The Facebook bubble just popped • Hacker News Board

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#61

Post by woodchuck64 » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:35 PM UTC

Declanomous wrote: post #47

woodchuck64 wrote: post #15

Not just the left and right's echo-chambers, but those who attempt to actually listen to reality got it wrong, too: FiveThirtyEight for example has been using proven, reality-based statistics for a while and should have predicted this result. (As it was, Silver was lambasted for being too generous on Trump's chances.) At issue in this election is apparently a new idea: people who hold positions that are being publica…

I spent 5 years living in Wisconsin, and I've been telling everyone that Trump would definitely win there. The week before the election, I actually went so far as to say that I expected Hillary to win the popular vote, and Trump to win the electoral college. I wasn't predicting a Trump win out of bias. I'm very liberal, and my friends are too. However, none of my friends believed me. I'm not going to say I was confid…

Makes sense. Now, how can Silver correct his methodology to capture the above in future elections, I wonder.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#62

Post by ones_and_zeros » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:36 PM UTC

thewhitetulip wrote: post #46

sickbeard wrote: post #12

Not to mention realclearpolitics and projectthirtyfive all had poll after poll with all the number crunching data saying Clinton would win. In the end.. clinton: 59,938,290 votes trump: 59,704,886 votes 59million liked all new age sjw stuff 59million other people didn't

I find the electoral system in US to be funny. When 47.7% people voted for Hillary and 47.5 voted from Donald, yet Donald won. This is for the second time that Dems have lost this way, the last time was during Al Gore vs Bush

And they had 8 years to fix it but I don't think I heard a peep from them about electoral reform.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#63

Post by eitally » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:37 PM UTC

herbst wrote: post #16

sickbeard wrote: post #9

What an absurd article. Facebook is worldwide but somehow the US only elections popped it's bubble? Not to mention this was a 50/50 opinion split.. not exactly earth shattering.

Well for one thing i never heard anyone using Facebook as news source, if U.S. people really do that there is at least that. Otherwise really absurd article, agreed.

Tons of people consider FB their primary news source, mostly because it serves as a "reasonable" aggregator. The problem is, of course, that it isn't actually reasonable.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#64

Post by zzalpha » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:37 PM UTC

jbondeson wrote: post #44

sickbeard wrote: post #12

Not to mention realclearpolitics and projectthirtyfive all had poll after poll with all the number crunching data saying Clinton would win. In the end.. clinton: 59,938,290 votes trump: 59,704,886 votes 59million liked all new age sjw stuff 59million other people didn't

> 59million liked all new age sjw stuff That is such an absurd and reductionist dismissal of this election that is no different than the equally wrong people saying "59 million people liked all the old sexist, homophobic, racist and xenophobic attitudes, and 59 million other people didn't" What you are doing here is just perpetuating the problems that have plagued this election cycle and made it so people are complet…

I almost think this was a textbook troll.

Start with a reasonable statement. Back that up with some interesting facts. Then drop a bomb in the room and wait for the aftermath. Pretty nicely crafted, all things considered...

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#65

Post by renaudg » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:37 PM UTC

woodchuck64 wrote: post #15

Not just the left and right's echo-chambers, but those who attempt to actually listen to reality got it wrong, too: FiveThirtyEight for example has been using proven, reality-based statistics for a while and should have predicted this result. (As it was, Silver was lambasted for being too generous on Trump's chances.) At issue in this election is apparently a new idea: people who hold positions that are being publica…

At issue in this election is apparently a new idea: people who hold positions that are being publically shamed tend to lie to pollsters

Definitely not that new. For example, pollsters in France have for decades been applying a "coefficient of shame" to account for Le Pen voters' underreporting.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#66

Post by DubiousPusher » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:38 PM UTC

AznHisoka wrote: post #56

DubiousPusher wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Donald Trump barely won. They regularly gave him a %25+ chance of winning and regularly pointed out that that was a good chance.

he won 2 extra states he had no business winning. thats not barely winning.

In Michigan, a state where 41/2 million votes were cast, he won by ~10,000 votes. That's nearly the definition of barely winning.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#67

Post by maxxxxx » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:38 PM UTC

woodchuck64 wrote: post #61

Declanomous wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I spent 5 years living in Wisconsin, and I've been telling everyone that Trump would definitely win there. The week before the election, I actually went so far as to say that I expected Hillary to win the popular vote, and Trump to win the electoral college. I wasn't predicting a Trump win out of bias. I'm very liberal, and my friends are too. However, none of my friends believed me. I'm not going to say I was confid…

Makes sense. Now, how can Silver correct his methodology to capture the above in future elections, I wonder.

He should call it quits together with all other pollsters. All that predicting is at best a totally useless activity or even worse, it influences voter behavior. Bet on football games instead. At least that doesn't do damage to the country.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#68

Post by MaxfordAndSons » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:39 PM UTC

Declanomous wrote: post #47

woodchuck64 wrote: post #15

Not just the left and right's echo-chambers, but those who attempt to actually listen to reality got it wrong, too: FiveThirtyEight for example has been using proven, reality-based statistics for a while and should have predicted this result. (As it was, Silver was lambasted for being too generous on Trump's chances.) At issue in this election is apparently a new idea: people who hold positions that are being publica…

I spent 5 years living in Wisconsin, and I've been telling everyone that Trump would definitely win there. The week before the election, I actually went so far as to say that I expected Hillary to win the popular vote, and Trump to win the electoral college. I wasn't predicting a Trump win out of bias. I'm very liberal, and my friends are too. However, none of my friends believed me. I'm not going to say I was confid…

I agree with your analysis, but it's sort of an orthogonal point to the issue at hand. The issue is that the personalized media bubble effect prevented more people from attaining your insight, because we were simply not exposed to the same media as those who were galvanized by Trump, and on the other side of the coin, it allowed Trump supporters to avoid exposure to valid critiques of their candidate and instead be hyper focused on (sometimes fabricated, often exaggerated) content that was critical of Clinton.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#69

Post by ones_and_zeros » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:39 PM UTC

pfortuny wrote: post #60

thewhitetulip wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find the electoral system in US to be funny. When 47.7% people voted for Hillary and 47.5 voted from Donald, yet Donald won. This is for the second time that Dems have lost this way, the last time was during Al Gore vs Bush

It is a federation of States, not a single State. Each one has its weight as State relative to the federation. So it is not "the people" who vote for the president. It is the people who vote whom their State will vote as president.

It is possible to win an election with only 22% of the popular vote. Have you seen this: http://www.cgpgrey.com/blog/the-trouble-with-the-electoral-c...

Due to the way the electoral college gives small population states more electoral votes comparatively, votes in small population states have more weight.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#70

Post by ianai » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 5:39 PM UTC

misterbowfinger wrote: post #36

We're all definitely in an echo chamber. Hacker News is an echo chamber. So is Reddit, FB, Twitter, etc. This is what happens when, as an industry, we move towards "personalization". All of our "personalized" feeds allow businesses to increase their ad revenue, but it siphons us away from the rest of the world. 30 years ago, we were beholden to the large media outlets, which is also bad, but I believe we've overcorre…

It has everything to do with human behavior. It takes energy and induces cognitive load to interact with 'the other' - other people, other view points, etc. So people group up by like interests. Technology just makes it possible to highly concentrate.