Tesla Q1 2021 Results • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#571

Post by clouddrover » Wed, Apr 28, 2021, 3:09 AM UTC

simondotau wrote: post #570

clouddrover wrote: post #569

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The equivalent usable capacity of the Tesla battery is unknown, but it's likely to be a similar fraction. It isn't unknown and it's not a similar fraction. It's 73 kWh usable in the Model Y: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYxTJzZ5sJY A better question is why does Tesla not reveal such a basic detail in its marketing. > When you add up the money you spent on electricity to fill up the battery, then the Model Y goes…

That logic does make sense if we assume that the purchase price of a vehicle is entirely for the battery and all other parts of the car are free. Nonetheless, even if we accept your logic, your point remains a weird one. The vehicle with a 88 kWh "usable" capacity goes a little bit further on the highway compared to the vehicle with a 73 kWh "usable" capacity. Is this supposed to be a surprise to anyone? My point was…

> Nonetheless, even if we accept your logic, your point remains a weird one.

It isn't weird that car buyers consider how much the car will cost them.

> Is this supposed to be a surprise to anyone?

This has all been a surprise to you. You're not across the detail but that's okay. Now you know more.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#572

Post by inflagranti » Wed, Apr 28, 2021, 4:42 AM UTC

dustinmoris wrote: post #523

andrepd wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see the connection.

> I expected Musk-hype in this thread but nothing quite so ridiculous as these idiotic "analyses" Of course there is a ceiling which any product maker will hit eventually, but the OP made a prediction that Tesla could become the worlds biggest car manufacturer and the response to that was to label this an "idiotic analyses". This reminds me of how Ballmer was laughing at Apple and literally 12 months later Apple was…

I'm pretty sure Samsung is leader in sales, maybe second when it comes to profit though.

In any case, issue with Tesla is that's it's priced to just not be the leader, but the whole car market and then some.

If there are already trends that other car manufacturers area outselling Tesla, clearly trajectory is not towards even market lead.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#573

Post by tigershark » Wed, Apr 28, 2021, 6:10 AM UTC

volta83 wrote: post #409

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you think these people travel to visit their families every couple of months ? They do 1000km per way trips with the car. The average annual milage across the whole of the EU is 12,000Km per year, it's even lower in Eastern Europe. Most people aren't making these sort of trips regularly. You are an outlier.

> The average annual milage across the whole of the EU is 12,000Km per year, it's even lower in Eastern Europe. I do these trips every 2 months. My average mileage is 9,000 - 10,0000km per year. I don't really know what point you are trying to make with average mileage or where you got that number from. But average mileage doesn't say anything about the frequency and the length of the trips people do on their cars. M…

So are you saying that you bought a car to use it only 6 times a year (going at 220km/h and risking to kill other people) and never use it for anything else? If you want to throw your life away at least don’t kill someone else. If you want to throw your money away it’s better to do some charity.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#574

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Apr 28, 2021, 6:37 AM UTC

kaba0 wrote: post #297

aero-glide2 wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lets start with two assumptions. In 10 years, majority of cars sold will be electric. Majority of cars sold will have self driving capability. Tesla is a leader in both. Much of the traditional knowledge companies have about ICE engines do not help them build a better electric car. That knowledge is worthless for the future. Stock price represents future value.

In electric cars, the battery is the only “hard” part, and that is (or maybe just was) “third-party” even for Tesla. And level 2 is not self-driving and is just dangerous. And I don’t see how would we get to level 3, let alone higher levels. And stock price represents.. basically hype, which is remotely may be based on some figures.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#575

Post by voqv » Wed, Apr 28, 2021, 7:50 AM UTC

feifan wrote: post #514

voqv wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The industry has been sensor fusion for decades. Training Autopilot neural networks to hallucinate road parts is easy but doing uncertainty estimation on simple radar measurements is hard? Also you still have to fuse the data from the multiple cameras. I'm almost doubting my entire knowledge in the field now when all of a sudden everyone just accepts that "sensor fusion is hard" statement.

I'd imagine sensor fusion in this context isn't a singular problem right? It seems entirely plausible that for Tesla's system , it's straightforward to integrate cameras where the resolution is known and data is homogenous in a certain way, and that it's hard to integrate and use radar data into that system.

The Model 3 has a ARS-4B radar and these things usually already do perception for you, so the output is a list of vehicle velocity and pose. Given what I know about Autopilot , I don't see how is that hard to fuse. And I doubt the supplier of the radar (Continental) gave Tesla raw data access.

I just think there's more to the story than we're getting. Impossible to tell for an outsider though.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#576

Post by nikau » Wed, Apr 28, 2021, 8:42 AM UTC

simondotau wrote: post #500

clouddrover wrote: post #453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a range test of a Tesla Model Y (EPA range 326 miles) versus a Ford Mustang Mach E (EPA range 270 miles). But in a real world drive the Mach E gets more range: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSmSiOo-v8s Tesla likes to maximize their EPA test cycle results to make the advertising look good, but it doesn't necessarily translate to real world results.

The difference, as other testers have noted, is that Tesla's notion of "0% battery" is a bit more conservative than other brands. It's important to appreciate that the utility of energy efficiency metrics are different for ICE and EV. In an ICE car, fuel efficiency is pretty much just a stand-in for running costs and tailpipe pollution, so it makes sense for the test cycle to represent a plausible balance of city and…

> The difference, as other testers have noted, is that Tesla's notion of "0% battery" is a bit more conservative than other brands.

Most reviews also note that tesla clings to their bullshit remaining range number until the battery is near depletion then suddenly drops. Other EVs have a remaining distance gauge that closely matches actual remaining range.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#577

Post by concordDance » Wed, Apr 28, 2021, 12:27 PM UTC

nikau wrote: post #460

concordDance wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can we have a source here?

https://driving.ca/tesla/model-s/features/feature-story/rang... our 2019 100D promised 491 kilometres of electrically-powered zero emission motoring while the Porsche’s said the Taycan would only be able to manage 345 km. the Porsche had almost exactly delivered its expected range — 342 km according to our calculations, versus its original 345-km claim — the Model S was all but as dead as a door-nail at 355 klicks. F…

According to the linked article they were going noticeably above the Model S's optimum driving speed. In fact, they're driving at a speed above the USA highway speed limit. Not sure this is sufficient to claim "most real world tests show Tesla doesn't go any further than competing cars"

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#578

Post by stkdump » Wed, Apr 28, 2021, 1:39 PM UTC

volta83 wrote: post #403

stkdump wrote: post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think your number is accurate, at least not for western europe. Also you have to compare what you save in terms of purchase price (and electricity cost, because you drive a lighter car) with what it costs for renting over the lifetime of the car. The salary level doesn't really factor in directly. The real reason more people don't do it, is that a car is a status symbol and most people like wasting money on i…

You can buy a used VW Golf 4 years old with You can probably re-sell it 4 years later with 100k km for 6k EUR. There isn't an electric car that can compete with this today. You could buy a Tesla 3 for ~30k EUR, and then rent at 500 EUR every 3 months (being extremely cheap), and in those 4 years, just the renting almost matches the entire price of the VW Golf. For the numbers of the electric car to even make sense lo…

I was comparing a big electric car with a fat battery vs a cheaper electric car with a smaller battery + a rental car for holidays. Of course buying a used ICE car is currently still cheaper.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#579

Post by jxidjhdhdhdhfhf » Wed, Apr 28, 2021, 2:27 PM UTC

habeebtc wrote: post #208

cs702 wrote: post #132

Whatever you may think of Tesla and Musk, you have to agree that they've accomplished something rather incredible. Few would have thought this possible not that long ago: * 185K vehicle deliveries in Q1, +109% versus a year ago [a] * 2.7K supercharger stations, +41% versus a year ago * 24.5K supercharger connectors, +44% versus a year ago * 92 MW of solar generation deployed in Q1, +163% versus a year ago * 445 MWh o…

I have two separate and (mostly) unrelated feelings. Musk has done something remarkable as you say. At the same time, the market cap is nuts and a portent of doom. Bigger than all car companies combined, by market cap? A market crash could take down Tesla and set back electric car adoption by 20 years.

Tesla is not terribly dependent on its share price. They have 17 Billion in cash on hand so they can fund their operations for quite a few years to come, even in a market downturn (we had a market downturn last year by the way in which they continued to grow).

A large drop in shareholders certainly would disappoint shareholders but they are the ones valuing Tesla so high. Musk is on the record saying the share price is too high and it's factoring in a ton of potential future growth.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#580

Post by deanak » Wed, Apr 28, 2021, 3:05 PM UTC

jiofih wrote: post #552

deanak wrote: post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.tesladeaths.com/ https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/2/26/21154502/tesla-autopilo... https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/01/waymo-ceo-tesla-is-not-... Tesla resists efforts to prevent distracted driving, and also resists the consistent call from regulators properly set expectations for the capabilities of its autopilot feature. People are dying as a result. You'll notice that you won't find the same articles ab…

Hold on, you were talking about the danger of operating the wipers on the touchscreen. That is completely unrelated to autopilot. You’re just pushing your agenda here. By the way, a tip on that: that first site completely discredits any kind of safety discussion as soon as it’s mentioned. It scares you with a long list of accidents when only 6 are potentially related to autopilot in a decade of its existence, vs 1.3…

https://medium.com/@MidwesternHedgi/teslas-driver-fatality-r...

> Remember that BMW and Audi combined had 9 driver fatalities in nearly 900,000 vehicle years? Clearly, 11 Tesla driver fatalities in 265,000 vehicle years is not a good start. But even those numbers likely understate the danger of driving a Tesla...

> Even without making any adjustment whatsoever for missing fatality data, Tesla drivers are much more likely to die than their peers driving other luxury cars. Eleven deaths in 265,290 vehicle-years is a stunningly high driver fatality rate of 41.46. That’s quadruple the rate of Audi and BMW, and more than triple the rate of all luxury cars combined.

The issue is whether design decisions by Tesla are leading to fatalities. They are, if you compare them to the luxury segment they are in. Advertising an autopilot feature which does not work, and moving standard controls to a distracting, inconsistent touch screen interface is leading to more crashes and more deaths.

Tip of the hat: don't discredit information because you don't like it.