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What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

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Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#21

Post by michaelchisari »

kruhft wrote: post #15
cantrip wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. There is a section of the article titled "Where is all this cash coming from?" which claims (via a Reddit thread) that it's individuals buying on credit.

Or older people getting into the crypto game because they're hearing their stock advisers tooting their horns. Some of them have boatloads of assets and will trade a small percentage just to get in the crypto game. No credit required. My friend I helped buy in isn't disappointed. He doesn't fully get what cryptos are yet (although I explain them every time I talk to him), but he sure likes the returns...so far. Edit:…

He doesn't filly get what cryptos are yet

That's when you know we're at a dangerous moment in time.

Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#22

Post by meritt »

indubitable wrote: post #18
cantrip wrote: post #2

Anyone speculating about what's going on with Bitcoin without at least mentioning Tether is out of the loop.

The entire market cap of Tether is a small fraction of the daily volume of BTC. If 100% of Tether was traded for BTC, it would just be a blip on a single day's pricing.

I think you're significantly overestimating the total liquidity available at a given point in time.

Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#23

Post by sAbakumoff »

kristopolous wrote: post #19
sAbakumoff wrote: post #13

https://99bitcoins.com/obituary-stats/

Thanks, this is about general markets however. I've been trading BTC since 2011. Doesn't matter if it's tulip bulbs, baseball cards, bitcoins, houses, or dotcom companies, markets operate on similar principles and talking about the market dynamics doesn't say anything about the asset in question. Cryptocurrency is a viable means of exchange and the technology is great and all but that doesn't change the rules or mech…

Personally I inclined to trust Ronnie Moas who likes saying this about BTC:

>>if you try to trade this you WILL get smoked; charts are bullshit and do NOT apply here; stop jumping on and off the train, you look foolish

But at the same time investing only the funds that I can afford to lose.

Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#24

Post by kough »

kristopolous wrote: post #19
sAbakumoff wrote: post #13

https://99bitcoins.com/obituary-stats/

Thanks, this is about general markets however. I've been trading BTC since 2011. Doesn't matter if it's tulip bulbs, baseball cards, bitcoins, houses, or dotcom companies, markets operate on similar principles and talking about the market dynamics doesn't say anything about the asset in question. Cryptocurrency is a viable means of exchange and the technology is great and all but that doesn't change the rules or mech…

right, but viable means of exchange doesn't mean there's any particular reason to buy and hold.

Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#25

Post by indubitable »

I think the explanation is really simple. A couple of months back numerous non-technical acquaintances began expressing interest in Bitcoin with a number of them going on to purchase it -- completely independent of one another. I doubt my anecdote is particularly unique. There seems to have been a huge influx of "dumb money" on the heels of an exponential increase in media coverage.

There is the possibility that I'm reversing causality here. In other words that the media coverage increased following the increases in bitcoin, rather than the opposite as I'm suggesting. But Google Trends along with the price graph seem to support my suggested causality:

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin

https://www.coindesk.com/price/

This just seems to be a huge influx of dumb money. If this is true, it's going to lead to some interesting near future volatility. These sort of investors are going to be more inclined to jump ship at what would normally be the tail end of swings. They will see it as 'the crash', race to get out, and create a self fulfilling prophecy. Perhaps offering a great time for investment for anybody who can accurately determine when the double dip decline is bottoming out before a return to normalcy.

Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#26

Post by [deleted] »

sAbakumoff wrote: post #23
kristopolous wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks, this is about general markets however. I've been trading BTC since 2011. Doesn't matter if it's tulip bulbs, baseball cards, bitcoins, houses, or dotcom companies, markets operate on similar principles and talking about the market dynamics doesn't say anything about the asset in question. Cryptocurrency is a viable means of exchange and the technology is great and all but that doesn't change the rules or mech…

Personally I inclined to trust Ronnie Moas who likes saying this about BTC: >>if you try to trade this you WILL get smoked; charts are bullshit and do NOT apply here; stop jumping on and off the train, you look foolish But at the same time investing only the funds that I can afford to lose.

[deleted]

Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#27

Post by 59nadir »

indubitable wrote: post #25

I think the explanation is really simple. A couple of months back numerous non-technical acquaintances began expressing interest in Bitcoin with a number of them going on to purchase it -- completely independent of one another. I doubt my anecdote is particularly unique. There seems to have been a huge influx of "dumb money" on the heels of an exponential increase in media coverage. There is the possibility that I'm…

Pretty much all of the money in Bitcoin was dumb from the get-go. These weren't economists figuring out that something was under-valued or the system could be gamed. It was people gambling back then and that's what's continuing to happen.

Like you, I noticed an increasing amount of fairly oblivious people talking about Bitcoin a while ago in our office and that's the most certain marker of an impending crash, but in terms of there being smart money outside of huge investors in the earlier days of Bitcoin I disagree. Developers that like to gamble are not smart investors.

Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#28

Post by dfsegoat »

kough wrote: post #24
kristopolous wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks, this is about general markets however. I've been trading BTC since 2011. Doesn't matter if it's tulip bulbs, baseball cards, bitcoins, houses, or dotcom companies, markets operate on similar principles and talking about the market dynamics doesn't say anything about the asset in question. Cryptocurrency is a viable means of exchange and the technology is great and all but that doesn't change the rules or mech…

right, but viable means of exchange doesn't mean there's any particular reason to buy and hold.

...If it is a more stable asset class than what you currently own, then why wouldn't you buy and hold? Isn't that the point of diversification? Legitimate, honest questions from someone without any real academic background in econ.

Re: What's Happening with Bitcoin Prices

#30

Post by Zpalmtree »

RexetBlell wrote: post #12
fmela wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By trading tether issued out of thin air for BTC.

Why would anyone want to exchange their Bitcoins that are worth over $10,000 each on Coinbase (and can be converted to real dollars) for some tokens that are backed by nothing?

Good place to park your gains when the market's volatile.
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