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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#581

Post by alsetmusic »

ekr wrote: post #563
holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

I think you're mostly right, except maybe a bit misinformed on #1. The younger Khamenei is, according to recent reports, in a very unstable condition, has likely never actually had an input on the leadership of Iran so far, and his future state is uncertain. So I think there will be another leader elected soon.

> I think you're mostly right, except maybe a bit misinformed on #1. The younger Khamenei is, according to recent reports, in a very unstable condition, has likely never actually had an input on the leadership of Iran so far, and his future state is uncertain. > So I think there will be another leader elected soon.

What does that have to do with anything? The USA (my country, sadly) provoked a far smaller nation and was proved incapable of dominance.

Trump will claim victory, but it's not what they thought they'd get.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#582

Post by zmmmmm »

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

They've frustrated the biggest military on the planet to the point of issuing expletives. It's a huge moral win. Symbolism matters more than anything else in these situations.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#583

Post by goranmoomin »

TBH as an outsider, I am just so frustrated on Trump deciding that US invading Iran large scale is a great idea. (And why even is it involving Israel for gods sake?!)

If you guys wanted to be supportive to the Iranian protests, US could instead just selectively target some of the leadership and give the protests a push (and give the whole world a hint that US is supportive of them).

After 40 years of Iran constructing a thearchy government, the Iranians finally started having a huge protest on throwing up the thearchy government and possibly talking about a new west-friendly government.

And then Trump just decides to wholesale invade Iran with Israel?

That's just giving so much more reasons for the current government to be in power and the Iranians to hate the US and more generally the western world. It took 40 years for the Iranians to realize that there's enough problems in the thearchy system and want their more secularized country back; and then Trump just destroyed the whole premise!

Does the US just really think that they will be loved by everyone when they rage in and invade any random country? Do they really think like that? I'm just frustrated so much. How can the US be so egocentric?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#584

Post by bkishan »

tristanj wrote: post #526
hdivider wrote: post #477

Let me articulate the thing which I believe is on many people's minds: What is the chance the president will order a nuclear strike on Iran as this war proceeds? We would hope the odds are vanishingly small, because doing so would be profoundly disadvantageous. But the same was true for initiating this war in the first place. The logic -- such as it is -- of some people in power may lead them to conclude once more th…

No chance. A nuclear strike on Iran won't achieve anything that a large number of conventional strikes would.

Wouldn't*

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#585

Post by bawolff »

rcbdev wrote: post #575
gpm wrote: post #530

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz > 6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran > 7. Termination of all International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors resolutions against Iran These seem remarkably outside the USes power to unilaterally agree to. The first violates international treaties and while I'd be thrilled with the precedent as a Canadian eyeing my…

> The first violates international treaties Yeah, but USrAel never ratified UNCLOS. Iran is in the same boat.

Although i think they mostly recognize it as customary international law.

Nonetheless international law isn't really worth the paper its written on. The bigger thing is there are a bunch of other countries dependent on the strait that might have something to say about it.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#586

Post by decimalenough »

karim79 wrote: post #576
holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

[flagged]

It's a war, everybody loses, but given that the US started this with the explicit goal of regime change and has manifestly failed to accomplish this, it's a victory by default for Iran.

Although it wouldn't surprise me if the final deal includes Khameini Jr stepping down and being replaced by somebody with a more palatable last name.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#587

Post by deathanatos »

zoklet-enjoyer wrote: post #419

I've been calling my reps and demanding they impeach Trump and Hegseth and get in contact with Doug Burgum and get going on the 25th amendment.

There is exactly a 0% chance of the 25A happening. It will be a cold day in hell — these people worship Trump. They're not ousting him.

Impeachment would be more likely, but an impeachment conviction still seems utterly improbable. You'd need to flip a lot of seats in November, and this country is going to have forgotten all about this set of genocidal threats well before then. There's no way the current House/Senate GOP impeach, let alone convict.

> get in contact with Doug Burgum

I have absolutely no idea why you think Burgum would ever support a 25A invocation against Trump.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#588

Post by RobRivera »

alsetmusic wrote: post #581
ekr wrote: post #563

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're mostly right, except maybe a bit misinformed on #1. The younger Khamenei is, according to recent reports, in a very unstable condition, has likely never actually had an input on the leadership of Iran so far, and his future state is uncertain. So I think there will be another leader elected soon.

> I think you're mostly right, except maybe a bit misinformed on #1. The younger Khamenei is, according to recent reports, in a very unstable condition, has likely never actually had an input on the leadership of Iran so far, and his future state is uncertain. > So I think there will be another leader elected soon. What does that have to do with anything? The USA (my country, sadly) provoked a far smaller nation and…

The 'what does that have to do with anything' attack, yes quite effective at making yourself appear inquisitive and collaborative, and open-minded. /s

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#589

Post by 8note »

stickfigure wrote: post #462
karim79 wrote: post #420

I'm putting this[0] here just as a reminder of how horrible things can be and for basically nothing. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_attack

> for basically nothing * The people responsible for murdering ten thousand protesters are now dead. * The IRGC's military capability is significantly degraded. * Their nuclear program is likely set back even further. It's hard to get real information here but we should assume that supporting facilities were high on the target list. That's not nothing. From a strict utilitarian perspective, it's probably "worth it".…

i dont think those are nearly as clearcut as suggested.

some of the iranian side for events that resulted in a bunch of death have been killed... while also killing a bunch mkre iranians, but have the americans/israelis that armed the protestors into terrorists and incided them to violence been killed?

i think theres enough police, mossad, and cia folks left to do that again and again until the protestors are all gone.

similarly, its blatantly obvious for everyone that the US destoryed the iranian capabilities that dont matter. iran is still capable enough to seter both putting american ships in the strait, and boots on the ground, so that degradation is not significant. optimization without profiling.

from a strict utilitarian perspective, definitely not worth it. the costs were extraordinarily expensive and havent been fully paid yet, and the profits for the US is a worse position than they started it

theres some light benefits to the gulf and ukraine in that the gulf realizes that they can spend much less on defense by buying from ukraine, but that pales in comparison to the costs paid in destroyed oil infrastructure and interceptors that could have gone to ukraine

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#590

Post by vasco »

Unicironic wrote: post #283

It's disheartening to hear people talk about this in terms of won and lost. Is that how you think of these events? I think of them in terms of sadness and horror. The US threatened to obliterate a country and people, because gas was getting a little expensive. If winning and losing is the way you are framing this, instead of thinking about the humans that these actions affect, then we all have lost.

> It's disheartening to hear people talk about this in terms of won and lost. Is that how you think of these events? I think of them in terms of sadness and horror

Its because you're such a better person than them, wow, incredible. Nobody else knows what war is.

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