1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video] • Hacker News Board

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#61

Post by tl » Sun, Oct 23, 2016, 12:27 AM UTC

icebraining wrote: post #58

jacquesm wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A direct representation of this can be found in law. Countries start out with simple laws, then as society gets more complex the laws become substantially more complex as well, to the point where tax codes, private and criminal law are no longer wholly comprehensible by any single individual. It shouldn't be a surprise that societies collapse though, everything has a life-cycle, even stars and the universe as a whole…

it would be extremely surprising if something as simple as an organization made up of fragile humans would manage to last longer than say a millennium or so. Would it? In 868, the County of Portucale was created; in 1143 it became independent, with Vimaranes as its capital. Nowadays, Portugal is still around and Guimarães is still an important city, and while it certainly has its problems, I don't think it's in any d…

Take Ethernet for example: we've had multiple distinct technologies that used the name, but we always call it ethernet (I suspect that we only avoided calling wi-fi "ethernet" is because wi-fi is shorter).

It is much the same for countries, who die and reform in approximately the same geographic location and keep the name to preserve the illusion of continuity. Portugal's history is far from free of such reformations, civil wars, etc...

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#62

Post by oldmanjay » Sun, Oct 23, 2016, 12:39 AM UTC

catalinbraescu wrote: post #57

solipsism wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not recommending the book is not the same as blaming the author.

Because books write themselves.

No, because blaming the author for unnamed transgressions is not a fundamental aspect of not liking a book.

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#63

Post by aorth » Sun, Oct 23, 2016, 12:58 AM UTC

Love it! Reminds me of Dan Carlin's "Kings of Kings" series in his Hardcore History podcast. The world was fascinating back then. Even the names of people/places were epic: Ninevah, the Elamites, the Assyrians, Ahura Mazda, Marduk, etc! So epic!

http://www.dancarlin.com/hardcore-history-56-kings-of-kings/

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#64

Post by tiatia » Sun, Oct 23, 2016, 5:30 AM UTC

woodandsteel wrote: post #53

tiatia wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Including total collapses of civilisations." It seems to be an inherent thing of civilizations to collapse. The Collapse of Complex Societies https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Complex-Societies-Studies-Ar... The collapse of our society seem to be inevitable. You don't have to believe is but I don't think we can beat mathematics in the long term: "There is No Steady State Economy (except at a very basic level)" http://…

You might be right that our civilization is going to collapse eventually. However, in many of the advanced economies, we have had gdp growth has been separated from energy consumption for several decades. I am more worried about the effects of advance technologies, including it getting in the hands of people like ISIS who want to take down Western Civilization.

"However, in many of the advanced economies, we have had gdp growth has been separated from energy consumption for several decades."

Do we?

"In recent years, a large share of the world’s manufacturing has been moved to developing countries. This shift gives the illusion that the developed countries can get along with less energy to produce their GDP. This is not really the case. The developed countries find themselves with a need for a large amount of imported goods. Their heavily services-oriented economies tend to grow slowly. This is because, with little energy use, it is difficult for these economies to make productivity gains." https://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/10/11/why-energy-prices-are-...

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#65

Post by mathattack » Sun, Oct 23, 2016, 5:32 AM UTC

hvs wrote: post #48

mathattack wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recall someone commenting that most non-fiction books have only 15 minutes of true comment. The rest is commentary and persuasion. I used to feel awful if I did t finish a book because the author created it with a certain vision. As I get older I've realized how limited my time is, and I am more content with a quick skim for many.

I would say this is true of a lot of non-technical, popular non-fiction. I would consider "The Art of Electronics" [1] one of the greatest pieces of non-fiction in the English language, but that sucker's dense. [1] https://www.amazon.com/Art-Electronics-Paul-Horowitz/dp/0521...

Yes. I think Gladwell was the target of the comment. :-)

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#66

Post by tiatia » Sun, Oct 23, 2016, 5:32 AM UTC

woodandsteel wrote: post #53

tiatia wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Including total collapses of civilisations." It seems to be an inherent thing of civilizations to collapse. The Collapse of Complex Societies https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Complex-Societies-Studies-Ar... The collapse of our society seem to be inevitable. You don't have to believe is but I don't think we can beat mathematics in the long term: "There is No Steady State Economy (except at a very basic level)" http://…

You might be right that our civilization is going to collapse eventually. However, in many of the advanced economies, we have had gdp growth has been separated from energy consumption for several decades. I am more worried about the effects of advance technologies, including it getting in the hands of people like ISIS who want to take down Western Civilization.

"I am more worried about the effects of advance technologies, including it getting in the hands of people like ISIS who want to take down Western Civilization."

This is true and this may be another nail in the coffin.

"The threshold necessary for small groups to conduct global warfare has finally been breached, and we are only starting to feel its effects. Over time, in as little as perhaps twenty years and as the leverage of technology increases, this threshold will finally reach its culmination -- with the ability of one man to declare war on the world and win." John Robb

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#67

Post by ajmurmann » Sun, Oct 23, 2016, 5:33 AM UTC

joecasson wrote: post #54

novaleaf wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that was my main problem with "The Lean Startup" too. it was really really hard to finish it when only 10% of the content was actionable (the rest anecdotal)

I often find myself reading about 30% of books like "The Lean Startup," and moving on. Not necessarily the first 30%, but overall. Understand the thesis, and move on. I have yet to find a business book where this doesn't apply. I only finish the ones where I particularly like the writing style or the anecdotes.

Have you read "The hard thing about hard things"? I found it had very little padding and was loaded to the rim with valuable information.

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#68

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Oct 23, 2016, 5:45 AM UTC

wkafou wrote: post #25

The analogy of ISIS and sea people is spot on.However, we can safely say the ISIS was an outcome from a chaotic situation in the first place ; not caused by famine or climate change perhaps but much more sinister reasons.

[deleted]

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#69

Post by Spooky23 » Sun, Oct 23, 2016, 1:57 PM UTC

novaleaf wrote: post #42

OvidNaso wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take my opinion with a grain of salt because I put this books down after only 100 pages or so, but it seemed to exemplify my main gripe with many/most popular science/non-fiction publications these days...padding. Many authors seem to have a great ~150 page thesis, but publishers push hard that best sellers are 400-600 pages.

that was my main problem with "The Lean Startup" too. it was really really hard to finish it when only 10% of the content was actionable (the rest anecdotal)

It was worse in audiobook form.

I was stuck in a jury duty situation without any other materials (I had a library play away, my phone was dead, and reading materials were taken), and I still couldn't listen to that thing!

Re: 1177 BC – The Year Civilization Collapsed [video]

#70

Post by Spooky23 » Sun, Oct 23, 2016, 1:59 PM UTC

DonaldFisk wrote: post #22

adrianratnapala wrote: post #14

I like the "it's complicated" theory, but it also a bit of a cop-out. Can we not have a meta-theory? Here are three candidates: 1) Climate change. Doesn't directly cause famines because people adapt; but the adaptation might be e.g to become wondering marauders. Thus war, destruction famine etc. 2) Technological change. Iron-working upset existing power balances. The political results were different in different plac…

Joseph Tainter's theory (The Collapse of Complex Societies) is even more general. Societies collapse when "continued investment in complexity as a problem-solving strategy yields a declining marginal return". The idea is that initially, solutions to problems are found and society becomes more complex as a result, but the benefit of the solutions exceeds the cost of the complexity. But as the society develops, the ben…

I don't like that theory. Sounds a lot like the current era.