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What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

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Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#61

Post by kristopolous »

thisisit wrote: post #52

As much as I think there might be a crash, so many things are wrong here: > They don’t do technical analysis or are savvy enough to place limit orders. I agree on limit orders but what is the fascination with TA. Not a day goes about where someone in cryptocurrency uses some kind of chart mumbo jumbo to prove a point. > Ever wonder why Coinbase takes about a week to “process” the sell? Simple answer - Settlements. Ba…

Sure, there's honest and upstanding ways of explaining all of this. But there's also billions of dollars being exchanged on opaque markets every day so there's also the usual suspects that brings with it. In valley units, that's a unicorn startup every hour.

Go check, https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ $24.1 billion in the past 24 hours

Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#62

Post by Kiro »

kristopolous wrote: post #19
sAbakumoff wrote: post #13

https://99bitcoins.com/obituary-stats/

Thanks, this is about general markets however. I've been trading BTC since 2011. Doesn't matter if it's tulip bulbs, baseball cards, bitcoins, houses, or dotcom companies, markets operate on similar principles and talking about the market dynamics doesn't say anything about the asset in question. Cryptocurrency is a viable means of exchange and the technology is great and all but that doesn't change the rules or mech…

I disagree. You can't apply regular market theories on Bitcoin. The world hasn't experienced this before and it will open up a whole new field of economics. In 10 years you'll see that I'm right.

Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#63

Post by spelunker »

kristopolous wrote: post #60
spelunker wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, the exchanges aren't selling, sure, but it is a market... so when you sell your bitcoin someone is putting up cash to buy it. I mean unless I don't understand how these exchanges are functioning. I have no idea why it takes a few days to process, however. I don't think the fact that it can take a little while to "process" sells is because it's a ponzi scheme though, that seems like a bit of a jump. I mean pla…

I'm not claiming any of them are. On the contrary, I'm saying there's a risk that some of them could be partially operating like this and if they were, you wouldn't be able to tell. This is high risk. No kidding.

I guess. They could also be inventing the buy side entirely and just taking people's money. They also could be Nigerian princes who just really need my SSN to access their family inheritance.

I still don't think selling "taking a few days" necessarily is evidence that there is a ponzi scheme going on, though.

When I sell equities in my Schwab account, it takes two days to access the cash. I'm pretty certain Schwab isn't running a ponzi scheme.

Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#64

Post by thisisit »

kristopolous wrote: post #61
thisisit wrote: post #52

As much as I think there might be a crash, so many things are wrong here: > They don’t do technical analysis or are savvy enough to place limit orders. I agree on limit orders but what is the fascination with TA. Not a day goes about where someone in cryptocurrency uses some kind of chart mumbo jumbo to prove a point. > Ever wonder why Coinbase takes about a week to “process” the sell? Simple answer - Settlements. Ba…

Sure, there's honest and upstanding ways of explaining all of this. But there's also billions of dollars being exchanged on opaque markets every day so there's also the usual suspects that brings with it. In valley units, that's a unicorn startup every hour. Go check, https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ $24.1 billion in the past 24 hours

And....your solution is to write an article claiming this is fraud?

So, if I use your logic - there is no disclaimer/disclosure on your holdings ie there is opaque-ness. Hence, you have written this article to try and spread FUD to cause market panic.

There is no room for honest and upstanding way to explain your actions.

Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#65

Post by Kiro »

59nadir wrote: post #27
indubitable wrote: post #25

I think the explanation is really simple. A couple of months back numerous non-technical acquaintances began expressing interest in Bitcoin with a number of them going on to purchase it -- completely independent of one another. I doubt my anecdote is particularly unique. There seems to have been a huge influx of "dumb money" on the heels of an exponential increase in media coverage. There is the possibility that I'm…

Pretty much all of the money in Bitcoin was dumb from the get-go. These weren't economists figuring out that something was under-valued or the system could be gamed. It was people gambling back then and that's what's continuing to happen. Like you, I noticed an increasing amount of fairly oblivious people talking about Bitcoin a while ago in our office and that's the most certain marker of an impending crash, but in…

> economists

Economists are the worst predictors in this space and the ones that are constantly wrong about Bitcoin being dead.

Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#66

Post by kough »

dfsegoat wrote: post #28
kough wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

right, but viable means of exchange doesn't mean there's any particular reason to buy and hold.

...If it is a more stable asset class than what you currently own, then why wouldn't you buy and hold? Isn't that the point of diversification? Legitimate, honest questions from someone without any real academic background in econ.

I think that's a situation pretty far divorced from our current reality, but I see your point.

Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#67

Post by kristopolous »

thisisit wrote: post #64
kristopolous wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, there's honest and upstanding ways of explaining all of this. But there's also billions of dollars being exchanged on opaque markets every day so there's also the usual suspects that brings with it. In valley units, that's a unicorn startup every hour. Go check, https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ $24.1 billion in the past 24 hours

And....your solution is to write an article claiming this is fraud? So, if I use your logic - there is no disclaimer/disclosure on your holdings ie there is opaque-ness. Hence, you have written this article to try and spread FUD to cause market panic. There is no room for honest and upstanding way to explain your actions.

Sorry if you read it that way. I was interested in talking about risks and what could be happening, not claiming anything as true. It's both within the range of possible and has historical precedence.

Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#68

Post by Kiro »

jaaames wrote: post #42
indubitable wrote: post #25

I think the explanation is really simple. A couple of months back numerous non-technical acquaintances began expressing interest in Bitcoin with a number of them going on to purchase it -- completely independent of one another. I doubt my anecdote is particularly unique. There seems to have been a huge influx of "dumb money" on the heels of an exponential increase in media coverage. There is the possibility that I'm…

Yes, I've recently exited a large position, while an alarming number of acquaintances who have limited or no investment experience are getting each other into Bitcoin off of Facebook hype, in some cases ridiculing each other for "missing out". This won't and well.

Invest experience doesn't matter here and I think you exited too soon. Your friends however are still early adopters. The FOMO we see now is nothing compared to what will happen once real mass adoption starts. Everyone talks about Bitcoin but very few actually buy. This will change.

Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#69

Post by StavrosK »

samsonradu wrote: post #56
eximius wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Issue Tether (it is issued, not mined), trade Tether for Bitcoin, BTC price in Tethers increases, due to stated and believed peg of Tether to USD, BTC raises in USD price due to arbitrage executioners. More details: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4129543-bitcoin-one-way-go-...

Failing to understand how you could peg Tether to the USD and have people believe you. I was under the impression that pegging to a currency is something only a very big player, with close to unlimited resources can achieve, see People's Bank of China, Swiss Bank etc. Among others, you have to defend the currency against speculators and that requires a lot of capital. Even the Bank of England failed to maintain the p…

You can peg tether to the usd simply by offering to always exchange one tether for one usd and vice versa, no?

Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#70

Post by tedunangst »

samsonradu wrote: post #56
eximius wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Issue Tether (it is issued, not mined), trade Tether for Bitcoin, BTC price in Tethers increases, due to stated and believed peg of Tether to USD, BTC raises in USD price due to arbitrage executioners. More details: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4129543-bitcoin-one-way-go-...

Failing to understand how you could peg Tether to the USD and have people believe you. I was under the impression that pegging to a currency is something only a very big player, with close to unlimited resources can achieve, see People's Bank of China, Swiss Bank etc. Among others, you have to defend the currency against speculators and that requires a lot of capital. Even the Bank of England failed to maintain the p…

The claim is that they are in fact holding an equivalent amount of USD for all Tether. It's an IOU. (No comment on whether this is true.)

Bank of England couldn't maintain the peg because they weren't holding DM for literally all pounds in existence.

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