Tesla Q1 2021 Results • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#581

Post by natch » Wed, Apr 28, 2021, 5:30 PM UTC

deanak wrote: post #557

natch wrote: post #549

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There are at least 3 known cases where autopilot failed and someone died. Depending how you falsely define "failure," Autopilot can be falsely said to fail all the time. If you set an unrealistic bar, it can fail each and every second of every drive, according to some fallacious definitions. Fully replacing the driver is not a claimed feature of the current system. Future systems, sure. But current systems? Nope. Th…

Why are you getting into the definition of fallacious? Read the NTSB report. > The Tesla Autopilot system did not provide an effective means of monitoring the driver’s level of engagement with the driving task, and the timing of alerts and warnings was insufficient to elicit the driver’s response to prevent the crash or mitigate its severity. Requirements are needed for driver monitoring systems for advanced driver a…

We have to be careful about moving the goalposts to measure Autopilot according to supposed qualities it never claims to have.

It’s likely that implementing the suggested solutions would add more problems than it solves. For one thing some of them would exacerbate one problem you seem to be concerned about, driver overconfidence and over reliance on the system.

So while these bureaucratic opinions are fascinating, like many such committee driven conclusions they should be taken with a grain of salt. Tesla has thought things through pretty well.

Ultimately the best solution for now imho is to keep full responsibility with the driver.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#582

Post by natch » Wed, Apr 28, 2021, 6:17 PM UTC

vincnetas wrote: post #521

natch wrote: post #498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not for racing. It’s a safety feature that can get you out of a tight spot to avoid a collision. It’s also enjoyable. Once we get rid of human drivers in all cars then the first part won’t be needed anymore. When that day comes, we will be safer but we will miss the fun acceleration of these days.

People usually forget that they can also use breakes to get out of tight spot, which is usually safer, and by the way it has even greater acceleration (negative though). By the way high power and high acceleration usually takes you to that tight spot. Isn't?

Sometimes it’s the high power (way higher than acceleration as you correctly point out) of other people’s braking that gets you into a tight spot.

In any case in some situations it’s good to have the flexibility of both options, not just the braking option.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#583

Post by deanak » Wed, Apr 28, 2021, 7:22 PM UTC

natch wrote: post #581

deanak wrote: post #557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are you getting into the definition of fallacious? Read the NTSB report. > The Tesla Autopilot system did not provide an effective means of monitoring the driver’s level of engagement with the driving task, and the timing of alerts and warnings was insufficient to elicit the driver’s response to prevent the crash or mitigate its severity. Requirements are needed for driver monitoring systems for advanced driver a…

We have to be careful about moving the goalposts to measure Autopilot according to supposed qualities it never claims to have. It’s likely that implementing the suggested solutions would add more problems than it solves. For one thing some of them would exacerbate one problem you seem to be concerned about, driver overconfidence and over reliance on the system. So while these bureaucratic opinions are fascinating, li…

If autopilot allows itself to be activated in an area where it doesn't work, who is accountable for that? If it depends on collision avoidance that performs far worse than other solutions, who is accountable for that? When Tesla sells a $10k package that calls itself autopilot and then people die when they have it turned on, who is accountable for that?

> So while these bureaucratic opinions are fascinating, like many such committee driven conclusions they should be taken with a grain of salt. Tesla has thought things through pretty well.

Every other driver assist technology limits its own scope to prevent over-reliance. That's because those companies (Subaru/Toyota/GM/Ford/Volvo/BMW/VW) are working with regulators across the world to develop and adhere to standards. If Tesla's solution was better, you'd have some numbers to back it up instead of a bizarre assertion that industry experts are suddenly clueless when they are part of a regulatory body.

Tesla has created an unreliable semi-autonomous system and made it available before it's ready against the advice of the NTSB and other regulators. That is irresponsible and people who would have otherwise been paying attention have died because they, like you, assumed that "Tesla has thought things through pretty well."

Much like an IT department that fights tooth and nail against a third party security audit, it should be obvious why Tesla is so dedicated to pretending that there isn't a problem. They don't want to admit autopilot isn't ready, and will likely never be dependable until they have proximity sensors in addition to cameras like every other solution does. They'd rather blame the drivers for relying on the technology they just paid for. It's a ridiculous defense that will ultimately fall apart.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#584

Post by lofi_lory » Wed, Apr 28, 2021, 9:12 PM UTC

soramimo wrote: post #564

lofi_lory wrote: post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a German, I don't see VW getting it together rapidly. Germany doesn't get life in #Neuland. VW and most of the German industry are respective leaders in some niche by being good at through mechanical engineering IP. Electrical cars are simple. Innovation is in software, DRM business models and battery tech which is all completely foreign to the German industry. People here get Teslas for the charging infrastructur…

German here as well. In general, I share your pessimism. One thing to point out about VW is that their CEO, Herbert Diess, seems to get it. To name two anecdotal pieces of evidence, Elon had asked him to become CEO of Tesla back in 2015 [1] and he had conversations with Chinese battery supplier CATL about car batteries as far back as ten years ago [2]. [1] https://electrek.co/2021/04/13/ceo-elon-musk-reportedly-hire.…

I don't know... This year I lost all hope for Germany's future. This goes beyond VW. Until now, I kinda thought everything is going to be alright, Germany is a rich country and all. I wasn't aware of the extend of moral corruption in the CDU. They really eroded the whole country for personal gains. I've never been this disappointed and disillusioned by politics and society as I am for the last few month.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#585

Post by nikau » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 8:18 AM UTC

concordDance wrote: post #577

nikau wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://driving.ca/tesla/model-s/features/feature-story/rang... our 2019 100D promised 491 kilometres of electrically-powered zero emission motoring while the Porsche’s said the Taycan would only be able to manage 345 km. the Porsche had almost exactly delivered its expected range — 342 km according to our calculations, versus its original 345-km claim — the Model S was all but as dead as a door-nail at 355 klicks. F…

According to the linked article they were going noticeably above the Model S's optimum driving speed. In fact, they're driving at a speed above the USA highway speed limit. Not sure this is sufficient to claim "most real world tests show Tesla doesn't go any further than competing cars"

It was 77.6 mph - under the speed limit in areas of texas and the real world driving speed of inner west states.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#586

Post by Angostura » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 9:56 AM UTC

iso1631 wrote: post #450

Angostura wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are large city areas with no off-street parking. I'm currently sitting in a terraced house in East London.

37% of cars in urban areas are parked on the street. There's a whole separate question about why so many people in urban areas have cars of course. The direction of travel is that it will be uneconomical to keep a petrol car in London in 10 years time, even if they were still available for sale, so it's fairly meaningless. People will have to adapt.

" People will have to adapt"

I think that's a particularly unhelpful way of framing it, when actually we are trying to help people adapt new technology.

"it will be uneconomical to keep a petrol car in London in 10 years time"

Just means that people will hold on to their old cars, because they can't plug them in - and be a bit poorer. Now, if "people will have to adapt" means that there needs to be a massive effort to provide in-street charging infrastructure, you might be right.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#587

Post by natch » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 3:11 PM UTC

deanak wrote: post #583

natch wrote: post #581

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have to be careful about moving the goalposts to measure Autopilot according to supposed qualities it never claims to have. It’s likely that implementing the suggested solutions would add more problems than it solves. For one thing some of them would exacerbate one problem you seem to be concerned about, driver overconfidence and over reliance on the system. So while these bureaucratic opinions are fascinating, li…

If autopilot allows itself to be activated in an area where it doesn't work, who is accountable for that? If it depends on collision avoidance that performs far worse than other solutions, who is accountable for that? When Tesla sells a $10k package that calls itself autopilot and then people die when they have it turned on, who is accountable for that? > So while these bureaucratic opinions are fascinating, like man…

You don’t seem to be reading the clear onscreen warnings about this stuff from Tesla. There is a lot of misinformation out there, so I can understand how you could form negative opinions about them. My personal, first hand experience of their stance, as the owner of two Teslas both with the FSD option paid for, has been different from what you describe.

BTW about FSD I don’t expect it anytime soon. I paid for it (yes twice!) to support the company at a time when it was in a fragile financial state. It does give me some small benefits for now but I do look forward to more in the future. I don’t know how it will turn out but I’m thrilled to help do a small part to enable awesome futuristic technology! And to support a company that is not brain-locked sticking to the playbook of a committee of fuddy duddy old world car thinkers.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#588

Post by natch » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 3:17 PM UTC

deanak wrote: post #583

natch wrote: post #581

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have to be careful about moving the goalposts to measure Autopilot according to supposed qualities it never claims to have. It’s likely that implementing the suggested solutions would add more problems than it solves. For one thing some of them would exacerbate one problem you seem to be concerned about, driver overconfidence and over reliance on the system. So while these bureaucratic opinions are fascinating, li…

If autopilot allows itself to be activated in an area where it doesn't work, who is accountable for that? If it depends on collision avoidance that performs far worse than other solutions, who is accountable for that? When Tesla sells a $10k package that calls itself autopilot and then people die when they have it turned on, who is accountable for that? > So while these bureaucratic opinions are fascinating, like man…

>Tesla has created an unreliable semi-autonomous system and made it available before it's ready

Can you think of a better way?

Really. The obvious (bad) answer people come up with here is "just wait until it's perfect and release it then, and only then."

But I don't see how that's realistic. How, in your mind, could that possibly work?

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#589

Post by deanak » Sat, May 01, 2021, 12:57 PM UTC

natch wrote: post #588

deanak wrote: post #583

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If autopilot allows itself to be activated in an area where it doesn't work, who is accountable for that? If it depends on collision avoidance that performs far worse than other solutions, who is accountable for that? When Tesla sells a $10k package that calls itself autopilot and then people die when they have it turned on, who is accountable for that? > So while these bureaucratic opinions are fascinating, like man…

>Tesla has created an unreliable semi-autonomous system and made it available before it's ready Can you think of a better way? Really. The obvious (bad) answer people come up with here is "just wait until it's perfect and release it then, and only then." But I don't see how that's realistic. How, in your mind, could that possibly work?

There are plenty of technologies that are working in a limited scope for driver assist, and functioning reliably if not perfectly. Tesla's death rate (measured in vehicle years) is three times that of their competition in the luxury segment.

Step 1 is to not sell something called Full Self-Driving/Autopilot when it can't do either of those things. Step 2 is to develop a reliable system (per NTSB advice) to make sure the driver is paying attention. Step 3 is to make sure it's only active in the domain where it can be trusted. Step 0 is to not do anything else until your collision avoidance works as well as your competitors.

Consider these differences:

"Subaru EyeSight Driver Assist Technology" -- with disclaimer about not being optimal in all conditions

"GM SuperCruise hands-free driving-assistance" -- with a similar disclaimer

"Tesla Full Self-Driving" -- and their disclaimer is "Full Self-Driving is in early limited access Beta and must be used with additional caution. It may do the wrong thing at the worst time, so you must always keep your hands on the wheel and pay extra attention to the road. Do not become complacent."

The marketing bait and switch is pretty common, but this is "Thanks for the $10,000 USD for Full Self Driving. It doesn't work. Don't trust it. In fact, pay extra attention while it's on."

I have never seen the tech community so excited about paying to be alpha testers for technology that is literally killing its users.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#590

Post by soramimo » Fri, May 07, 2021, 9:04 AM UTC

lofi_lory wrote: post #584

soramimo wrote: post #564

Earlier quoted context omitted.

German here as well. In general, I share your pessimism. One thing to point out about VW is that their CEO, Herbert Diess, seems to get it. To name two anecdotal pieces of evidence, Elon had asked him to become CEO of Tesla back in 2015 [1] and he had conversations with Chinese battery supplier CATL about car batteries as far back as ten years ago [2]. [1] https://electrek.co/2021/04/13/ceo-elon-musk-reportedly-hire.…

I don't know... This year I lost all hope for Germany's future. This goes beyond VW. Until now, I kinda thought everything is going to be alright, Germany is a rich country and all. I wasn't aware of the extend of moral corruption in the CDU. They really eroded the whole country for personal gains. I've never been this disappointed and disillusioned by politics and society as I am for the last few month.

True, hopefully that'll motivate the CDU to clean up their act / code of conduct.

On the bright side, two of the leading companies in the mRNA vaccine space are based in Germany (BioNTech and CureVac), so there is still some ability to innovate.