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Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#591

Post by walterbell »

oblio wrote: post #500
walterbell wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Miran paper envisions long-term investment in US industry, e.g. see recent TSMC-Intel partnership and $100B investment in US manufacturing, brokered by the current administration.

Didn't Biden make a huge agreement with TSMC, already?

This more than doubles the previous investment, https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/03/tsmc-pledges-to-spend-100b...

  TSMC previously pledged to pour $65 billion into U.S.-based fabrication plants and has received up to $6.6 billion in grants from the CHIPS Act, a major Biden administration-era law that sought to boost domestic semiconductor production. The new investment brings TSMC’s total investments in the U.S. chip industry to around $165 billion, Trump said in prepared remarks.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#592

Post by mcv »

cachehit wrote: post #548
billy99k wrote: post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"People don't want to admit wealth distribution is the problem because that would make them "communists"." If you are referring to taking wealth by force from people that earned it and giving to people that didn't earn it, yes it's 'communist'. There's nothing emotional about a methodology that has failed over and over again.

>If you are referring to taking wealth by force from people that earned it and giving to people that didn't earn it, yes it's 'communist' No, it's taxation. A pretty common phenomenon.

Indeed. Taxation is as old as civilization. Civilization is built on taxation. The first writing systems, the first numbers, the first money, it was all invented to enable taxation. People should finally quit being so childish about this. Unless you want to go back to the stone age, taxation is unavoidable.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#593

Post by tasuki »

senorrib wrote: post #42
csense wrote: post #12

So honest question: A bunch of people who currently own stock are deciding they'd rather have cash instead -- that much is obvious. But what exactly are they doing with the cash? Don't want to hold onto it, everyone says devaluation and inflation is coming. Bitcoin and gold are kinda flat. I expected them to shoot up as uncertainty hedges. What gives?

Real estate, bonds, foreign stocks, oil. There's a billion options out there. Or they can just sit and wait. Losing for a bit of inflation is better than losing 20-30% in a recession.

> Losing for a bit of inflation is better than losing 20-30% in a recession.

Except you can't time it like that. Inflation eats your savings all the time, while recessions are short.

I have a friend who's been saying "stocks are too risky" since about 2010. He prefers the predictable ~3% inflation...

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#594

Post by tasuki »

whatever1 wrote: post #88
bawolff wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If stocks hit $0, you probably have more immediate concerns - like where you are going to get your next meal and if someone is going to shoot you for the contents of your fridge. Stocks could still continue to fall, but they aren't going to slide to zero.

They can fall 90% slowly. Look at south Europe after 2018

I did, and did not see a 90% fall.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#595

Post by parodysbird »

sebmellen wrote: post #541
parodysbird wrote: post #508

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Dutch and Swiss are very powerful, relative to their size. You can say fantasy things like "if they were invaded tomorrow", but that's not reality. The US has atomic weapons, but has lost almost every war it has started since having nukes. Having weapons doesn't mean you will be faced with contexts to actually use them. "Genome-targeted bioweapons" is just made up nonsense. Just making up "if" statements of fanta…

The idea of an "atomic bomb" would have seemed fantastical before it was developed. Bioweaponry is underfunded, far more dangerous than you think, and is a hot topic for the PRC [0]. And let's be clear — the US did not "lose a war" in Afghanistan or Iraq. Yes, we had failed pseudo-occupations. That is not the same as losing a war. No country, save perhaps Iraq during the Gulf War, has experienced the force of a moder…

America didn't lose the Iraq War to Saddam, it lost to disparate groups of Islamic jihadis who read some Mao.

Losing a war is not body counts, it's a military withdrawal after a failure to achieve objectives. It doesn't mean there are winners.

America went into Afghanistan to destroy Al-qaeda and remove the Taliban from power. At the end of the war, the Taliban were back in power and global jihadism is even stronger and more pervasive than before. That is losing a war.

Pax Americana shows that big militarized states like the US and Russia (before that USSR) do not wield the operational war power they imagine. They lose every war they start (which, again, is not to say there is a triumphant winner).

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#596

Post by ein0p »

bigyabai wrote: post #301
ein0p wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's 1D chess, really, and it isn't really Trump who came up with the idea. We're between a rock and a hard place. If we refinanced at 4.8%, the interest payment would go to $1.2T per year. If we refinance at a lower rate, it's lower. Note that we're not just refinancing either, we'll have to borrow about $1.8T, too, unless DOGE miraculously achieves its $1T/yr savings (doesn't look like it will, if the current trend…

> Tariff revenues would help to plug that hole somewhat. "Somewhat" being a key operand here. America is a net importer globally, a protracted trade war is inherently leveraged against us. Neither the rock nor the hard place is forcing anyone to harass our trade partners and abandon our defensive alliances.

What do you mean? We can't afford to finance their security anymore. Nor can we afford their protective tariffs against our goods. Why can't we afford it? Because we're running $1.8T budget deficit, and paying $1T+ in interest on our debt next year. Because each man, woman and child in the US already owes $100K+ straight from birth. Do you just want to keep adding to that number hoping that we'll never turn into Zimbabwe?

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#597

Post by mcv »

anon373839 wrote: post #73
lreeves wrote: post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

4D chess is an absurd notion when you consider the actors involved. Only malice and incompetence are credible theories.

They'retrying to play 4D chess, but they don't understand how the pieces move.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#598

Post by bawolff »

walterbell wrote: post #522
bawolff wrote: post #519

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't seem to support canada wanting to renogtiate usmca. The best way of handling that issue is probably not renegotiation (its way too specific of a situation to write a clause into the agreement for). Furthermore, Chrystia freeland hasn't been deputy PM for four months now, and the situation has changed a lot since then (not to mention we also have a new prime minister since then). At the time of that state…

From the FT article linked upthread, https://archive.is/J09AN > A broader change to the USMCA also looks likely, with Carney saying there had been “so many violations” that the free trade agreement needs “a renegotiation”.

Yes, that is what i meant by "the issue identified that needs to be addressed is the US president being a dick."

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#599

Post by fragmede »

api wrote: post #585
lunarlull wrote: post #459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Imagine what the vibes would be on the West Coast if there was a huge set of policy changes that decimated and liquidated the high tech industries. All those software and engineering jobs just vaporize in a span of 20 years. > Then the media makes you the butt of jokes. Calls you “flyover country.” The people in your analogy are not the same types suffering from rust belt rage. One group is willing and very wanting…

What can I say except: I don’t buy that at all. I lived in Los Angeles for 8 years and Boston for 5. There are some cultural differences but the people there are still just human. When a region and a culture declines, it gets more nostalgic and reactionary. The arrow of cause and effect goes that way. Places like Detroit were innovation centers and much more culturally open before their entire economy was rug pulled.…

Damn. Because California has been rug pulled. The underground weed economy was responsible for hundreds of millions of dollars in black market revenue. That money's now gone to Oklahoma because the legal cannabis laws are more favorable there, leaving a absolutely gaping hole in California's economy that can't be replaced by growing alternative crops like saffron, or, in keeping with the illegal theme, poppies/heroin or coca/cocaine. Because it was illegal before legalization, there are scant few stats on just how large it was, but where'd growers used to get $4,000/lb, they're now getting $400/lb. (I have this conspiracy theory level theory, in that San Francisco used to be home to illegal grow ops which forced pg&e to upgrade transformers and substations to support pre-led grow lights, which were massively power hungry. since that power is now no longer needed because those grow ops are no longer viable thanks to legalization, but the upgraded substations remain, the rise of electric cars isn't quite the emergency it should be.)

So much of the arts and Burning Man and entire communities in the Emerald Triangle were propped up by that money, and it's gone.

Time will tell how things go for California. I remain hopeful, but there's just no real data about the black market thanks to its very nature, so it's hard to know just how large that gaping hole is.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#600

Post by ein0p »

stubish wrote: post #400
ein0p wrote: post #15

WAI. Trump is crashing the T-note yield to refinance $9T (which is how much US debt is going to mature in 2025) at a lower rate. That, for those of us who know arithmetic, is approximately one quarter of all US debt. It seems to be working.

Why would anyone purchase the T-notes with a poor return? Especially if other assets are in a dip?

Because you don't know when the dip will end, and how much lower it could go. People could (and do) choose to exit the market if they expect further volatility, and when they do exit, they need something to park their cash.
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