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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

571–580 of 814 posts

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#571

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imports seeing large tariff changes aren't a particularly large part of the CPI basket, and domestic substitutes exist. Expected responses from US manufacturers putting their own prices up are lagged, and tempered by some of the consumer response being simply buying less stuff. The Fed predicted it added 0.5 points to what inflation could have fallen to with the expected effects only partially visible. https://www.st…

How can it be possible that consumers are paying 96% of tariffs that range from 25-100%. Yet inflation has only risen by 0.5 points? Consumption would have to be less than a fifth of what it was a year ago. And why haven’t there been such equally drastic price changes on shelves if whats functionally the entire cost is being passed to consumer?

Ask your question the other way round? How did Chinese companies absorb the cost of the 125% tariff, were they selling it at less than half price or giving it away for free?

Answer is they didn't: if the US buyer wanted it that badly they picked up the tab or otherwise they waited for the tariff to come down to 10% or went without. Also, very few goods in the US (probably none in the CPI representative basket of goods) are bought directly from Chinese vendors, they're bought from US retailers. Those US companies can eat the tariff cost if the exporter won't and they can't sell at a higher price. That obviously affects their margins, their sales and their hiring.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#572
post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are funding alternatives to ASML. ASML has hit a wall and it co-insides with a new innovation based policy, to bring America back to a tech leadership role. This is a critical economic and security policy, they are pouring billions into this tech as we speak. To think that ASML will continue to have a monopoly would be the actual insane thing.

I did some research and you are right there is some interesting stuff being developed but to say the whole stack will be available in the US soon - even 3-5 years is ridiculous. ASML is still going to be producing the best lithography machines in said timeframe I suspect. It's also extremely hard to pick winners which is why the Chinese just fund everyone and let the winners cannibalise their less successful competit…

It's become a national issue, I think China will be at the forefront with the USA, and ASML/Europe will certainly stay in the mix. I'm no expert, but Russia is lagging in this industry, this has a very direct effect on their capabilities moving forward. Have a look at https://substrate.com/

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#573
post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Back then, yes, many voted for holocaust. It did not had a name yet, but they wanted exactly that. They also voted for military conquest, they celebrated start of the war. Including or even especially so young men seeking to prove their masculinity. They were not voting to just bring better conditions for themselves. They voted to bring glory and violent victories. They believed themselves to be strong dominant men w…

The 'final solution' hadn't been decided on, so no I don't think any Germans voted for that, were the Jews openly being vilified? Yes, but that's like equating ICE rounding up illegals, and Trump sending your neighbour to a death camp, because the imagined 'other' doesn't include your neighbour who technically is an other, but one of the good ones so will be fine. For the rest, you're forgetting how humans work. Do y…

I think that it is you who is ignoring all of the following: how humans work, historical record of Germany right before and after 1933 election and also actually what MAGA is saying they want now.

Just for some background, jews were trying to emigrate away from jermany already before fairly violent elections of 1933. It was already bad, dangerous and getting worst. It was not just a rhetoric.

> Trump sending your neighbour to a death camp

It already happened, didnt it? The oppression is smaller then 1933 ... but this particular thing happened.

> Do you think the average MAGA voting is voting to destroy someone else?

Yes. They openly talk about it. And they openly talked about it.

> Or do you think they're voting to improve their lot?

Not much. They are willing to sacrifice own lot for their ideological goals. Per their own words. Also, their voting patterns are NOT consistent with someone who vote to improvw own lot. Their pattern is consistent with someone who vote by values - and value dominating and punishing lesser people.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#575
post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like you observed, no one with a grasp of economics thought exporters would absorb the cost of these tariffs. That includes myself, a person who supports tariffs. I don't think it should be necessary to explain why tariffs might be desirable, because they were not invented by idiots, but I will explain briefly. Tariffs make foreign imports more expensive. This dissuades people from buying them. Some of those people w…

How do you reconcile attitudes about climate change with your generalization about short/long-term pain?

I think the right mostly doesn't believe climate change is a problem or manmade. If you could convince them that it was a real, fixable, harmful thing, I suspect the right would support strict green policy that would look much different than the green new deal. For example, there would be no "environmental justice" focus which is a big thing in the GND; it would probably just focus on reducing total emissions even if that harmed the middle class / poor disproportionately.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#576
post #422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Israel, virtually every Christian relic is fake. Some are hundreds of years old, but nevertheless fake. This is not a comment on Christianity as a religion. Religions need relics, and if they can’t find them, they are created. This is operating in modern times. I was working as a contractor for Intel Israel. They took everybody on a day trip. To an LDS temple to “see the organ” (what else?). An American LDS church…

Relics are only a way of advertising the religion. We should ban advertisements of religions. If their gods are so powerful then they shouldn't need advertising. And if you are a believer AND god turns out to be real then banning advertising could lead to the return of Jesus. Win win.

> Relics are only a way of advertising the religion.

I can't follow you here. Relics only have a meaning when you already believe them to be relics and no just random bones. How is that advertising?

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#577
post #76

Few thoughts/observations on Tariff impacts now that we have a decent amount of time/data to look at: Suppliers in China are dropping prices to offset the tariff impact - this is what I see in my direct industry and also in many adjacent ones. This is benefitting other countries that don't have Tariffs on Chinese goods since they can buy cheaper as well. I suspect this is a significant factor in the GBP/EUR strengthe…

Interesting comment but I have to ask why you keep capitalizing "Tariff".

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A few notes: > The reason for tariffs is NOT to reduce prices but to bring production (jobs, capacity) home. Tariffs can be used for many purposes. I would say this is administration is clearly not using them to bring jobs home. Earlier tariffs were lowered/dropped when trade deals were signed, and the current ones are clearly a way to strong arm Europe to giving up its territory. > Unemployment rate has decreased to…

"Decreased from where...? " "Flash Report: U.S. Jobless Rate Ticked Down in December" https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jan/flash-rep... FTFA: "The unemployment rate in the U.S. has decreased to 4.4% in December 2025, down from 4.5% in November. This decline follows a period of rising rates, with the economy adding just 50,000 jobs in December, indicating a slowdown in job growth. The labor market is sho…

Sorry, you're claiming a decrease of 0.1% over one month (after a clear upward trajectory since April 2023) as evidence that tariffs are working?

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Moving production to US, ie. they were thinking about 2nd order implications, in other words works as expected?

Yeah essentially this. In my mental model, tariffs give an advantage to domestic suppliers / penalize foreign suppliers, and thus encourage domestic production by making it more viable. And bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. has been a pretty big GOP selling point.

The implementation matters a lot. When fiscal policy is hand-wavy and unreliable, manufacturers can't risk huge domestic capital investment. They're trying to strategize on the order of decades, this administration is more so acting on the order of weeks.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#580

Almost all the comments acting like this is some truth bombshell, like people in trumpistan all thought raising tariffs magically made the us economy better. This is a straw man, no? Tariffs are a mid-long term strategy to encourage onshoring business, for reasons including military, national security, and political influence on foreign powers. This is a complicated topic involving the global economy and evolving int…

Yes, and also tariffs are a strategy to appeal to nationalists. This group is fine making the tradeoff of a worse economy if it means putting your nation's people first
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