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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#571

Post by kaveh_h »

gpm wrote: post #530
Aloisius wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency (via China's state news agency Xinhua[0]) claims the 10 points are: 1. U.S. commitment to ensure no further acts of aggression 2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz 3. Acceptance of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions 5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions 6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran…

> 2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz > 6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran > 7. Termination of all International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors resolutions against Iran These seem remarkably outside the USes power to unilaterally agree to. The first violates international treaties and while I'd be thrilled with the precedent as a Canadian eyeing my…

It’s unlikely that Iran will get it’s demands at least all of them, and further it’s likely that this ceasefire will break no matter what.

The strait is actually not international waters. It’s shared between Oman and Iran remember (deep water shipping lanes does not exists everywhere in it as well). There was reporting of an agreement on both sides to some sort of shared booth.

Only the US would be the permanent party to vote against it which would be against which would be weird if the agree to the conditions in the first place.

IAEA are stooges, they will do what the US tells them and they’ll come up with some legitimate way of doing it.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#572

Post by dismalaf »

holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

There will be a 2 week ceasefire, western countries will move ships out of the straight, the Saudis will reroute oil, the 10 point plan is idiotic and the US will have an easy excuse to resume bombing them.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#573

Post by [deleted] »

woah wrote: post #570
holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

> much younger and more formidable Khameini Formidable?

[deleted]

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#574

Post by int_19h »

blix wrote: post #447
swat535 wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Nuclear sites are not "in rubble", uranium is very much intact. They attempted to extract some of it with the failed F15 mission and had to scrap it (oversight by CIA) near Isfahan. 2. Leadership KIA doesn't matter, IRAN has a decentralized leadership, not a top down one. 3. Military apparatus is intact, majority of missile cities are still operating, over 1M IRGC forces mobilized with many more men willing to sig…

All policy aimed at preventing nuclear Iran has one goal: buy time. I think it is hard to argue that time has not been bought (though how much and whether the price was right is another question). The only semi-stable long term option is a friendly Iranian government. The IRGC's main purpose is to occupy Iran, so anything that makes them weaker, less stable and more decentralized improves the odds of successful inter…

> All policy aimed at preventing nuclear Iran has one goal: buy time.

Buy time to do what?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#575

Post by rcbdev »

gpm wrote: post #530
Aloisius wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency (via China's state news agency Xinhua[0]) claims the 10 points are: 1. U.S. commitment to ensure no further acts of aggression 2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz 3. Acceptance of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions 5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions 6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran…

> 2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz > 6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran > 7. Termination of all International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors resolutions against Iran These seem remarkably outside the USes power to unilaterally agree to. The first violates international treaties and while I'd be thrilled with the precedent as a Canadian eyeing my…

> The first violates international treaties

Yeah, but USrAel never ratified UNCLOS. Iran is in the same boat.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#576

Post by karim79 »

holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

[flagged]

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#577

Post by js8 »

tristanj wrote: post #467
JeremyNT wrote: post #428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In most wars, everybody loses. The best Iran could hope for given its inevitable defeat by a far superior aggressor was to deny the invader any kind of spoils. And by those standards they seem to be succeeding. So now we have a pointless war that has resulted in thousands of dead with no tangible benefit to anybody, except of course those cronies of the administration doing insider trading.

This is not pointless. It exists to exchange a future nuclear war with Iran with a conventional war today. The US and Israel can fight a conventional war with Iran. In a nuclear war, Israel would be destroyed by nuclear missiles in the two days. The possibility of a nuclear Iran is an existential crisis for Israel, and Israel will do anything possible to prevent Iran from gaining nukes. Most people do not comprehend…

> It exists to exchange a future nuclear war with Iran with a conventional war today.

That's just ridiculous. Nobody can predict the future, so trading uncertain war in the future for a certain war today is completely irrational. (And for the same reason, the war today is unlikely gonna be easier than the war tomorrow.)

Besides, Iran has avoided having nuclear weapon, because it causes too many civilian casualties, and that's against their beliefs. In this, they're more civilized than Americans (and Europeans), despite that this might be considered to be an irrational view by barbarians like you.

I think you're just coping with the fact that this war was utterly pointless, destructive for almost everyone in the world, and a poor attempt to increase power by a small group of people.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#578

Post by antoniojtorres »

dismalaf wrote: post #572
holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

There will be a 2 week ceasefire, western countries will move ships out of the straight, the Saudis will reroute oil, the 10 point plan is idiotic and the US will have an easy excuse to resume bombing them.

Reroute where? Nonsense. If that was the case then the tensions wouldn’t be this high.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#579

Post by emkoemko »

woah wrote: post #570
holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

> much younger and more formidable Khameini Formidable?

more crazy then his father is what i hear

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#580

Post by dismalaf »

antoniojtorres wrote: post #578
dismalaf wrote: post #572

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will be a 2 week ceasefire, western countries will move ships out of the straight, the Saudis will reroute oil, the 10 point plan is idiotic and the US will have an easy excuse to resume bombing them.

Reroute where? Nonsense. If that was the case then the tensions wouldn’t be this high.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East%E2%80%93West_Crude_Oil_Pi...

Tensions are high because of all the trapped ships. Not because there's no alternative.

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