591–600 of 1001 posts
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Yep, over half of GDP growth is tied to population growth. If 2% of humanity is about to die...
Are those 2% that are about to die the consumers which drive consumption? Maybe in healthcare, but suspect 70 and 80 year olds aren’t buying a lot of new cars.
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The Nikkei is still ~50% below its 1989 high. Hasn't even approached that level since. Downturns can go on for decades.
Doesn't that have to do with Japan's specific long term problems though?
(Edit to make this less flippant: like bubbles in education, housing and stocks.)
To be honest , the market was in dire need for correction, BUT wonder where we will be when companies starts reporting their quarterly results and impact of that. So far this looked more like a correction than a precursor to the recession. To make things worse, OPEC dropped bombs which spread the wildfire further..
Market was all screwed up because the interest rate was so low. If bonds pay nothing, where else do you put your money?
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In large part these are designed to break the feedback loops that can happen in automated high frequency trading and give humans a chance to look at things. These policies were implemented by all the stock exchanges after flash crashes triggered by ML algorithms encountering something "weird" and going into hard sell mode. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_crash
The breakers were originally implemented as a response to Black Monday in 87, which was before algorithms were so dominant, but it happens that humans are really good at panicking and acting irrationally too.
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Do they have circuit breakers in the other direction?
You can easily sell a market to zero, however it is much harder to buy a market to infinity.
Emptying out all the asks is a thing that happens.
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A few weeks ago, I spent $730 to buy 73 SPY put option contracts expiring this Friday with a strike of $270, so about 10 cents per share. Unbelievable. I've been selling them over the last week and just finished getting out today with a realized gain of about $30k. Wish I had put $50k in instead of $1k, but I suppose that's always the lament when an ultra-risky trade goes your way :)
Teach me your ways. Literature ?
Genuine question: They can just do that ? Issue a trading halt because they don't like the direction it's going ? > “There’s a reason why they have those circuit breakers -- it’s to give people time to come back from panicked feelings,” Seems strange that the market is kinda able to be manipulated like that. I'm not saying this is a bad move, just surprised that someone can do it.
In the flash crash (2010), it was later determined that the largest part of the drop was driven by competing systems racing to the bottom solely because competing systems were selling off too.
Genuine question: They can just do that ? Issue a trading halt because they don't like the direction it's going ? > “There’s a reason why they have those circuit breakers -- it’s to give people time to come back from panicked feelings,” Seems strange that the market is kinda able to be manipulated like that. I'm not saying this is a bad move, just surprised that someone can do it.
This will be blamed on COVID-19, but the problems go much deeper. Last year the Fed lost control of the repo market. the event was widely discounted at the time as an end-of-tax-year fluke. It wasn't. Six month ago, the yield curve inverted. People who should have known better said "this time is different." Speculators have been trained over the course of 10+ years to buy the dip. The Fed has your back. What we're se…
Is turning Global Financial Crisis into an acronym necessary? It certainly isn’t standard. Turning things into acronyms that are used a single time in a written statement without reference or explanation is one of the most obnoxious things in this industry. Paraphrasing grandmas everywhere, if you can’t write things properly, don’t write anything at all.
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Honestly, spring just happens to be the season when I contribute to my Roth IRA, so hey, I guess this year I get my index funds at a low per-share price. Thanks log-normal random walk!
Before you get too excited about Spring essentially solving this problem, I present to you the history of the Spanish Flu [1]. > Reported cases of Spanish flu dropped off over the summer of 1918, and there was hope at the beginning of August that the virus had run its course. In retrospect, it was only the calm before the storm. Somewhere in Europe, a mutated strain of the Spanish flu virus had emerged that had the p…