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India will overtake the US economy by 2030

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Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#11

Post by cromwellian »

As Andrew Yang has pointed out, GDP is a pretty poor measurement, and at least in China's case, not transparent and most likely inflated by localities self-reporting to meet central government targets.

GDP is proportional to population, so if you have a larger population, your GDP can be proportionately larger. The question is, what's GDP per capita or GDP per capita PPP? China per capita GDP is 1/7th-1/8th of the US, and India per capita GDP is 1/30th of the US, will they make it up in 10 years? China could, if they can keep up their growth and not experience a major recession or depression, which seems unlikely.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#12

Post by ben_jones »

remarkEon wrote: post #4
KorematsuFred wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, USA has been a paragon of virtue in intellectual property matters.

While true that the US is no saint in this regard, the scale of IP theft by China is industrial, and well known.

Yes imagine if Thomas Edison had had his inventions stolen! American ingenuity stands on our patent system.

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#13

Post by naravara »

point78 wrote: post #2

Not hard to do when you don't respect the intellectual property of anyone and close off your market

Is it that surprising that a nominally communist government wouldn't put much stock in the concept of "intellectual property," which is even more vague and questionable than the concept of private property?

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#14

Post by vkou »

ben_jones wrote: post #12
remarkEon wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While true that the US is no saint in this regard, the scale of IP theft by China is industrial, and well known.

Yes imagine if Thomas Edison had had his inventions stolen! American ingenuity stands on our patent system.

Imagine if Thomas Edison built his inventions off the ideas, and prototypes of others... Without crediting, or compensating them.

Which he did. [1]

[1] He even engaged in outright theft - copying, and selling bootleg movies, for Pete's sake's! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Trip_to_the_Moon

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#16

Post by bretpiatt »

In PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) they will, in real dollars China is forecasted to but India won't be close. As a US based tech company my customers pay me in real dollars so we use real vs. PPP for our market size analysis.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/271724/forecast-for-the-...

In real dollars the US ($19T) still has a substantial lead on China ($12T) today so the 2030 forecasts assume continued substantial growth for China.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.cd?year_hig...

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#17

Post by [deleted] »

cromwellian wrote: post #11

As Andrew Yang has pointed out, GDP is a pretty poor measurement, and at least in China's case, not transparent and most likely inflated by localities self-reporting to meet central government targets. GDP is proportional to population, so if you have a larger population, your GDP can be proportionately larger. The question is, what's GDP per capita or GDP per capita PPP? China per capita GDP is 1/7th-1/8th of the US…

[deleted]

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#18

Post by onetimemanytime »

cromwellian wrote: post #11

As Andrew Yang has pointed out, GDP is a pretty poor measurement, and at least in China's case, not transparent and most likely inflated by localities self-reporting to meet central government targets. GDP is proportional to population, so if you have a larger population, your GDP can be proportionately larger. The question is, what's GDP per capita or GDP per capita PPP? China per capita GDP is 1/7th-1/8th of the US…

OK, but can't China or India take x% of GDP and built their military with it? Go ahead and fight someone spending 2x as much as you

Re: India will overtake the US economy by 2030

#19

Post by outlace »

cromwellian wrote: post #11

As Andrew Yang has pointed out, GDP is a pretty poor measurement, and at least in China's case, not transparent and most likely inflated by localities self-reporting to meet central government targets. GDP is proportional to population, so if you have a larger population, your GDP can be proportionately larger. The question is, what's GDP per capita or GDP per capita PPP? China per capita GDP is 1/7th-1/8th of the US…

But if current dominant country A has GDP of 100 units and rival country B is poised to get to 150 units, then won't country B be able to wield more economic power than country A even though country B's GDP/person is lower?

It's sort of like a company that has 100 units of revenue and 20 units of costs versus a company with 150 units of revenue and 90 units of cost, the one with greater revenue may still have more economic power (e.g. ability to leverage suppliers, etc) despite having lower profit margin.

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