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Bitcoin Price Tops $1,000 in First Day of 2017 Trading

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Re: Bitcoin Price Tops $1,000 in First Day of 2017 Trading

#61

Post by johndevor »

hendzen wrote: post #27
rebuilder wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's true, but it's also the only thing you can expect if Bitcoin succeeds. Eventually the volatility should subside somewhat, as the market grows. It already has, although obviously it's still a roller coaster ride. How much volatility an uncontrolled currency exhibits should be interesting to see if Bitcoin sticks around for good.

Why exactly will the volatility ever subside? Currencies that are considered stable are not magically so - this is the result of a careful balancing act by central banks. Bitcoin doesn't have an equivalent entity managing the rate of increase in the money supply.

For the same reason that the volatility of gold subsided. Bigger pool of water = smaller splash when you throw the rock in.

Re: Bitcoin Price Tops $1,000 in First Day of 2017 Trading

#63

Post by firebones »

jacobush wrote: post #51
firebones wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bravo. It's time to watch "Network" again! https://sfy.ru/?script=network

This movie is so quotable it's almost scary.

I thought about creating a syllabus of essential biz/capitalism/media movies for new grads tonight. "Network", "There Will Be Blood", "Office Space", etc.

Let's build this thing...

Re: Bitcoin Price Tops $1,000 in First Day of 2017 Trading

#64

Post by firebones »

pmorici wrote: post #45
legulere wrote: post #23

Isn't that a problem because it will mean also higher transaction costs (in dollar)?

No, as Bitcoin appreciates the transaction costs go down in Bitcoin terms and stay the same in fiat currency terms everything else being equal.

When the block rewards decrease, the transaction costs will necessarily have to increase. Right now, the block mining reward dwarfs the transaction cost (effectively subsidizing it). So what increase in transaction volume (relative to capacity) will have to happen in order to keep transaction rates so low? Right now, it looks like there needs to be an order of magnitude volume increase for mining interest to remain.

Re: Bitcoin Price Tops $1,000 in First Day of 2017 Trading

#65

Post by firebones »

droffel wrote: post #53
[deleted] wrote: post #50

[deleted]

Check out Monero, they've solved the scaling incentive problem. https://www.getmonero.org

I suspect that based on current course and speed, there's only room for one winner in the coin space.

So good luck, Monero.

Re: Bitcoin Price Tops $1,000 in First Day of 2017 Trading

#67

Post by mrb »

sanswork wrote: post #42
mrb wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There has been so many critics of cryptocurrencies on HN that hopefully this 3-year high makes people stop and ponder on why Bitcoin has succeeded beyond anyone's wildest expectation over the last 8 years...

It hasn't succeeded anywhere over the past 3 years except in price. Given peoples expectations 3 years ago I'd go so far as to say it has wildly failed everyone in the bitcoin spaces expectations.

"It hasn't succeeded anywhere over the past 3 years except in price."

You must have been living under a rock :)

In 3 years, the daily transaction rate grew 8x(!)—clearly a sign that Bitcoin use is growing: a combination of more users, more businesses, etc. An interesting aspect of looking at transaction rate is that it naturally excludes "simple speculators": those who purchase BTC on exchanges and leave the coins stored at the exchange (because a trade never even leaves a trace on the blockchain.)

The number of Bitcoin ATMS has doubled in 18 months: http://themerkle.com/number-of-bitcoin-atms-has-more-than-do...

In 3 years, the global network speed grew from 10 to 2000 petahash/sec. Millions of dollars were poured by many vendors into developing cutting edge 16nm mining ASICs—clearly a sign that at least multiple tech businesses are betting on a long-term success of Bitcoin.

As of August 2015 160k merchants accepted Bitcoin (up from 100k one year or so earlier): http://research.ark-invest.com/bitcoin-currency

Bitcoin commerce is no longer driven by "sin" activities since Nov 2013 but instead legitimate commerce is growing and now accounting for the bulk of transactions: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2808762

The largest publicly traded company, MSFT, started accepting Bitcoin (though just for Xbox games and Windows apps): http://www.theverge.com/2014/12/11/7375771/microsoft-support...

March 2015: largest funding round ever for a Bitcoin company for $116 million: http://themerkle.com/secretive-silicon-valley-bitcoin-startu...

And more, and more... Bitcoin economic activity/interest has never looked so healthy.

Re: Bitcoin Price Tops $1,000 in First Day of 2017 Trading

#68

Post by sanswork »

mrb wrote: post #67
sanswork wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It hasn't succeeded anywhere over the past 3 years except in price. Given peoples expectations 3 years ago I'd go so far as to say it has wildly failed everyone in the bitcoin spaces expectations.

"It hasn't succeeded anywhere over the past 3 years except in price." You must have been living under a rock :) In 3 years, the daily transaction rate grew 8x(!)—clearly a sign that Bitcoin use is growing: a combination of more users, more businesses, etc. An interesting aspect of looking at transaction rate is that it naturally excludes "simple speculators": those who purchase BTC on exchanges and leave the coins st…

I've been following it fairly closely though not as much over 2016.

>a combination of more users, more businesses

Or the same users using it more, or the increase in tumbling services or anything really.

>Millions of dollars were poured by many vendors into developing cutting edge mining ASICs—clearly a sign that at least multiple tech businesses are betting on a long-term success of Bitcoin.

Miners increased their investments though given the arms race at the moment we have no indication if these are wise investments.

>The number of Bitcoin ATMS is doubling every 18 months

I don't believe they remove inactive/removed BTMs from those stats. It's pretty common on /r/bitcoin to have posts about going into shops where a BTM should be only to find it removed or unplugged and pushed to the corner.

>Bitcoin commerce is no longer driven by "sin" activities

That paper says nothing about legitimate commerce only of exchanges.

>The largest publicly traded company, MSFT, started accepting Bitcoin

Microsoft isn't even in the top 20. And they haven't really done anything since then.

>March 2015: largest funding round ever for a Bitcoin company for $116 million

Who released an overpriced raspberry pi and have not done anything since.

At the start of 2015 through to the end of the first quarter it was claimed that 1b in vc would happen in 2015. The year ended with less than half of that with half of that being funds raised by 2 companies. In 2016 it's dropped back below 2014 levels with 1/3rd of the claimed bitcoin VC going to non-bitcoin companies like Ripple.

>Bitcoin economic activity/interest has never looked so healthy.

~2 years ago we discussed Overstock and our expectations for it. Go back to around that time and look at your expectations for now.

We still have no bitcoin companies reporting MAU though I'm hoping the Coinbase lawsuit makes them show actual user numbers.

Re: Bitcoin Price Tops $1,000 in First Day of 2017 Trading

#69

Post by mrb »

sanswork wrote: post #68
mrb wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It hasn't succeeded anywhere over the past 3 years except in price." You must have been living under a rock :) In 3 years, the daily transaction rate grew 8x(!)—clearly a sign that Bitcoin use is growing: a combination of more users, more businesses, etc. An interesting aspect of looking at transaction rate is that it naturally excludes "simple speculators": those who purchase BTC on exchanges and leave the coins st…

I've been following it fairly closely though not as much over 2016. >a combination of more users, more businesses Or the same users using it more, or the increase in tumbling services or anything really. >Millions of dollars were poured by many vendors into developing cutting edge mining ASICs—clearly a sign that at least multiple tech businesses are betting on a long-term success of Bitcoin. Miners increased their i…

"Or the same users using it more, or the increase in tumbling services or anything really."

Ludicrous. There is no way this 8x tx growth is due in its entirety to the same userbase using Bitcoin 8x more. Or the same userbase somehow deciding their bitcoins need 8x more tumbling. For starters, tumbling leads to long tx chains and even when ignoring these long chains the tx rate has still increased by the same 8x amount: https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chai...

We are not talking about 20% growth, or 50%, or even 2x, where your argument of "the same users using Bitcoin more" might hypothetically be valid. But EIGHT X growth. If Bitcoin is so useful that its userbase uses it 8x more over a span of 3 years, it is impossible that Bitcoin gained ZERO new users in that period.

At the very least, you can't be aware of this 8x growth and write matter-of-factly that Bitcoin "hasn't succeeded anywhere" (or no one will take you seriously.)

Note: I'm not claiming an 8x tx rate growth means an 8x userbase growth. Maybe the userbase grew 4x and existing users use it 2x more, but even that would be a sign of success for Bitcoin.

Brief replies to your other most important points (going to bed): ATMs: they do account for decommissioned ATMs (the stats may be delayed eg. updated only after a user reporting the ATM as no-longer-existent). But even assuming the stats failed to report say 100 ATM decommissioned per year, the # of ATMs would still be increasing quite nicely... MSFT: I meant the "largest publicly traded company to accept Bitcoin" with my point being that attracting very large companies to accept it is, again, a sign of success for Bitcoin. 21 LLC: here my point was that attracting VC investment (even if 2016 investments are down compared to 2015) is a sign of success. Overstock: yes they report very low Bitcoin payments. But does it mean Bitcoin "hasn't succeeded anywhere"? No! See above.

Bottom line, with the tx rate increasing, # of ATMs increasing, # of merchants increasing, investments in companies, etc (even accounting for error margins for your concerns) you can't stick your head in the sand and claim truthfully that Bitcoin "hasn't succeeded anywhere". This was an untrue statement for you to make.

PS: I doubt seeing an upward trend in the Coinbase MAU numbers would convince you. You are the "climate change denier" of Bitcoin, so you would probably claim their users are speculators and not legit users :)

Re: Bitcoin Price Tops $1,000 in First Day of 2017 Trading

#70

Post by sanswork »

mrb wrote: post #69
sanswork wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been following it fairly closely though not as much over 2016. >a combination of more users, more businesses Or the same users using it more, or the increase in tumbling services or anything really. >Millions of dollars were poured by many vendors into developing cutting edge mining ASICs—clearly a sign that at least multiple tech businesses are betting on a long-term success of Bitcoin. Miners increased their i…

"Or the same users using it more, or the increase in tumbling services or anything really." Ludicrous. There is no way this 8x tx growth is due in its entirety to the same userbase using Bitcoin 8x more. Or the same userbase somehow deciding their bitcoins need 8x more tumbling. For starters, tumbling leads to long tx chains and even when ignoring these long chains the tx rate has still increased by the same 8x amoun…

We're talking about 200,000 transactions per day. If the estimates of a userbase of 1 million 3 years ago were correct then it only takes one transaction every 5 days per user for their to be no need for new users.

I don't mean to imply there have been zero new users I just don't believe there is much actual growth in users when accounting for churn.

>But even assuming the stats failed to report say 100 ATM decommissioned per year, the # of ATMs would still be increasing quite nicely

% increase because actual numbers are so low but I'll reserve judgement on this for another year since we're talking about less than 1000 machines tops world wide in 3 years of creating them.

>MSFT

There was a stage there where everyone was promoting that they were accepting bitcoin for a bit then it all died off again when companies realised that bitcoin = no sales.

>here my point was that attracting VC investment

Attracted VC investment in the past tense. None of the VC has paid off or even looks particularly promising at this point and as such has fallen off a cliff.

>Overstock: yes they report very low Bitcoin payments.

Along with every other retailer that has made any comment about volume since starting to accept bitcoin. You claim that non-black market volume has taken over but I've yet to see a single success case in bitcoin retailing.

Bitcoin has a long history of things that were killer apps or going to take it mainstream and all of them have failed. From changetip, to lighthouse, to OB, to 21inc.

>I doubt seeing an upward trend in the Coinbase MAU numbers would convince you. You are the "climate change denier" of Bitcoin, so you would probably claim their users are speculators and not legit users :)

Seeing real numbers would definitely convince me. I've never hesitated to admit where I've been wrong when it comes to stuff in the space and I've been wrong about a number of things(especially wasting time arguing about this stuff which I did improve on dramatically last year and I think I'll go back to improving on so last reply). But I've also been right about a lot. Anyhow hope your travels are going well if you're still on them which I assume you are as it appears you're near my timezone.

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