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Tesla’s New Car Smell

mondaynote.com

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Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you test a Mercedes and Audi as well?

I did not. I don't foresee these two with a car in the $25k (after incentives) price range with semi-autonomous driving. And unlike the top level comment, I really want something fully electric (for the planet).

Don't forsee Tesla getting to $25K. The Model 3 really costs $50-$60K, and the incentives are going away.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#62
post #39
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't the BMWs of the world have this tech integrated into their cars too? I get Tesla's cars are really good, but my understanding was that it wasn't "miles ahead".

Yes many other's have autopilot-like tech. BMW's system on the 7-series and newer 5-series is about as good as Tesla's AP1 and better than AP2. AP2 is still far behind the curve.

I compared Tesla Model 3 to Bolt and Leaf.

7-series and 5-series are simply too expensive. If BMW can get it in the 3-series at a Tesla Model 3 price, things will get interesting.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#63
post #13

> I couldn’t help check off the sins against the “Toyota Bible”, prescriptions for car manufacturers that are lucidly detailed in The Machine That Changed The World (a great and, in parts, sad read). In particular, one mustn’t stockpile parts on the floor, they must be fed in small quantities at small time intervals. If a part has a problem, only a small quantity needs to be shipped back to the supplier who can inspe…

> In particular, one mustn’t stockpile parts on the floor, they must be fed in small quantities at small time intervals.

I'd imagine that is hugely affected by the lead time on the parts in question. If you're in a Japanese industrial town and every part's manufactured within 20km of your factory, it'd be a perfect approach. If you're in Palo Alto, California and some of your parts are manufactured in a Japanese industrial town, then "just enough" stockpiled parts may well be a three month supply.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#64
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty self-evident if you read the next two paragraphs: > (Ironically, the Fremont plant is prominently featured in “The Machine…” as the locus of the ultimately failed GM-Toyota cooperation.) > As I watched Tesla’s messy, hiccuping line, with workers dashing in to fix faulty parts in place, my mind travelled back to the Honda plant I had visited years ago in Marysville, Ohio. Clean, calm, everything moved smoo…

I really find it hard to believe they don't understand the TPS. Sure. Maybe. I don't know. It seems more likely to me their "goal" (pun intended for those readers of "The Goal") is the TPS but their particular supply chain may not currently allow for it.

> I really find it hard to believe they don't understand the TPS. Sure. Maybe. I don't know.

American carmakers didn't get it for decades. Even when they thought they did, they performed Lean rituals without real understanding. This was despite Toyota trying vigorously to teach them.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#65
> As I watched Tesla’s messy, hiccuping line, with workers dashing in to fix faulty parts in place, my mind travelled back to the Honda plant I had visited years ago in Marysville, Ohio. Clean, calm, everything moved smoothly. I was so shocked by the contrast that I imprudently voiced my concern. That didn’t go over well with my fellow Tesla owners. I was a killjoy, I was calling their choice into question.

Well, it's exactly the experience you get when you criticize Tesla on HN.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#66
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think Tesla doesn't fundamentally grasp it? This anecdote? The plural of anecdote is not data. Your wikipedia link on the Toyota Production System says it was developed between 1948 and 1975. So it look 27 years to develop. Working for a startup myself, I'm very aware of Kanban and other TPS-inspired work processes. Sometimes in startup-hair-on-fire-mode that all goes out the window and I think that's…

It's pretty self-evident if you read the next two paragraphs: > (Ironically, the Fremont plant is prominently featured in “The Machine…” as the locus of the ultimately failed GM-Toyota cooperation.) > As I watched Tesla’s messy, hiccuping line, with workers dashing in to fix faulty parts in place, my mind travelled back to the Honda plant I had visited years ago in Marysville, Ohio. Clean, calm, everything moved smoo…

I’ve been to a factory tour. The author’s anecdote is off the mark. What I observed were mostly robots doing the assemble and welding and then the typical assembly line for installing the interiors. It was smooth and had a cadence. Mr Gasee was talking about Just-In-Time (JIT) concepts and lean inventory and when he saw parts on a shelf it contradicted his idea of JIT. JIT doesn’t mean you can’t have safety stock. Tesla is also pursuing vertical integration and prefer to make subassemblies in-house. I have my doubts about Gasee’s agenda.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#67
post #4

The author is only comparing production ability and basic mechanical stats with the Bolt and Leaf. I am on the Model 3 waiting list for the Autopilot. Heck, it could be gas powered and I'd be on the waiting list for the Autopilot. I don't need full autonomous. I just want the best system, and currently Tesla has it. So hopefully they figure out their production issues. I also just bought a 2018 Honda Odyssey as our m…

What makes you think Tesla has the best system? The managers in charge of autopilot keep quitting. The media says they are quitting because Elon is making deceptive claims about autopilot. Do you have evidence to the contrary?

Also they've disabled autopilot for the time being.

It's an interesting time for Tesla, they feel like the automotive equivalent of AMD - David keeping Goliath honest. How many automotive companies saw Tesla become an actual disruptive threat and then spent tens of billions on self driving and electrification? Tesla isn't going to compete with Honda or Toyota by copying their model (or even their manufacturing process).

Take a minute and look at the bolt and the leaf - they're god-ugly, emotionless, unsexy modes of transportation. Buying a leaf is the result of sitting down with a spreadsheet. Need some anecdotal proof? Think to yourself how many of your coworkers, friends and family you can see driving one. How about a model 3? I see more model S's during my commute than I do leafs, volts and bolts combined.

Another place to look for confirmation is the lithium ion battery line which was built in collaboration with Panasonic. Panasonic is 2/3rd the size of Toyota and are well versed in manufacturing process.

If Tesla wanted to borrow a page from the incumbents they'd be doing so, they have enough brains from those companies already on staff. It's a safe bet that there are very few idiots in upper management at Tesla. Elon isn't the type to ignore a process problem, he's a modeling/simulation junkie and probably figured out something that the others are missing. That's not to say things are perfect, but I don't think they're as dire as the article makes them out to be.

The shareholders have faith, and although Tesla shares are slightly bubbly, they're still doing unbelievably well on most fronts.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#68
post #23

Disclaimer up front: I work for a Tesla competitor. People believe funny things about Tesla and Elon. But before I talk about that, let me say: I've been extremely impressed with Tesla and Elon for their ability to eventually deliver, and to build unparalleled excitement around electric vehicles. I believe Elon is truly a visionary. Now for the funny things: 1. You can throw money at problems to fix them: If you do t…

"2. [...] right now they make cars and that's all you can grade them on right now. If you want to make a bet about the future, go for it, but realize that it is a bet." This. But the potential is huge compared to other vendors for being more biased to research than production. Other vendors are forced to keep time, people and money allocated to maintain their 19th century gas engines production while Tesla can use al…

> Other vendors are forced to keep time, people and money allocated to maintain their 19th century gas engines.

GM had to sell 600,000 high-margin trucks to raise the same amount of funding that Tesla got from investors (VERY ballpark numbers). With those funds, GM also had to invest in over 30 assembly plants around the world and 12 or so product launches, not including engine and transmission programs.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#69
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think Tesla doesn't fundamentally grasp it? This anecdote? The plural of anecdote is not data. Your wikipedia link on the Toyota Production System says it was developed between 1948 and 1975. So it look 27 years to develop. Working for a startup myself, I'm very aware of Kanban and other TPS-inspired work processes. Sometimes in startup-hair-on-fire-mode that all goes out the window and I think that's…

> Sometimes in startup-hair-on-fire-mode that all goes out the window If that's how you use it, then you also don't grasp it. The point of a process is that it supports you in hard times. (In easy times, any process will do.) In my view, the essence of Lean is patient incremental gain. Giving in to panic is throwing all its benefits away, and creating both immediate and long-term problems for yourself. A good counter…

Hmm, good point. I agree with you about patient incremental gain. I wish my boss and other leaders did. Maybe I also work for an Elon Musk, come to think of it. And yet, I'm still not sure my boss and others don't _understand_ lean manufacturing and its related disciplines. They just seem to pick and choose when they want to apply it. I was recently reading about Jeff Bezos and his "Day 1" mantra as well... perhaps the question is whether that sort of thing can apply to cars.

Re: Tesla’s New Car Smell

#70
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just to 3 Unknown to analysts, investors and the hundreds of thousands of customers who signed up to buy it, as recently as early September major portions of the Model 3 were still being banged out by hand, away from the automated production line, according to people familiar with the matter.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-teslas-production-delays...

> still being banged out by hand, away from the automated production line, according to people familiar with the matter.” The press is up and running: https://www.instagram.com/p/BaInXGBg9G7/ Based on a 3.7 second cycle time, they can bang out 5,837,837 body panels per year (assuming some math an automotive engineer on /r/teslamotors provided that takes into account downtime and typical automotive labor scheduling: 5…

That's what stamping looks like. Here's Subaru banging out car doors.[1] About the same cycle time, using automated loading and unloading.

[1] https://youtu.be/r9byGJtbCws?t=63

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