Likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI

> How would it start, etc.

There has been no credible framing on how it would even start. As such, it's a null point of discussion.

> If you can't define it, you can't analyze it sort of thing.

With no definition, you can 'attempt' to analyze it and you'll likely be horribly off the mark, wasting tons of resources, and likely produce something that has no bearing on the real thing. Instead of admitting this, it's like people put full faith in these efforts being sound when the reality is the exact opposite. Why engage in this, unless your aim is profit/notoriety, when you could be working on the actual problem? Define intelligence [first]. Time to be honest with oneself. Time to stop projecting ones shortcomings on others. Time to stop using fear/uncertainty/doubt to obscure one's true intent. Time to stop pushing the disinformation cloud. Time for TRUE intelligence.

It was and quite well. Were speaking the same language. We just have different conclusions.

> Yes, every narrow AI is a system of systems to an extent. So expand on that concept but outside of a single firm/system. Such that the self driving car system is one single solution path solving "transportation" which would comprise automated flight/rail etc... and is a node in a larger general system - like hub and spoke.

And you still have nothing more than a hub and spoke system of systems authored for specific problems spaces and you're spokes will increase with every new problem space until you overwhelm your hub. A horrible architectural approach that if not caught in the initial stages will result in catastrophe down the road... Weak AI is weak AI no matter how you scale it.

> You seem to be arguing that a single entity will fail if it attempts to take a narrow AI system and make it generalizable. Of which I am in agreement with.

This is a start in the right direction...

> If however there were 10,000 or 100,000 or 1,000,000 narrow AI companies/systems (like a self driving car system or alphago etc...) those could fill the corpus of solutions which an executive function system could utilize depending on the application and together they would be what we call AGI.

No, its strung together weak AI. It will require significantly and unreasonable amounts of resources. Its capability will increasingly reach diminishing returns and you'll end up with a frankenstein monster code base that no one can manage or understand.. Sounds a lot like the path Weak AI is already heading down.. At such a point, it's best to just scrap it and start all over. Something that Hinton and other prominent figures are finally admitting. Something I concluded year ago which lead me down a different path. Now, you're more than welcome to state : Well hey man that's your opinion and you're wrong and I'll wish the 10s,100s, million of narrow AI companies the best just as was conveyed to me a umber of years ago. Weak AI is Weak AI. It is a class of optimization algorithms. You can jerry rig this all you want.. You still have nothing more than a system of systems of optimization algos. If you think this is what intelligence is, I'm not sure what to say.

We as a society have formed networks and systems to solve problems like finding energy, producing food, and organizing economic output. We live in a distributed intelligent system that disseminates knowledge and programs our preferences, responses. We're all utilized as work units, and economics does that. I think it's a mistake to think of AGI as something separate from us, something that doesn't already exist. We're more like a cybernetic superorganism. We've put so much computational power in charge of the choices that we make, and we rely so often on recommendations from computational systems, that if you zoom out far enough, it becomes clear that we are part of a huge, cybernetic Overmind.

The Overmind is just moving more computation away from humans because hey, they're slow. It doesn't really speak to us. Do you speak to your neurons? Nevertheless, it has its goals, its resources, its needs, its preferences. People carry out its wishes, statistically. It turns out that its wishes align very well with economics: More computers! More network! More screens! Connect all the stuff! All the companies doing this are making huge dollars. The mind or minds are just centralizing now, and economics drives that. Computers already fully run the stock market. They run shipping and logistics. They are used to optimize all kinds of economic outputs. And they are used (by humans) to design better computers.

At the broadest scale, we are already that self-improving intelligent system, it just doesn't look like it from meatspace just yet.

It's kind of irrelevant if it could utter the words "I think for I am." Who would it tell that anyway?

The thing is we don't have any clear path laid to follow to achieve AGI . Various paths proposed earlier turned out over optimistic and dead end.

The current "weak AI" you disparage is an achievement expanding generalization of problem spaces using unified methods way better than past systems.

So even if our current progress seems disappointing , please examine what's happened and why research has taken the current path before tarnishing researchers with unjustified quips.