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BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

reuters.com

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Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#61

Post by this_user »

kazen44 wrote: post #54
BadassFractal wrote: post #19

Great, more opportunity for Tesla to scale up and eat their lunch. Innovator's dilemma at work.

The problem is, tesla is not a car manfucturer. They make a tiny amount of cars compared to the masses that BMW, VW and the likes produce. Also, tesla has an enourmous fault tolerance compared to these guys, not to mention they produce cars which are quite more complex. You cannot afford to "patch up" cars if you are producing thousands a week, that would make you run out of money very quickly.

Given their repeated failure to reach their target on production numbers for the Model 3, their lack of experience in mass production really seems to be the problem. The question then becomes whether Tesla can figure this out before traditional car companies catch up to them in terms of technology. If they do manage to capture the EV mass market with the Model 3, the others will likely be in trouble.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#62

Post by mulmen »

vinhboy wrote: post #2

This has been said many times, but it feels like all the manufacturers colluded to make EV cars extremely ugly and undesirable. Prime example being the BMW i3. Of all the nice looking cars they have in their line up, one has to wonder why they went with an i3. Put that same capability in a 3-series and it would have been a different story.

There are rumors of an all-electric 3 series. I assume the i3 drivetrain would not have been feasible inside a 3 series and scaling it up would have made the 3 far too expensive to be practical.

The i3 is a BMW Prius essentially. Think of it like a modern Isetta. In that context I think it actually looks very nice. At least it doesn't have love handles.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#63

Post by rhizome »

vinhboy wrote: post #2

This has been said many times, but it feels like all the manufacturers colluded to make EV cars extremely ugly and undesirable. Prime example being the BMW i3. Of all the nice looking cars they have in their line up, one has to wonder why they went with an i3. Put that same capability in a 3-series and it would have been a different story.

I love both the i3 and i8 and would love to own both.

I imagine one factor in not putting i3 guts in a 3 series is that the i3 is about 2/3 the size and weight of an F30.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#64

Post by kazen44 »

ecpottinger wrote: post #60
kazen44 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is usually the case. Retooling an assembly line is a ton of work, and NOT producing at scale is impossible for modern, highly automated car factories like VW, Mercedes or BMW own. Producing 100 cars is simply not possible in these factories, because it would mean massive losses to the factory owner. Also, car manufacturers do not want one supplier for a part, they want several. Mostly as a backup and also to mak…

Sorry, but that does not ring true to me. I used to work on the assembly at a GM truck plant, and one of the amazing things was the range of different units that came down the line. I find it hard to believe that the major car plants can no longer make assembly lines that produce more than one design on an assembly line. Also by that logic there should be no Nissan Leaf. Last but not least, if BMW waits too long they…

> I find it hard to believe that the major car plants can no longer make assembly lines that produce more than one design on an assembly line.

this is not the problem i described.

The problem is introducing a new model into an assembly line is a lot of work, and something which is not worth the effort if you are only going to produce a small amount of cars.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#65

Post by mulmen »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #10
vinhboy wrote: post #2

This has been said many times, but it feels like all the manufacturers colluded to make EV cars extremely ugly and undesirable. Prime example being the BMW i3. Of all the nice looking cars they have in their line up, one has to wonder why they went with an i3. Put that same capability in a 3-series and it would have been a different story.

Cannibalizing your existing products is a hard sell in an established organization. It's why businesses like Tesla are able to innovate more rapidly. They have no internal combustion product to compete with, and they don't have to save anything for the swim back (succeed or die). EDIT: This isn't restricted to just the auto industry. Consider the need for Lockheed to create their Skunk Works team [1]. [1] https://en.…

I don't see the similarity to the Skunk Works. Lockheed developed the Skunk Works planes in secret because they were... secret planes. The CIA doesn't make a habit of advertising our surveillance capabilities.

I see the Skunk Works planes as similar to the Corvette or Viper or Supra or i8 or any other top of the line car. It's something you think of in the back of your mind when you buy a Malibu, Neon, Corolla or 3 Series.

Maybe I am blind to some other part of Skunk Works history that you are referring to.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#66

Post by Brakenshire »

rwbt wrote: post #40
vinhboy wrote: post #2

This has been said many times, but it feels like all the manufacturers colluded to make EV cars extremely ugly and undesirable. Prime example being the BMW i3. Of all the nice looking cars they have in their line up, one has to wonder why they went with an i3. Put that same capability in a 3-series and it would have been a different story.

I'm not sure if you know how innovative the BMW i3 is. They decided to go for an entirely different manufacturing process using Carbon Fibre instead of traditional steel stamping and it's entire supply chain is built on renewable energy. That's a big commitment on BMWs part. Alas, the market didn't think of it the same way. The i3 might not be a looker but it's probably one of the most innovative cars ever produced i…

> Alas, the market didn't think of it the same way. The i3 might not be a looker

...from an American perspective. The i3 doesn't sell much in the US, but is I think the second highest selling EV in Europe at the moment, people here apparently don't have any problem with the way it looks.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#67

Post by adrianN »

lumberjack wrote: post #55
sweden wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is certainly a relutance from car companies to start making electric cars and the proof of that is Tesla. They have been fighting hard for years to secure supply chains for their battery packs, what's stopping the current car companies of doing the same with their infinite cash reserves? Why are they only starting now when Tesla has been planning it for years? Also, you are giving those numbers without any sour…

Way I see it Tesla proves that a mass market EV is still not possible. Either you take it from the fact that they failed to come up with anything revolutionary in terms of the Model 3; price/range still on par with other offerings. Or you take their lowest cost estimates for their battery packs and then you try to build the rest of the car with the remaining $12k (for the total price of a people's car that everyone c…

The German Post approached VW to have them develop electric cars for deliveries in cities. VW refused, so they just hired a couple of students and started/bought their own company. They get requests from all kinds of businesses now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/StreetScooter

To me that doesn't sound like there is no market, it sounds like big car manufactures want to milk their ICEs as long as possible.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#68

Post by toomuchtodo »

mulmen wrote: post #65
toomuchtodo wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cannibalizing your existing products is a hard sell in an established organization. It's why businesses like Tesla are able to innovate more rapidly. They have no internal combustion product to compete with, and they don't have to save anything for the swim back (succeed or die). EDIT: This isn't restricted to just the auto industry. Consider the need for Lockheed to create their Skunk Works team [1]. [1] https://en.…

I don't see the similarity to the Skunk Works. Lockheed developed the Skunk Works planes in secret because they were... secret planes. The CIA doesn't make a habit of advertising our surveillance capabilities. I see the Skunk Works planes as similar to the Corvette or Viper or Supra or i8 or any other top of the line car. It's something you think of in the back of your mind when you buy a Malibu, Neon, Corolla or 3 S…

Apologies, I didn't make the connection as well as I would've liked.

You either build the innovator internally (Skunk Works), or you let your innovative competitors eat your lunch. Someone with less bureaucracy and incentive to maintain the status quo is going to innovate.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#69

Post by sweden »

lumberjack wrote: post #55
sweden wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is certainly a relutance from car companies to start making electric cars and the proof of that is Tesla. They have been fighting hard for years to secure supply chains for their battery packs, what's stopping the current car companies of doing the same with their infinite cash reserves? Why are they only starting now when Tesla has been planning it for years? Also, you are giving those numbers without any sour…

Way I see it Tesla proves that a mass market EV is still not possible. Either you take it from the fact that they failed to come up with anything revolutionary in terms of the Model 3; price/range still on par with other offerings. Or you take their lowest cost estimates for their battery packs and then you try to build the rest of the car with the remaining $12k (for the total price of a people's car that everyone c…

I have to disagree, most of the current electric car offerings on the market are more expensive than the base price of the Model 3 (looking at the BMW i3 in Europe, the base price is 45000 dollars).

Tesla is a company that was built from the ground up, without any prior design and manufacturing experience, and they have been mass producing cars for only 5 or 6 years. You can't simply expect them to have the same business agility as BWM, which is a company with over 1 century old.

The lack of "better" product offerings from Tesla is not due to the technology, is due to the infancy of the company.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#70

Post by mulmen »

adrianN wrote: post #67
lumberjack wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Way I see it Tesla proves that a mass market EV is still not possible. Either you take it from the fact that they failed to come up with anything revolutionary in terms of the Model 3; price/range still on par with other offerings. Or you take their lowest cost estimates for their battery packs and then you try to build the rest of the car with the remaining $12k (for the total price of a people's car that everyone c…

The German Post approached VW to have them develop electric cars for deliveries in cities. VW refused, so they just hired a couple of students and started/bought their own company. They get requests from all kinds of businesses now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/StreetScooter To me that doesn't sound like there is no market, it sounds like big car manufactures want to milk their ICEs as long as possible.

I'm thinking of starting a blog about RC planes, but I'm going to outsource the development. I submitted a bid to IBM but they haven't replied!

On top of that Boeing said they're not interested in assembling my plane!

Clearly these incumbents are holding me back.

/s

Sarcasm aside maybe it just wasn't worth it to VW to take on a relatively small project outside of their core competency?

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