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Apple's iPhone Shipments Plunge in China as Huawei Tightens Grip

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Re: Apple's iPhone Shipments Plunge in China as Huawei Tightens Grip

#61
post #9

I’d expect the same to happen in a recession in the western world. People do not buy luxury products in a recession and if they absolutely need to replace a device, will pick one half the price that’s good enough. Though the business model of tech giant is new, for most, the market in which they evolve isn’t. Facebook and Google’s revenues are essentially advertising, another source of revenues that is very pro-cycli…

Manufacturers will ensure phone companies ensure customers buy new phones. In the odd event that my iPhone lasts the 24months without having a major hardware hickup (such as being shattered), somehow all the rebates disappear from my plan. A rep from my phone company calls me and says I can get a new 24 months plan WITH a new iphone, and since the new one would get the rebates I just lost, it's effectively the same m…

That only works in countries that are contract driven, in those where pre-pay rules, not so much.

Re: Apple's iPhone Shipments Plunge in China as Huawei Tightens Grip

#62

China's economy is looking scary at this point. Also from Bloomberg: Chinese consumer tax receipts down 70% in November. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-31/china-...

The corporate bond defaults [1] are also interesting as a tell on their real situation. I'll be curious to see if the central government relents and unleashes a far larger stimulus as it appears there isn't going to be a trade deal near-term. Granted, you've also got Germany in a de facto recession and the UK inching toward one [2]. If the US can maintain a 2.5%+ GDP growth pace for 2019 against all of that, it'll be…

> Granted, you've also got Germany in a de facto recession

Added to that, Deutsche Bank's recent "funding woes" (to quote the FT) personally give me a bad vibe, not sure if we're at the "summer 2007 phase" of Northern Rock's troubles [2] or if we're already in the "early September 2008 phase", i.e. a couple of weeks before Lehman fell. The nastier news is that, afaik, Deutsche is (was?) seen as being supported by the German government (the same as Volkswagen, for example), even more than the Wall Street investment banks were supported by Washington, and if Deutsche falls that will reflect very, very badly on the perceived financial soundness of the German government and hence of Europe as a whole.

[1] https://www.ft.com/content/cb739552-2c5d-11e9-8744-e7016697f...

[2] http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6996136.stm

Re: Apple's iPhone Shipments Plunge in China as Huawei Tightens Grip

#64
post #59
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> iPhone XS costs $1,270 for the entry level model. Indeed, but they also have the "3rd world iPhone" models - respins of previous generations and "C" model which were to supposedly cater to this market. They greatly overestimated willingness of locals into buying "poor man's Rolce Royce editions"

Who would buy a previous generation iPhone when they can buy a modern Android generation phone for the half the price?

Because the previous gen iPhone will still be faster than the current gen Android and probably supported for longer?

Re: Apple's iPhone Shipments Plunge in China as Huawei Tightens Grip

#65
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that Chinese are extremely patriotic Like in most countries where education is tightly controlled by the government, patriotism is a result of state propaganda. > how "the foreign powers" treated them in the past. The worst thing that happened to Chinese was not the way foreign powers treated them, but what came after under their own ruling party.

I don't know if you know the colonial history of China.

Let me share with you some interesting piece of history:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward

Re: Apple's iPhone Shipments Plunge in China as Huawei Tightens Grip

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

A great deal of those died due to a famine. If one compares China’s development with India’s you see that over 100 million extra Indians have died since 1947 due to worse medical outcomes. (Amyarta Sen)

The famine was a result of collectivization, which had led to disastrous results in other countries which tried that before: such as the USSR experiments in Ukraine. Plus:

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward#Consequence...

> The failure of agricultural policies, the movement of farmers from agricultural to industrial work, and weather conditions led to millions of deaths from severe famine. Many also died from quota-based executions instituted by government officials. The economy, which had improved since the end of the civil war, was devastated.

Re: Apple's iPhone Shipments Plunge in China as Huawei Tightens Grip

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bringing up a fact of 50-80 million lives lost is not “picking on” something.

The number of 50-80 million comes from the book "Black Book of Communism", which in itself is highly controversial and whose co-authors disassociated themselves from the author due to the methodology used. So take these numbers with grain of salt and consider the book and its claim just a propaganda tool.

> It is widely regarded by historians that The Great Leap resulted in tens of millions of deaths.[3] A lower-end estimate is 18 million, while extensive research by Chinese historian Yu Xiguang suggests the death toll from the movement is closer to 55.6 million.[4] Fellow historian Frank Dikötter asserts that "coercion, terror, and systematic violence were the foundation of the Great Leap Forward" and it "motivated one of the most deadly mass killings of human history".[5]

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward

So your point is? Regardless of the actual figures, it was probably the worst genocide of History.

Re: Apple's iPhone Shipments Plunge in China as Huawei Tightens Grip

#69
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do the 3 cameras do?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe this means three "lenses" on the main camera, not three cameras. And I'm excited to see what future cameras with multiple lenses, synthetic aperture techniques, and lots of computation will provide.

There are 3 cameras with 3 individual sensors and their associated lenses. [0]

[0] https://www.androidauthority.com/huawei-p20-pro-teardown-853...

Re: Apple's iPhone Shipments Plunge in China as Huawei Tightens Grip

#70
Roger McNamee seems to get it, the iPhone was probably the most successful technology product in history, and arguably the "most" successful in anything. It leads to a sea of other innovation across multiple spectrum.

On the Notes of Retail, Apple had ~430 Stores in 2014, ~460 in 2015. As of end 2018 it is ~510, all the stores opened in 2015 were planned before Angela's arrival, so effectively she has slowed down the opening of new Apple Store under her tenure. During that time, Apple grew from ~800M Active Devices to 1.4B, that is 600M Devices increase, but less than 60 new Stores opened, if you are wondering why it is so crowed you cant even breath in Apple Store, that is why.

In 2015 I made a prediction that Apple could be aiming at 1B iPhone users by 2020. It seems crazy at the time, and a lot of people did call me so. But as of 2019 Apple has 900M iPhone users, so the 1B iPhone users doesn't seems to far off. I also thought Apple should be aiming at 1000 Apple Stores world wide. Apple Retail were growing at approximately 10+% before 2015, it was possible to reach ~750 by 2020, now not only have they not accelerated, they slowed down.

From reading all the latest Interview, it finally seems to me this luxury Apple idea didn't came from Angela herself. It came from Tim Cook ( or may be even Jonny Ive ), he wanted Apple to be more luxurious ( Apple Watch Gold Edition in 2016 ), and get Angela on board to try and help shaping the Retail part. Angela never wanted the job in the first place, but Tim Cook talked her into it. And one reason why her salary package were the highest in Apple.

I hope having Deirdre O'Brien meant Tim Cook gave up this idea of luxurious Apple. At least not luxurious in the normal sense, Apple is an affordable luxury in tech world, and that is drastically different to clothing or Jewelry industry. iPhone needs After sales services, and you cant rely on a small number of Apple store to provide adequate services to its customers and loyal users.

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