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What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

economist.com

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Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#61

Post by simonh »

jstanley wrote: post #18
Findeton wrote: post #5

Well, I'm kind of expecting that the no-deal scenario will actually happen. Then a big economic crisis will follow, making it palatable for politicians to actually endorse a new referendum. I'm not saying what the question in such referendum would be, though. And actually, this is the reason why some remainers are voting no to the brexit deal, and it's not even a secret.

Why would a big economic crisis follow a no-deal brexit?

Let me count the ways.

* All our manufacturing exports to Europe would suffer tariffs. 10% on cars for example.

* All our agricultural exports would be hit by tariffs.

* The legal basis for many of our financial services provided to Europe would disappear. Clearing for example.

* Imports and exports would suddenly be subject to customs inspections, introducing delays. No arrangements are in place for this.

* Many goods manufactured in Europe only count if a certain % of value comes from Europe. Parts made in the UK would not count anymore so European manufacturers using our parts would have to find alternatives. Cars are another big example, but there are many more.

* We would lose access to all the trade deals with non EU countries negotiated through the EU, which is (almost) all of them. E.g. the big new trade deal negotiated with Canada would no longer apply. Some minor trade deals through the commonwealth might survive, but it’s not much.

* We would probably end up defaulting on our €38bn obligations to the EU. Not as bad as a sovereign debt default, but not by much.

* Oh, and we’d probably also be in violation of our treaty obligations under the Good Friday Agreement, with unanticipatable consequences in Northern Ireland, except it wouldn’t be good.

So high end manufacturing and agriculture devastated, remaining trade (globally) obstructed, financial services crippled, debt default, political instability in NI. Some of those might be cushioned, but there’s no way it can all be significantly mitigated in a few months.

My hope is some sort of keep-it-as-it-is-for-now deal could be worked out. But that’s basically the May plan anyway.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#62

Post by jstanley »

jhcl wrote: post #56

That site has the cookie policy from hell. Go to the site, ctrl-a, ctrl-c, ctrl-v into a pad and close the browser tab. Then you will have the information without having to deal with their corporate madness.

If you use Firefox, Reader Mode is quite effective against this site, and many others.

It's the little "text document" icon in the address bar.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#63

Post by jimnotgym »

Spivak wrote: post #47
tdb7893 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if for things like joining our leaving the EU we should make them get at least 60ish percent of the vote. Simple majorities have a tendency to ping-pong back and forth so it doesn't seem optional for huge systemic changes.

I absolutely agree but that's the kind of decision that has to be made a priori. Moving the goalposts after the results are in isn't very democratic.

Holding referendums in a representative democracy could be argued as undemocratic.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#64

Post by simonh »

jstanley wrote: post #48
jimnotgym wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They may be voting no to the Brexit deal purely because they don't agree with it. But you are painting this as a binary situation of 'The Deal' vs No deal. There is a third option, withdrawing notice to leave. Parliament can choose to remain without any kind of referendum. In fact there was a case heard by the ECJ today to clarify this very fact. The UK's option to remain was undisputed, and the remaining legal argum…

Fancy that. Group of people who don't want a decision to go through got together and decided that there won't be any punishment if the decision doesn't go through.

What would anyone be punished for?

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#65

Post by jimnotgym »

callumprentice wrote: post #55

Is Brexit inevitable or might the upcoming vote in parliament derail it? If so, how would that work? Everything goes back to the way it was some 2 years or so ago?

No, parliament could choose to withdraw their notice to leave. They are pretending they can't for political reasons, but it is far from inevitable

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#66

Post by jimnotgym »

cletus wrote: post #58

I think at this point we can safely say that the Brexit was a protest vote against immigration that got out of hand (in that it got >50% of the vote) and the UK is now left to pick up the pieces. Look into this for even a few minutes and you'll come to a conclusion that leaving the EU is a ridiculous idea. - The Good Friday agreement gives the UK the obligation to maintain an open border with the Republic of Ireland…

> The UK regaining sovereignty over territorial waters for fishing purposes. These waters have been heavily overfished and the tragedy of the commons has definitely applied here. Ironically when the EC was originally formed the UK refused to join. Had they done so they would've maintained sovereignty over territorial waters. When they later joined they didn't.

I don't think this is going to happen at all. Most fish landed in the UK are exported to the EU. Kicking out their fisherman and then selling them the fish sounds like a very unlikely outcome to me. Macron has already flagged this

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#67

Post by simonh »

clarkmoody wrote: post #2

Some Brexiteers favour a radical response: get rid of all tariffs on imports, as Hong Kong, Macao and Singapore have done. Extravagant assumptions about the benefits of this explain why some pro-Brexit economists see no deal as much less damaging than most of their colleagues. But tariff abolition would have huge effects on agriculture and some types of manufacturing. The government has no plans for such an extirpati…

Hong Kong, Macao and Singapore have developed under their respective trade regimes. Britain has developed under another and has huge industries employing millions of people dependent on the current trade regime.

Switching to a different model in a controlled way has a reasonable chance to be beneficial in the long run. Switching off the conditions under which the current system operates would be guaranteed to be catastrophic immediately.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#68

Post by simonh »

Findeton wrote: post #30
jdlyga wrote: post #3

So, why do it? Should a razor thin majority in a public vote 2 years ago decide the UK's policy forever?

In the UK parliament voting system, you vote for the individual, not the party list. Thus MPs won't do anything that makes them lose votes. Voting for a bad deal (even though it's the best deal you'll get) will make you lose votes in the next election, even more so if the deal is actually approved. It's very easy to criticize from the fences when that gets you more votes. That's basically the reason why Boris Johnson…

I think that’s why Nigel Farage quit politics immediately. No way that /edit/ guy /end edit/ is going to risk taking any responsibility for the consequences.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#69

Post by jimnotgym »

jstanley wrote: post #54
jimnotgym wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> punishment What on earth are you talking about?

Presumably the only way the ECJ can enforce any of its rulings is by some sort of punishment if you don't agree with what they suggest?

The ECJ is ruling on whether the EU members can stop the UK withdrawing it's notice. The EU members will of course be bound by this, if Britain withdraws it's notice to leave it will still be in the EU so of course it will be bound.

You have a habit of jumping on these EU threads j? It feels like trolling to me.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#70

Post by lifeisstillgood »

One thing that recently struck me about Brexit was how much it represents a "States Rights" problem.

Apart from the "ever closer union" of the EU (which frankly has to have fiscal union once it has monetary union), Brexit has highlighted the unresolved "states" or kingdoms of the UK - an English majority of voters is driving a decision that every other state chose not to do. We don't have a balancing Senate to defend smaller states (hell we don't have an elected second chamber - in fact we have more unelected members of parliament than we do elected!!)

We do have a need to look at a constitution and upper chamber again - we have a lot of things to sort out whatever happens with brexit

(basically brexit vote was the bit in the awkward family gathering where one person shouts out "i never liked your ex husband" and suddenly all the disagreements come tumbling out.

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