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China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

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Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#61
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For example, we pay out team in Shanghai between 3000 USD and 1000 USD per month. They represent the middle class. Yes, it is less than many in the US, but it is still high enough to enjoy consumer products, travel, and invest in their future and their children's. Plus salaries are increasing 2-3% a year. Government spending on infrastructure is a huge part of GDP, but if you take the high speed trains in China you w…

Oh I lived in Pudong for a while ;). I will have to disagree with you. It was also very busy for US in 2007, during the housing bubble. And it was busy for Japan in 1989, during the asset bubble. There is little reason for China to be able to escape its massive bubble right now.

The same opinion repeated by lots of western economists every year, so you are not the first one. China's economy and culture is different, which lots of western couldn't understand, but still try to use western prospect to interpret it. Like asset bubble, the western don't know the mortgage in China is at least 20% for first property, and the second one would be 50% or even higher. And also in Chinese culture, most people would not get finance for the vehicle, and the saving rate is significant higher than US.

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#62

Documentary on this subject forthcoming - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55892jT06aI

The trailer sounds like typical documentary crap. I'll reserve my opinion for now.

PS: This seems to be implying that the Chinese economy is all hot air, but none of the characters in the trailer looked like Chinese. If the banks sold a nonsense China story to "mom" and "pop" investors who know nothing about China, then what makes these guys so much more knowledgeable? Also, one shit company exposes the entire Chinese economy now? Aren't there any mediocre companies in the US? This extrapolation needs a lot more explanation.

As someone who know nothing about this, whats likely is that some people in the US have way too much money in their hands and seemingly nowhere to put that. So they looked at China and pumped too much money there following a herd. To call that a conspiracy and a financial crime seems like a huge leap.

I mean the same is happening in Indian stocks which are at a stupidly high level. It's more investor stupidity than some grand conspiracy.

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> undisputed center of the world, populated by the best, smartest, and most sophisticated people. Funny thats pretty much what the average Joe thinks about the US. I don't know how you ended up with that twisted opinion, but after working in software development in Beijing for almost two years I can't share these views at all. I perceived my colleagues as pragmatic, forward-looking, interested in politics regarding C…

Citizens of the empire at or near the peak of its influence always think that. And if your culture has been rolling along for 2000 years almost without interruption, you might even be right. It's just patriotism. I expect Chinese people to be as proud of China as Americans are of America. Some will be more die-hard than others, and some will be more humble about it. All of my co-workers working in software are a lot…

> Maybe you didn't talk to a representative sample?

I did to some extend. Your initial post sounded quite stereotypical, like the typical communist gulag FUD you get from fox news etc., so I tried to give a counter example. Your follow-up however read much more insightful and I can pretty much agree.

My impression was that it was mostly older people who believed in China being the undisputed number one for all time (after a quick recovery from the western take over), which I like to account to Mao's influence on their views and values. Younger people had much more realistic views, while I have to admit that it was mostly college students I talked to due to my lack of Chinese skills. But even if the less well-educated youth from some remote village is the prime example of a patriot not questioning anything the government does, is that really that different from here? In general I'm very curious what the next generation of Chinese will be like. There is such a huge clash in the current gen that's about to have kids, because many of the habits and ideas of the past generation just don't work anymore in the current Chinese society. This is just one of the aspects that make me wonder where the country as a whole is headed. It's moving so fast and unexpectedly that I don't really dare to take an opinion on whether China will "take over the world" or not and what this would actually be like for the rest of us. I see great potential for this to happen, but also lots of inner-political and social tensions that could have devastating impact on the country and throw it back again quite a bit.

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How easily can a non-ethnic Chinese person integrate into Chinese society though?

China (practically synonymous with Han ethnicity) has been shockingly racist by modern western standards for thousands of years. And that largely stems from the fact that Han culture has been mostly stable and very successful for most of those thousands of years. They only got a blip of doubt in their total confidence of racial superiority when American-European culture suddenly lurched ahead economically within the…

I'd say you're probably right. But I think China isn't the exception. The West, especially America, is the exception. Most of the world is covered in super racist ethnostates. America is the first experiment in all races living together that worked. And it worked really well. It's not that the Chinese are super racist. They're just average racist, and Americans are super unracist.

This might seem surprising in a country with racial tensions running high, but I think that we're talking so much about racial inequality and tensions is the reason why America is one of the least racist places. It's an ongoing struggle to deal with it. And in most places, people don't deal with it.

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How easily can a non-ethnic Chinese person integrate into Chinese society though?

China (practically synonymous with Han ethnicity) has been shockingly racist by modern western standards for thousands of years. And that largely stems from the fact that Han culture has been mostly stable and very successful for most of those thousands of years. They only got a blip of doubt in their total confidence of racial superiority when American-European culture suddenly lurched ahead economically within the…

> China is 92% Han

Only because the government keeps redefining what is Han.

I lived in Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Ghongzhou for over ten years. There were Hakka, Canton and Chui Chow people but few ethnic Han. That has since changed as factories are filled from all over China.

The government desperately wants everyone to think that China is for all intents and purposes one people, but it's a patch-work quilt of different ethnic groups, cultures and languages who are often at odds with each other.

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#66
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess is that China is inflating its numbers, but even so, the growth they've had is impressive and a lot of it is real. And even with further inflation of their numbers, I don't think they will be a paper tiger with nukes, like the USSR was.

Much of it is real, China's growth has been outstanding! Then you encounter the occasional ghost mall or notice that many of the apartments in your complex are empty and wonder a bit about how much of it is real (probably a lot) and how much of it is just a bubble (probably a significant portion also). A lot of China's GDP growth is tied up in asset growth (e.g. appreciated real estate). So if/when that bubble pops,…

I'm not sure if the ghost stuff is really indicative of a failing economy. I mean, China is about 20% of the world population, you're bound to find emptiness. We're talking about city planning on a massive scale. 220 cities of >1m people are expected by 2025. (SF at 0.8m by comparison). China has multiple cities bigger than countries like the Netherlands, multiple cities 4x bigger than Norway that was recently in the news. It has 280m (rural) internal migrants. Compare it to the US working age population of is just 200m.

The numbers are insane. In the US, we move 11x in our lifetimes of ~80y aka 13% of our population moves each year. Apply that average to China and you're looking at 170m migrants annually. And unlike US (a lot of urban to urban), in China there's a gigantic one-way rural->urban traffic, i.e., two people aren't switching urban houses and calling it 'moving', two people are leaving behind a rural home and needing an entirely newly built urban home.

How do you accommodate that many people in new homes. Do you start building homes only after they're needed? Or do you build some capacity at a surplus, to cover expected growth?

Probably the latter. It isn't much different from any company stocking surplus inventory. That's not an immediate indication of a failure of economics and a bubble.

And do you only build in existing popular cities and just try to add to the periphery, or do you build-up new cities? Probably the latter, too.

Plenty of other countries do it as well. Incheon developed very much due to overdevelopment in Seoul. Or here in the Netherlands, we now have close 0.8m people living in so called Vinexwijken. They're a development centered on a new ordinance concerning housing development between 1995 and 2005. Since 1995 our population grew by 1.6m or so, apparently half our growth went to these new locations created out of nothing. And we always have discussions about structural emptiness, big malls being built and remaining 75% empty for years. But the scale is smaller, the country is 75x smaller than China. We had issues with structural vacancy rates at a new 100k 'village', scale that up to 75x and you have a similar story. Yet the biggest ghosttown in China ia Ordos, planned for 1 million people, scaled back and built for 'only' 300k, and currently houses more than 100k and climbing. That's what is consistently called the biggest ghost town in China. For Chinese, both the size of the project as well as the timeframe (10 years of vacancy) is a rounding error.

Don't get me wrong, there's definitely an asset bubble. But we've also been saying that for who knows how many years and I feel we tend to focus too much on symbolism of the ghost town narrative.

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#67
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that there were shortage of basic necessities in its last years of its existence. The fact that the majority of its exports were oil and gas based, like those of a petro state. This comic describes it very well: https://goo.gl/GAn5fi

> The fact that the majority of its exports were oil and gas based, like those of a petro state. What has changed?[1] I would argue that this neither confirms nor refutes your defense of the "paper tiger" assertion. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia#/media/File:...

Russia is still a paper tiger. Its economy is smaller than Spain's. There are two factors keeping it in "the game":

- that huge stack of nukes

- the ruthlessness of its mostly autocratic leader(s)

Neither of those bode well for their future... ("it's the economy, stupid", and all that).

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

About those empty skyscrapers i think in part they are a gamble on workers migrating from the interior to the coast. But in recent years their government has started a program aimed at transferring some of the coastal activity inland. How effective that will be is hard to tell, but there are already interesting stories of hotels that have entrances on multiple floors because the city was funded in a valley between mu…

That sounds interesting. Are any of these stories available online in English?

Well yes, i think the one i read was a blog or travel story from someone that visited the place.

BTW, i believe the city in question is Chongqing. But sadly i didn't keep a bookmark of the story itself.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chongqing

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#69
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China (practically synonymous with Han ethnicity) has been shockingly racist by modern western standards for thousands of years. And that largely stems from the fact that Han culture has been mostly stable and very successful for most of those thousands of years. They only got a blip of doubt in their total confidence of racial superiority when American-European culture suddenly lurched ahead economically within the…

> China is 92% Han Only because the government keeps redefining what is Han. I lived in Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Ghongzhou for over ten years. There were Hakka, Canton and Chui Chow people but few ethnic Han. That has since changed as factories are filled from all over China. The government desperately wants everyone to think that China is for all intents and purposes one people, but it's a patch-work quilt of differe…

Han is a cultural concept, as is American. The government is not desperate, because Han culture is real: speaking Chinese, reading Chinese characters, looking like Chinese, then you would be accept as Chinese. Appearance is a issue for Westerners, but not a issue for all other indigenous ethical groups.

Remember, being Han is not something people are ashamed of, in ancient East Asia, it is an honor, the hallmark of civilization, as was Rome, as is being American. Realistically, earn an ticket to the enormous economic opportunities China is offering is not a bad deal either, if you already look like one.

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China (practically synonymous with Han ethnicity) has been shockingly racist by modern western standards for thousands of years. And that largely stems from the fact that Han culture has been mostly stable and very successful for most of those thousands of years. They only got a blip of doubt in their total confidence of racial superiority when American-European culture suddenly lurched ahead economically within the…

> undisputed center of the world, populated by the best, smartest, and most sophisticated people. Funny thats pretty much what the average Joe thinks about the US. I don't know how you ended up with that twisted opinion, but after working in software development in Beijing for almost two years I can't share these views at all. I perceived my colleagues as pragmatic, forward-looking, interested in politics regarding C…

Just want to point out that basing perceptions of social attitudes on fellow software engineers isn't exactly a great metric.

You specifically mention what the average Joe in the US thinks, which sharply contrasts with the global, left-leaning attitudes that are prevalent with US software developers.

Did you ever venture to the countryside in China? Or speak with people outside of software?

China has a long history of not only racism, but a potent classism where urban families are considered far superior to rural families. They even regulate which rural people can move to cities. The fact that you don't appear to be aware of this is odd.

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