Live data from Hacker News

China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

nytimes.com

31–40 of 74 posts

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#31
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is, of course, completely different from the performance figures of departments in large corporations, because... um.

The parent never implies that it is. However, at the end of the day large corporations need to keep shareholders pleased to survive. They could lie all they want to themselves, but the shareholders would see through that and remove the bad administrators. China has no such mechanism to ensure accountability.

I'd argue there have been plenty of examples of large corporations delivering rosy figures, until they could no longer sustain the lie.

Some years ago, I got an investment club to put some of our money in Harley-Davidson, based on numbers that hit our criteria perfectly. Too perfectly. A few months later, the CEO resigned, revised numbers came out, it became clear they'd been more or less cooking the books, and the stock tanked. This happens a lot. Worse, it happens with stock market darlings. Remember Enron?

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#32
post #2

There's an economist from Tsinghua University named Patrick Chovanec who used to do an amazing job of documenting China's explosive growth and the many ways in which it might have been artificially inflated (easy credit, shadow banking, fudged numbers, empty skyscrapers, etc.). His blog is still up, but unfortunately he switched from blogging to Tweeting in 2013 and it's been impossible to follow his train of thought…

About those empty skyscrapers i think in part they are a gamble on workers migrating from the interior to the coast. But in recent years their government has started a program aimed at transferring some of the coastal activity inland. How effective that will be is hard to tell, but there are already interesting stories of hotels that have entrances on multiple floors because the city was funded in a valley between mu…

That sounds interesting. Are any of these stories available online in English?

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#33
post #2

There's an economist from Tsinghua University named Patrick Chovanec who used to do an amazing job of documenting China's explosive growth and the many ways in which it might have been artificially inflated (easy credit, shadow banking, fudged numbers, empty skyscrapers, etc.). His blog is still up, but unfortunately he switched from blogging to Tweeting in 2013 and it's been impossible to follow his train of thought…

Interesting piece on the empty skyscrapers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbDeS_mXMnM

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#34
post #15
post #14

I read a while back that local governments would significantly artificially inflate their manufacturing, construction, spending, and raw materials numbers. There were dozens that seemed so far fetched they were easily spotted as fake by a professor that did little research. When you have govt officials who are forced to increase growth and you'll look bad/fired if you don't and no authority is safeguarding this, then…

This is, of course, completely different from the performance figures of departments in large corporations, because... um.

/s

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#35
post #23

Having lived, worked and now running a B2B SaaS company there, the growth is real. Are the numbers exactly right, of course not. China is a massive, complex and not entirely transparent mesh of interests. Long story short though, there is a real middle class in China that is driving real consumer demand. This is starkly different to India, South Africa or Brazil where no real middle class exists. Much longer thoughts…

The middle class in America is disappearing I think. Chinese is probably the best language to have as the secondary.

How easily can a non-ethnic Chinese person integrate into Chinese society though?

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Citizens are extremely wary of the government to do it right." - I don't think citizens have much say in the matter... - it's worth noting that along with data and talent, there is money - China's dedicated 150 billion USD to AI as part of it's 5 year plan. Meanwhile the US is considering cutting scientific research funding by as much as 15% as part of 2018 budget

> "Citizens are extremely wary of the government to do it right." - I don't think citizens have much say in the matter... They actually have more say than you think. And also, the government also has a lot of its own introspection about nuclear, especially after Fukushima. Couple with the huge capital costs, and it isn't a sure thing for China. > it's worth noting that along with data and talent, there is money - Chi…

"They actually have more say than you think" - I disagree. China forcibly relocated over 1 million to complete the 3 gorges project. It doesn't have the best track record of reacting to citizen concerns. I think the other points you mention are more material in it's nuclear considerations.

Fair about the money and pollution. I would assume those commercial advances you mention however are mostly non-military, nor will players like Google or Apple likely soon contribute to US government/military AI research initiatives. I guess in the end the "AI race" is more like "AI olympics" in that no country will win all the events

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#37
post #23

Having lived, worked and now running a B2B SaaS company there, the growth is real. Are the numbers exactly right, of course not. China is a massive, complex and not entirely transparent mesh of interests. Long story short though, there is a real middle class in China that is driving real consumer demand. This is starkly different to India, South Africa or Brazil where no real middle class exists. Much longer thoughts…

China may have a middle class, but that middle class is still making a low $1000/month, even if that middle class is slightly bigger than 100M Also, lots of Chinese local governments have confessed to faking data. https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id... http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news/economy/china-province-... In addition, if you check out Anne Stevenson yang, a China expert living in Ch…

[deleted]

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#38
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is, of course, completely different from the performance figures of departments in large corporations, because... um.

The parent never implies that it is. However, at the end of the day large corporations need to keep shareholders pleased to survive. They could lie all they want to themselves, but the shareholders would see through that and remove the bad administrators. China has no such mechanism to ensure accountability.

The Mandate of Heaven? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_of_Heaven

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#39
post #2

There's an economist from Tsinghua University named Patrick Chovanec who used to do an amazing job of documenting China's explosive growth and the many ways in which it might have been artificially inflated (easy credit, shadow banking, fudged numbers, empty skyscrapers, etc.). His blog is still up, but unfortunately he switched from blogging to Tweeting in 2013 and it's been impossible to follow his train of thought…

Interesting piece on the empty skyscrapers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbDeS_mXMnM

Seems like an outdated report. https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2017/06/30/ordos-ch...

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The middle class in America is disappearing I think. Chinese is probably the best language to have as the secondary.

How easily can a non-ethnic Chinese person integrate into Chinese society though?

You have to marry Chinese.
Post reply on HN