China using big data to detain people before crime is committed • Hacker News Board

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#61

Post by jstarfish » Wed, Feb 28, 2018, 9:39 PM UTC

IntronExon wrote: post #50

majormajor wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A less militarized society could reach the same point. "Sending in the special cops with guns" === "sending in the tanks and bombers." In both cases the government withholds superior strength for itself, regardless of the baseline. The question of "are people willing to risk their life" and "is the government willing to kill in large numbers" seem unchanged.

Sure, but that assumes a government willing to literally go to war with its populace, and why I explicitly said a war would be required. I have no illusions about how that war would end of course... tanks and B-52’s reliably best handguns and rifles. The difference between a country drowning in guns and one without them is that in the latter case it’s just that much easier, a “lower barrier to entry” if you will.

> I have no illusions about how that war would end of course... tanks and B-52’s reliably best handguns and rifles.

Plenty of US adversaries have met these odds and held their own. Aside from some targeted campaigns to eradicate individuals, we haven't truly "won" any notable military conflict since 1945.

IEDs tend to level the playing field, but see how far you get trying to build or acquire those today. You'd be among the first wave of dissidents swept up in the ML-aided dragnet looking for purchasers of batteries and fertilizer.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#62

Post by rotskoff » Wed, Feb 28, 2018, 9:39 PM UTC

corysama wrote: post #43

Paul_S wrote: post #13

Once the algorithms realise that everyone commits at least a few crimes a day they will become 100% infallible by issuing arrest warrants for anyone with a pulse.

I never read Brave New World , but I've heard that was a theme. Everyone used illegal drugs, but there was no enforcement. Instead, if they wanted to bring you in, they just charged you with illegal drug use --because everyone knows that everyone uses illegal drugs.

Not quite... In Brave New World there is a drug called "soma" that is an opium for the masses; it's rationed by the government. The subplot around soma focuses more on trying to get people to not take it so that their minds can be freed.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#63

Post by threatofrain » Wed, Feb 28, 2018, 9:39 PM UTC

cdepman wrote: post #22

We’re on our way there too in the US: https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/27/17054740/palantir-predict...

Predictive policing is old, and has been done in consultation with universities before. There are papers on predicting crime vs criminals, predicting by time and address, predicting by age, etc., including discussion on whether this leads to uneven enforcement on minorities. It would be surprising to expect law enforcement to go towards less statistical and software usage.

What would be new would be formal preemptive detention by generic factors. Then again there was news covered by the Guardian on a police black site in Chicago that held thousands of largely black detainees without lawyers.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#64

Post by refurb » Wed, Feb 28, 2018, 9:40 PM UTC

davesque wrote: post #54

anthonyleecook wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know there are a lot of clamoring here about ‘oh we are becoming this too and that too’. And it’s a natural reaction: we feel like we cannot change anything about China and how it governs its people, so we try to stigmatize our own government. But the truth of the matter is US government is nowhere near the heavy handed ness of China, and we can deal with China to some degree. We can hold China to its actions. Afte…

I would have agreed with you before November 2016. Now, I'm being completely honest in saying I'm not so sure.

Really? If I recall, HN was blowing up at all the surveillance and privacy concerns under Obama. Is it really worse under Trump?

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#65

Post by drb91 » Wed, Feb 28, 2018, 9:40 PM UTC

davesque wrote: post #54

anthonyleecook wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know there are a lot of clamoring here about ‘oh we are becoming this too and that too’. And it’s a natural reaction: we feel like we cannot change anything about China and how it governs its people, so we try to stigmatize our own government. But the truth of the matter is US government is nowhere near the heavy handed ness of China, and we can deal with China to some degree. We can hold China to its actions. Afte…

I would have agreed with you before November 2016. Now, I'm being completely honest in saying I'm not so sure.

Oh come on, neoliberals aren’t much better. They’re two feet to the left of the right wingers when it comes to surveillance, policing, funding the military & pro-military nationalistic rhetoric, with industry hands in their pocket, and their own hands in the media. The seeds for fascism, authoritarianism, and cults of personality are well rooted in the senior offices of congress on both sides. It has been ripe for abuse and we have seen only a small bit of this in 2016.

Pinning any change here on trump is like blaming the crash on a pilot who took charge after the engines already blew. There is little to no recognition of the abuses of federal government in the government itself, and not for a while.

If any authoritarian power rises, it will be because the democrats are too busy shoveling their shit out of view to put up any real fight. Just look at how blame for a mediocre-at-best platform was shifted to russian propaganda, as if it could have possibly moved the needle more than the hundreds of millions of “legit” propaganda spent by the democrats, as if Bernie Sander's continued popularity doesn't point to a way to strong support in the future that they continue to reject for more unpopular, centrist, neoliberals.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#66

Post by rayalez » Wed, Feb 28, 2018, 9:40 PM UTC

mc32 wrote: post #51

SerLava wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>if this is reducing crimes Every apprehension under this program is a crime by any definition other than the arbitrary declaration of an illegitimate regime. It would be absolutely astonishing if the people apprehended were likely to illegally kidnap and hold at least 1 citizen in their basement for at least the length of time that these people are detained. Thus it can pretty much only increase crime.

Not necessarily. If they are capturing these people because they will have committed a crime and that in and of itself is crime then its not reducing crime. It's possible that once enough people who on balance might commit a crime are arrested or impeded, then crime will indeed decrease.

I think you've missed the point.

Even if this system works, people who have not committed a crime (yet) are innocent.

Taking an innocent person, and improsoning him against his will is a crime, pretty extreme one.

Even if this system works really well, it's hard to imagine that the crimes it prevents can be more extreme than the crimes it commits.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#67

Post by refurb » Wed, Feb 28, 2018, 9:42 PM UTC

srcmap wrote: post #46

cdepman wrote: post #22

We’re on our way there too in the US: https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/27/17054740/palantir-predict...

If someone is taking fly training of commercial jet without wanting to learn how to land the plane, I absolutely want the government to find out why. Same for someone who want to purchase large quality of fertilizer for no real needs.

I'm not going to lie to you, there is no way that could happen.

When you look at successful police operations that have prevented terrorism, a lot of it comes down to luck. Someone had an informant who heard someone say something about a bomb.

There just simply aren't enough police in the US to follow-up on every suspicious activity. Particularly now when even mundane activities can be regarded as suspicious.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#68

Post by EggsOnToast » Wed, Feb 28, 2018, 9:42 PM UTC

ejlangev wrote: post #57

It's a shame we moved a lot of the US industrial base to an authoritarian and potentially hostile country like China. A bit scary to think of the generation or two of people who won't have the knowledge to manufacture things should they ever need to because of conflict in some form. Seems like it reduces any leverage the US has for holding China accountable for much that it does.

I like this point but can you elaborate on it more? My knee jerk reaction is to say "why". I'm not very familiar with manufacturing as I'm sure a lot of people aren't, but it seems like most of the knowledge is in the design of the factory not in the skill of the workers. I know that might be an ignorant statement but that's why I'm asking for elaboration.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#69

Post by dekhn » Wed, Feb 28, 2018, 9:45 PM UTC

leggomylibro wrote: post #58

dekhn wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the palantiri weren't dystopic objects. they were positive items used for communication until some of them were captured. I think the name of the company is highly apt.

Fair enough, I'm not very steeped in the intricacies of Lord of the Rings. I got the feeling that it was the nature of their power and omniscience that corrupted most individuals who used them, sort of like the Ring, but that could be completely wrong.

That's completely wrong. The Palantiri were created by the Noldor (one of the powerful old races of elves) and used without corruption, and then given to the Numenoreans as a gift; they were used for a long time without corruption. They were so powerful that even Sauron could not make arbitrary images appear. But the weak-minded were easily influenced by him through it; not through the nature of the stones.

The ring was created by Sauron and embedded most of his life-force, and nobody alive at the time of the LotR had enough strength to resist his will.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#70

Post by refurb » Wed, Feb 28, 2018, 9:45 PM UTC

Nokinside wrote: post #52

aphextron wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We’re on our way there too in the US: Fortunately we have something called Habeas Corpus

Habeas Corpus has been suspended several times in US history. Abraham Lincoln, Ulysses Grant and FDR suspended habeas corpus. Habeas corpus after 9/11 is not what it used to be. ACLU has been fighting several cases of clear violations.

Yes, but the key difference is we have separation of gov't power and institutions to actually challenge some of these things. When the gov't oversteps it's bounds and they get their hand slapped by the courts, that's the system working. Our gov't is made up of fallible humans, thus we're never going to get to the point where our rights aren't under threat.

Compare that to China, where your best hope is you know someone in power who can try and put in a good word for you. I couldn't imagine living in a system like that where the juggernaut of gov't power is effectively unstoppable.