complaints that there's no real bread culture in the Bay Area compared to Europe (and especially France), and to that I said (and will continue to say) bullshit. There are still a ton of bakeries in most areas, and you can find the more mass produced stuff for about $4/1lb loaf (a baguette would be around half the price). And the diversity blows any typical European city out of the water. You can find good sour dough, sweet French bread, Italian bread, rye, etc. in nearly any supermarket. Sure, there were many more bakeries in San Francisco about a century ago (r.i.p. Parisian), but you can walk into a Trader Joe's and get a loaf of sourdough bread that is right up there with anything from my childhood. You can find good (great if you have the patience) croissants too (and, honestly, finding a truly great croissant in Paris is a bit of a challenge these days anyhow). The only thing we really lack out here bread-wise is a good bagel.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#67

Post by hiyer »

vkou wrote: post #54
olcor wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ha! I had a similar experience in the valley (mountain view) during an interview. Took me 15 minutes more, and I got late for my first round. Driving in NYC is out of the question any time of day.

Fortunately, you can get around NYC reasonably quickly without driving.

Same applies to lots of cities in India as well, like Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#68

Post by bobbydreamer »

Don't know about china. India will overtake in population maybe but definitely not in other categories( education, innovation, discipline, military, health, agriculture, infrastructure). In 2001-2005 the story was about 2020. In another 10 years no way, in the present scenario in 100 years also no way.

Why law & politics ? It's pay per use.

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