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Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

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Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#581

Why don’t we introduce some of the same requirements for drivers as we have for private pilots (think traditional bi-annual flight reviews)? Not only would we most likely reduce fatalities, accidents and injuries but we’d probably also eliminate many unsafe drivers from the road while placing a forcing function on public transit to increase usage. We’d probably also see a knock on effect to the training market and in…

Any politician/party who goes for such a policy would lose a lot of popularity.

A slow rollout could happen where this short renewal time only applies to new licence holders, but then it'd take 20 years to really see its effects.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#582

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're going to lose the global warming battle if we don't reduce personal cars in transportation. (And no, EVs don't solve it, they still have way too big CO2 footprints)

> personal cars in transportation. the EPA[1] says 4.6 metric tons of co2 from an average car. There were[2] 1bn cars in service globally, as of 2010. “It has been estimated that just one of these container ships, the length of around six football pitches, can produce the same amount of pollution as 50 million cars."[3] 1bn/50m = 20 cargo ships equal the estimated world carbon footprint of automobiles. There are 50,0…

Cargo ships looks like a diversion from lobbies. It should be relatively easy to solve (upgrading 50k motors is much easier than redesign transport on land to trains, subway and bus). The trick is to conflate nitrogen oxide emission with air pollution.

When I look at data I find that transport is "20% of CO2 emission" (https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emis...) but shipping is "2.2% of the global human-made emissions in 2012" (form wikipedia http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPreventio...)

What does it means ? Well, shipping uses dirty fuel and is very polluting but that's also a scapegoat for individual consumerist culpability.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#583

Why don’t we introduce some of the same requirements for drivers as we have for private pilots (think traditional bi-annual flight reviews)? Not only would we most likely reduce fatalities, accidents and injuries but we’d probably also eliminate many unsafe drivers from the road while placing a forcing function on public transit to increase usage. We’d probably also see a knock on effect to the training market and in…

Can't speak for the FAA but the CAA only requires me to sit with an instructor for one hour every two years to renew my SEP rating.

It's not onerous and I think you're right, a sit down with an instructor every two years to correct any minor bad habits before they get out of control is an excellent idea.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#584

I avoid new technology, exactly because I'm an engineer. I wonder if that is just me, but when new technology is introduced and hyped, I usually take a quick look at implementations, research, and talks just to get an idea of what the state of the art really is like. As a result, I have become the late adopter among my group of friends because the first iteration of any new technology usually just isn't worth the iss…

"As a result, I have become the late adopter among my group of friends because the first iteration of any new technology usually just isn't worth the issues." This is only true for things where reliability matters more than the new features the new tech provides. In the case of cars, of course, I'd prefer reliability.

But for other things like the original iPhone, sometimes new tech is just better than whats out their even if there will always been some flaws in the first versions

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#585

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're going to lose the global warming battle if we don't reduce personal cars in transportation. (And no, EVs don't solve it, they still have way too big CO2 footprints)

> personal cars in transportation. the EPA[1] says 4.6 metric tons of co2 from an average car. There were[2] 1bn cars in service globally, as of 2010. “It has been estimated that just one of these container ships, the length of around six football pitches, can produce the same amount of pollution as 50 million cars."[3] 1bn/50m = 20 cargo ships equal the estimated world carbon footprint of automobiles. There are 50,0…

Have a look at figure 8.1 here:

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5...

Road transport is growinv catastrophically in addition to dominating other transport in absolute terms

I have difficulty understanding how you can present a figure like 4.6 tons per car and argue that it's not a lot, especially as developign countries are headed dangerously toward widespread car ownership.

The "50000x" number about cargo ships isn't CO2 emissions, it's about other pollution due to cargo ships using bunker fuel.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#586
post #500

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This whole self driving, fully autonomous thing has become some sort of strange faux-religion. What really bugs me, as someone working in consulting as a hands-on backend developer with a previous background in technical consulting at an accounting Big4 (student job), is the insane amount of PR, politics and marketing talk by people who have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA what they are talking about. I witnessed politicians an…

Predicting with All-Caps confidence that autonomous driving is "decades away" is at least as indefensible as overly optimistic predictions were.

I think autonomous driving advocates would do well to look at the history of computer handwriting recognition, an easier technical problem with lower consequences that received significant investment over decades. But it has never gotten good enough to succeed in the marketplace against alternatives.

Why? It never exceeded consumer expectations, which are extremely high for automated systems. Even a correctness rate of 99.9% means multiple errors per day for most people. Consumers expected approximately zero errors, despite not being able to achieve that themselves, sometimes even with their own handwriting!

Because handwriting is made by humans, there is some percentage of it that simply cannot be reliably recognized at all. But people hold that against computers more than other people because computers are supposed to be labor saving devices.

Likewise because roads are made by people, and other cars are driven by people, so a self driving car will never be able to be perfectly safe. But that is essentially what advocates are promising.

That’s especially true if people expect the same level of convenience, especially in terms of time. People speed and take risks all the time when driving, in the name of saving time. I think it’s likely that an autonomous car optimized for safety would also be a car that just takes a lot longer to get anywhere with.

Speed matters. It’s a big reason we all use touch keyboards on our phones instead of handwriting recognition.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#587

I avoid new technology, exactly because I'm an engineer. I wonder if that is just me, but when new technology is introduced and hyped, I usually take a quick look at implementations, research, and talks just to get an idea of what the state of the art really is like. As a result, I have become the late adopter among my group of friends because the first iteration of any new technology usually just isn't worth the iss…

"I have become the late adopter".

Exactly my thoughts when reading about the blended wing aeroplane, yesterday.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They do. Autopilot is standard in every single car Tesla sells now, for exactly this reason. Here is the blog post on their website where they talk about making it standard: https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-our-vehicle-lineup

As well as bundling it prices have been bumped up, to me that is not giving it away for free.

Sorry I misunderstood your previous comment. I assumed you meant that they should include safety features for no extra cost, which they do, not that they shouldn't charge anything at all for safety features, which is such a weird and extreme take that I'm not sure what to even say...

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#589
post #555

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having driven in Canadian winters, I honestly agree that reliable autonomous driving in inclement weather is indeed decades away. The visual recognition needed is well beyond the systems today.

Isn't that just "image de-obfuscation" though? Seems like narrow AI will be able to out-class humans at that in no time. You can generate as much training data for that as you want. Doesn't really require human-type intelligence. Though I guess you might mean that the obfuscation makes the edge cases even harder, which makes sense.

I have a car (Honda Pilot) where the company decided to make the lift gate window too high, probably to accommodate mounting the spare tire inside the cabin. This design makes you dependent on the rear camera for most reverse use cases.

It probably made a lot of sense in the Southern California design center. In Upstate New York, that camera is covered in road spray and salt, and my brain cannot see anything or act effectively without cleaning it. Even after doing that, it will get dirty again after a few minutes of driving.

I’d guess that a least a few dozen people will hurt by this decision.

Take this problem to the self-driving car and things get even worse. You’re going to have a lot of problems with sensor effectiveness that cannot be magically fixed with software.

Re: Apple engineer killed in Tesla crash had previously complained about autopilot

#590

I avoid new technology, exactly because I'm an engineer. I wonder if that is just me, but when new technology is introduced and hyped, I usually take a quick look at implementations, research, and talks just to get an idea of what the state of the art really is like. As a result, I have become the late adopter among my group of friends because the first iteration of any new technology usually just isn't worth the iss…

3x3 pixels in a CNN isn't just 3x3 pixels though. As the layers get pooled together even though the sliding window stays the same size (3x3) it's moving over images that are getting compressed 2x every time you pool. So in that last layer you're looking quite farther than "3 pixels".
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