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Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

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581–590 of 1001 posts

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#581
post #362

The results of the last election tell a much different story. If the economy was soaring for the average person then I don’t think control of the government would have changed or at least not as dramatically.

The economy was but one of many issues that help decide the election.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#582

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That really depends where you go. Many places you will see zero homeless. Other places you can't throw a dirty syringe without hitting a homeless person.

Unnecessary demonization of the unhoused as only drug addicts. Have some empathy. Many places simply ship their unhoused elsewhere (I'm Canadian and I remember reading about Calgary paying for one-way bus tickets to Vancouver). In other places, the winters are literally unsurvivable outside.

Unnecessary demonization of substance-affectionate and social-safety-rebellious. Have some empathy

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#583
There are only a few factors driving this and they are very hard for Europe to solve: - the Bay Area an industrial cluster not comparable to anything we had before due to the scalability and the capital requirements of the products - the US market, the most powerful consumer market in history allowing massive economies of scale at companies, companies can work with a much higher productivity level - capital markets that can finance the most outlandish ideas - better demographics - less crisis and russian intervention (Brexit, Syrian war, Ukraine war are all part of Russias attacks) - bureacracy and regulations are totally overvalued as a factor, definitely something we should solve, but the EU would not be a tech leader without GDPR

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#584
post #518

Tech is the problem. The internet is global (or perhaps two or three regions), and winner takes all - so global value creation is being experienced everywhere, but being monetised in the US stock market. Take tech out of the equation and the US is pretty much on par with EU, and China and India are just burning the coal for everyone else.

The article discusses this and disagrees. Even in the same sectors and with the top 7 companies removed, sectors in the US have higher P/E ratios due to higher projected growth rates.

The article quotes Draghi as saying “If we exclude the tech sector, EU productivity growth over the past 20 years would be broadly at par with the US,” so I think it agrees.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#585
post #197

Not a single word about shale oil and gas revolution, that started around 15 years ago? The US now has the one of the cheapest energy on earth, and probably the cheapest among the countries that matter. Pour all that cheap gas and oil onto an economy that was already a leader and you get lots of impressive growth.

They did bring up energy -- "The US may have been less affected by the war in Ukraine than Europe, owing to its abundant domestic energy supplies"

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#586

But is the majority of the population thriving? It is very misleading (at best) to say the economy is strong when a good chunk of the population live paycheck to paycheck. A handful of companies are thriving, but barely any of its employees.

US Federal Reserve studies indicate that the percentage of US households with no excess income after necessary expenses (as distinct from "ordinary expenses" as a term of art) is on the order of 10-15%. This definition roughly matches most people's intuition of what "living paycheck-to-paycheck" means. That isn't nothing but it implies 85-90% of Americans are not actually living paycheck-to-paycheck. There is another…

Also by the Fed: 4 in 10 Americans lack enough money to cover a $400 emergency expense:

https://fortune.com/2023/05/23/inflation-economy-consumer-fi...

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#587

But is the majority of the population thriving? It is very misleading (at best) to say the economy is strong when a good chunk of the population live paycheck to paycheck. A handful of companies are thriving, but barely any of its employees.

I also dislike this narrative that if your economy isn't as good as the US then you're failing. And, well, that's exactly where the US wants your economy

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#588
If you go to the doctor with a problem and get a blood test and they say that everything looks fine, but you don’t feel fine, then you don’t say: “well the numbers are right, I should feel fine”. Rather you try to find what the numbers aren’t capturing, because you know something is wrong. Same with the economy. The perception of the economy being bad is really pervasive as demonstrated by the last election, and perception matters, because selective numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US Federal Reserve studies indicate that the percentage of US households with no excess income after necessary expenses (as distinct from "ordinary expenses" as a term of art) is on the order of 10-15%. This definition roughly matches most people's intuition of what "living paycheck-to-paycheck" means. That isn't nothing but it implies 85-90% of Americans are not actually living paycheck-to-paycheck. There is another…

The problem that I see is that a million in net worth isn't enough to have a good retirement anymore now that rent is $2-3k a month in most major cities.

There's a large amount of area to retire to outside of most major cities.

Re: Why America's economy is soaring ahead of its rivals

#590
GDP is a measure of the marketisation of society.

If I go visit my grandma over the weekend, my activities do not register on GDP. If I hire a care assistant for $800 per day to do so, that's $800 to national GDP. The encroachment of the market into society correlates with record levels of mental and physical health crisis. US life expectancy has declined over the past three years, even as 'the economy' has surged ahead. The measures are wrong - and we all know it - apart from the financial press it seems

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