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Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#581

Post by Paradigma11 »

jredwards wrote: post #523
anon373839 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

4D chess is an absurd notion when you consider the actors involved. Only malice and incompetence are credible theories.

I think the combination of malice and incompetence remains the most credible theory: Trump believes that the he/the US has the more powerful position in all of these relationships and wants to impose his will on the rest of the world and make them submit to his/US superiority. Which might actually work if he picked one target at a time. But you can't beat up the whole school at once. The fact that he can't do this to…

@2) I don't see Putin behind this. The current situation is most likely a death stroke for Russia. Russia's war economy was already on the brink and running on borrowed time. With oil prices cratering that's it.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#582

Post by Paradigma11 »

ants_everywhere wrote: post #242
lreeves wrote: post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

> I'm sure some people would claim this is 4D chess There is some regular 2D chess going on here, but it's not being played by anyone in the US admin. Putin wants to weaken NATO so he can continue expanding. America is a linchpin holding together much of the European alliances and not coincidentally the candidate he helped get elected twice is destroying the US's global standing and weakening the US dollar. The rebui…

If that really was Putins intention and doing he makes Trump look like a stable genius. Crude is already down to 62USD/barrel. If this goes on for any amount of time Russia is dead.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#583

Post by mcv »

lreeves wrote: post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

There is most likely a deeper plan behind it. It's not 4D chess, or if it is, it's played by people who don't really understand it themselves, but there is a goal behind it: ending Reagan's neoliberal economic world order.

That in itself is not a bad goal, and it's one I agree with; neoliberalism has increased inequality, put excessive wealth in the hands of a tiny elite, and looted nations of their infrastructure and social structures. Neoliberalism should die.

The problem is that Trump's economic advisors seem to want a new world order where the rest of the world is even more subservient to the US, and they think they can enforce that by cutting everybody off from the US economy, and they'll only be let back if they accept America's new terms.

The problem is of course that the US actually cut itself off from the rest of the world, and as big and powerful as the US is, it's not more powerful than the rest of the world put together. It's not the rest of the world that will come crawling back; it's the US. After having squandered its 80 year dominant position in the global economy.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#584

Post by walterbell »

kristiandupont wrote: post #549
walterbell wrote: post #492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The entire new tariff scheme is napkin math. See the 2024 paper (40 pages) by Stephen Miran, current chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, which has influenced tariff policy, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43589350 https://financialpost.com/news/stephen-miran-economist-trump... > Miran.. points to Trump’s application of tariffs on China in 2018-2019, which he argues “passed with little discernible macroe…

Whatever paper may have "influenced" the policy, here is the official statement and it is very much napkin math and nothing else. https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations

That "napkin math" guide is like "enterprise pricing"—a starting point—for negotiation defined by the official White House Executive Order, https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/regu...

  (c)  Should any trading partner take significant steps to remedy non-reciprocal trade arrangements and align sufficiently with the United States on economic and national security matters, I may further modify the HTSUS to decrease or limit in scope the duties imposed under this order.
Lobbyists and trade negotiators can read 700 words of strawman "napkin math", or 40 pages by CEA chair, or interviews with administration officials, to inform their negotiating position.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#585

Post by api »

lunarlull wrote: post #459
api wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m from Southern Ohio which was not hit as hard, but I know the attitude well. I call it “rust belt rage.” I remember during the first Trump election hearing quotes like “I hope he does as much damage as possible” and “I can’t throw a bomb into the White House but I can throw a Trump.” Lots more like that. The attitude in that region of the country is absolute seething rage. A lot of people from Northern Ohio, Weste…

> Imagine what the vibes would be on the West Coast if there was a huge set of policy changes that decimated and liquidated the high tech industries. All those software and engineering jobs just vaporize in a span of 20 years. > Then the media makes you the butt of jokes. Calls you “flyover country.” The people in your analogy are not the same types suffering from rust belt rage. One group is willing and very wanting…

What can I say except: I don’t buy that at all. I lived in Los Angeles for 8 years and Boston for 5. There are some cultural differences but the people there are still just human.

When a region and a culture declines, it gets more nostalgic and reactionary. The arrow of cause and effect goes that way. Places like Detroit were innovation centers and much more culturally open before their entire economy was rug pulled.

If California were rug pulled you’d end up with a culture that lives permanently in the shadow of its boom times and rages at the world.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#586

Post by tasuki »

thethimble wrote: post #525
nitwit005 wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm fairly convinced it's easier feel like there is some plan, even if a bad or sinister one, than things being in a state of genuine chaos. You occasionally see the people jumping between different ideas as to what the underlying plan is, once events no longer support their initial idea.

The plan is crystal clear: 1. When equities crash, market liquidity floods the bond market causing yields to drop 2. Refinance debt at these lower rates massively reducing interest burden 3. Cut government spending to cause rates to drop further 4. Reduced rates with a balanced budget results in non-inflationary borrowing and an economic upswing Along the way, eliminate taxes for those earning below $150k. If all of…

> This plan has been made clear by multiple people from within the administration

Do you have sources?

(I also subscribe to the "genuine chaos" theory, but your comment makes sense)

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#587

Post by mcv »

someNameIG wrote: post #571
csense wrote: post #531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "if you don't want it to be done to you don't do it to others" Doesn't work. We opened trade to China in the '70s. They took advantage of us, stealing IP, manipulating currency, paying their people terrible wages, crapping all over the environment. We let their companies freely in the US, they very severely restricted US business ventures in China. Detroit, a former shining city in the industrial heartland, is now…

The US economy is the largest in the world, disposable income, both average and median, are highest and second highest respectively. Median income is 30-40% higher than comparable developed economies, and significant higher than China. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disposable_household_and_per... Even industrial output the US is second highest, and it's closer to first place than second. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/…

> And supporting a whole family on a single income well was a very narrow window of time, and it required the US to have no real economic competitors.

But then how were other countries able to have this while having economic competitors?

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#588

Post by tasuki »

lenerdenator wrote: post #467
otterley wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most wealthy people’s wealth is in investments. If the value of the investments goes down, there are fewer resources to “buy the dip.” It doesn’t hold water as a theory. Basically robbing Peter to pay Paul.

They have people whose jobs it is to even out those troughs, and I don't think you realize just how wealthy the wealthiest wealthy really are. Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, and Larry Ellison each have a net worth that is on par with the total gross economic output of a small American metropolitan area.

> Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, and Larry Ellison each have a net worth that is on par with the total gross economic output of a small American metropolitan area.

You're comparing apples to oranges.

Net worth is in dollars, while economic output is dollars per unit of time. The comparison does not make sense.

You didn't even say which unit of time! Hell, I have a higher net worth than the total economic output of the US, given a short enough time frame.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#589

Post by mcv »

sebmellen wrote: post #366
cycomanic wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was bringing this up with a guy yesterday who was genuinely supporting the policies and somebody chimed in that they were not worried at all, because everyone wants to trade with the big boy in town. Trust is not important if they are afraid of you (I'm paraphrasing). Quite a different perspective, but it is consistent with an observation I made about a lot of US comments, people are quite happy for their country/g…

Devil’s advocate: If you (the US) massively subsidize the world order through your financial markets, military defense, and foreign aid, it’s only fair that you get to take advantage of your position. Historically, the US has done this at the expense of its working class. Now there is a populist feeling that we are owed a long due “payback” for our generosity. The Bernie/AOC left believe the payback is owed by our el…

It's clearly the Bernie/AOC left who are correct here. The US forced this world order on the rest of the world, and massively benefitted from it, so the payback is not owed by the rest of the world who had this forced on them (though they benefitted too) but by the wealthy elite, who benefitted by far the most from it.

Look at the number of multibillionaires the US has acquired over the past 40 years. The trillion dollar megacorps. The many millionaires in Congress. Those are the people who owe payback to the American public. But those are also the people who control the American public, control their news, and feed them misinformation.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#590

Post by mcv »

billy99k wrote: post #478
tock wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America is the richest country in the world. That is the payback. Yet somehow the working class is screwed. People don't want to admit wealth distribution is the problem because that would make them "communists". It's an emotional response. I'm scared how far they take it.

"People don't want to admit wealth distribution is the problem because that would make them "communists"." If you are referring to taking wealth by force from people that earned it and giving to people that didn't earn it, yes it's 'communist'. There's nothing emotional about a methodology that has failed over and over again.

> If you are referring to taking wealth by force from people that earned it and giving to people that didn't earn it, yes it's 'communist'.

No, that's capitalist. That's literally the core of capitalism.

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