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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

71–80 of 814 posts

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#71

This is the case with any tax, it's mostly paid by the consumer.

> This is the case with any tax, it's mostly paid by the consumer Not true. Tax burdens can fall incredibly unequally depending on market dynamics.

Who else is paying the taxes if not the customer? Who else is paying anything if not the customer in the end?

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#72
post #17

Americans will rightly be suspicious when a think tank in Germany writes about tariff relief that benefits them. Of course, we should all be critical always – that's the first word in the term "critical thinking".

For the sake of quality of discussion, you should least least attempt to write something about the actual study, instead of basing your argument completely on superficial information outside said study.

If you add that information, if you really think it adds any value, after discussing what's actually in the study the comment would be sooo much better.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#73
> export prices did not decline. Trade volumes collapsed instead.

That is its own kind of burden. We are shooting ourselves in the foot here, but but I think we're getting the other guy's foot to the tune of a bit more than 4%.

It's mutually assured destruction logic. I hate everything about it, but this seems like a mischaracterization of its efficacy.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#74
Trump has floated the idea of eliminating federal income tax completely, which would balance things out. I think I’d rather pay taxes in the form of tariffs than through income tax. The tariffs can help protect jobs from being outsourced, which has been a big issue over the last several decades. With everyone talking about out AI coming for our jobs, having more options for employment seems like a good thing.

I suppose the issue would be for those on the lower end of the earnings distribution, as they pay little to no federal income tax, but would be hit by a consumption tax. Though I do wonder if we could see wages increase when we don’t have to compete as much with low production costs in China.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#76
Few thoughts/observations on Tariff impacts now that we have a decent amount of time/data to look at:

Suppliers in China are dropping prices to offset the tariff impact - this is what I see in my direct industry and also in many adjacent ones. This is benefitting other countries that don't have Tariffs on Chinese goods since they can buy cheaper as well. I suspect this is a significant factor in the GBP/EUR strengthening in relation to USD. There was a point where there was such a pronounced impact to imported goods that the cost of shipping a container from China to US went from ~$3500 to Large manufacturers (automotive certainly, but also raw materials production and component production) are actually moving facilities to the US, which was one of the intended effects.

US manufacturers are enjoying some price relief as landed costs of chinese-produced goods are increasing. Hard to quantify what this means but the frustrating part is that they are not reducing their prices just enjoying higher margins.

Countries outside the Tariff zone are enjoying more trade - Canada is a very real example of this policy backfiring - they just walked back the Chinese Automotive Tariffs in exchange for relief on agricultural reciprocal tariffs. Mexico is entering into similar agreements with non-US trade partners. Some products are releasing in non-US markets first and at lower costs than they are in the US.

US-sourced chipmaking is accelerating - Intel's new fabs are probably the most prominent example of this (albeit they are slow to pick up volume - I expect this will shift with TSMC rationing production to brands like Apple and Qualcomm).

I think the increase in cost to consumers is painful and that the current Tariff rates are excessive + there is a lot of "cheating" where Chinese suppliers are declaring lower cost of goods on import to reduce the landed cost of Tariffed goods - there doesn't appear to be enough resources to police this policy fully.

All in all an interesting economic experiment and it will certainly take years for any of these realities to have a measurable positive impact domestically.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect tens of millions of Americans believe whatever they are told by their trusted "news" source. My only basis is anecdotal though, a dozen or so "maga/trump no matter what" family members and people I grew up with are mostly believing the tariffs are something other countries are paying the US.

FOX News, after their scandal with Dominion, should have been broken down or even shutdown. They deliberately disinformed the public, there is blatant evidence that the news anchors were aware that they were lying. Not just bending facts a little or opining, but knowingly and purposefully lying. The pretext of freedom of expression, and more narrowly freedom of press should not *continue* to apply to businesses/indiv…

Rupert Murdoch is personally responsible for incalculable harm to prosperity and democracy across the West.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#78
post #64

I always thought that this tariff stuff is about restraining American consumerism first and coerce export oriented countries. Also, this obsession over the importance of accessing US consumers feels ridiculous. If Americans aren't buying then it means more stuff for everyone else. EU/China etc. sends actual things to US and US sends back dollars that are created out of thin air. It must be a restructuring pain more t…

The issue is that the EU and China are not structured to rely on internal consumption. We just cannot buy everything we produce. Fixing that would require years of carefully managed policies and at least for the EU, I've lost confidence that the national governments can work well-enough together to manage such a project. The rest of the world is in a similar situation, so it will be fun times until things settle, hopefully, not on a lower equilibrium.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#79
post #58

Isn't this literally economics 101? How did we ever even end up imagining that tariffs are somehow paid by the exporter??

There's been this phrase 'passing costs off to the consumer' that I've heard since I was a kid, used as some kind of indictment against companies raising prices when their costs go up. Even as a kid I was confused. Where else is the money going to come from?

In theory, from reduced profits, or from increased efficiency incentivized by fear of reduced profits.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surprisingly few Americans can read, and surprisingly fewer at a college level.

I get your point, but literacy rate is high in the US, so most Americans can, in fact, read. However, they rarely read books and indeed most don’t read at a university level. Rarely reading books is also not tied strictly to the US.

Studies consistently find about 20% of Americans are functionally illiterate, depending on what is meant by functionally illiterate. Typically this means that they can read, but frequently cannot grasp the meaning of what they read.

The US is actually pretty illiterate compared to peer countries.

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