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Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

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Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#551

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, apparently the best opening salvo is to take out USA comms satellites and that essentially cripples American offensive capabilities. Modern tomahawks are heavily reliant on comms networks to hit long-range ground targets. Plus, any destroyer launching these at targets deep in Chinese territory will be within range of Chinese missiles. And, as we saw in Syria, Russian air defense systems are pretty effective again…

>So, apparently the best opening salvo is to take out USA comms satellites and that essentially cripples American offensive capabilities. Modern tomahawks are heavily reliant on comms networks to hit long-range ground targets. No they aren't. They were designed with the assumption that GPS wouldn't be available and instead will rely on terrain tracking. >Plus, any destroyer launching these at targets deep in Chinese…

I can't decide if some of these scaremongering stories are from the military industrial complex to convince more funding into new things, or just anti-propaganda to give pause to rushing into new conflicts.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#552
post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're in this mess due to our never ending quest for more "efficiency" The government needs to recognize the fact that semiconductors are essential to national security and ensure we have the capability to produce our own.

I think you're right, but it's partly because we weren't couching the quest for efficiency in the context of risk. I might be more time efficient by speeding everywhere, but that efficiency gain needs to be understood in terms of how much additional risk it incurs.

Moving fast and breaking things isn't national security. (I agree with you)

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#553
post #501

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a puzzle to me why companies like nvidia didn't just raise prices and instead left both customers and profit to the dirty world of scalpers. I guess it's "brand damage" but I feel there would be something more fair and honest if in times of tight supply they ran their own ebay-like store and auctioned them off. It wouldn't feel like a price hike and prices could automatically settle as supply/demand reaches pari…

Some, like this MSI subsidary, were actually selling on ebay at scalper prices. > MSI has admitted that one of its subsidiaries has been selling RTX 3080 graphics cards on eBay at almost double the MSRP. > The controversy first appeared on Reddit, where users accused MSI of scalping its own RTX 3080 graphics cards on eBay under the name Starlit Partner. Since, it’s been confirmed in a Justia Trademarks listing that S…

That feels a like a partner dipping into the scalper world whereas you want the top level companies to set out something more transparent.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#554

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is that China needs energy and other natural resources to sustain production which the US and allies can effectively blockade. It always puzzles me why China is so antagonistic with its neighbours. Indochina is very difficult to invade, and the whole South China Seas situation means that China has no blue ocean access into the Pacific. In a global war, the only reliable lifeline into China is through Russia…

That's why the Chinese are so keen on taking over Taiwan as it will give them that access. The core theory that the PLA repeats is that they could overwhelm US assets in the region and quickly crush Taiwan in hopes of forcing the US to agree to a cease fire and peace deal.

How does Taiwan block mainland blue water access - any more so than Okinawa?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#555

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see that raising prices would make consuming companies want to stock up less. A company that requires an input to manufacturing is going to have a pretty steep price-demand curve for every individual component. Even if prices for one of their scarce inputs doubles, they're still going to buy as much as they can rather than risk shutting down their entire production if they run out. Since their competitors are…

> they'll just raise their own prices to compensate. That's how it works in econ 101, but not necessarily in practice. Prices on many goods are less flexible than commodities like oil and lumber, for many reasons. Manufacturers may be locked into fixed-price contracts or distribution agreements, for example. Or a scarce component might be shared across "budget" and "premium" product lines, but the budget line is too…

Sure, but the alternative is for a company to shut down its production line rather than pay extra for parts it needs. None of your examples would seem to include that happening.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#556
post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a puzzle to me why companies like nvidia didn't just raise prices and instead left both customers and profit to the dirty world of scalpers. I guess it's "brand damage" but I feel there would be something more fair and honest if in times of tight supply they ran their own ebay-like store and auctioned them off. It wouldn't feel like a price hike and prices could automatically settle as supply/demand reaches pari…

> It's a puzzle to me why companies like nvidia didn't just raise prices They did. There have been at least three major prices increases which rocked entire industries. There have been reports of people paying 30x the usual price. https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3133901/europe...

Understandable but it didn't seem to happen like this in commercial GPU sales.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. One scary fact that I learned is that, in war games between China and the USA, China almost always wins due to superior production capacity. Those $100B American battle carriers and $40MM advanced fighter jets can be taken out by $50,000 rockets/missiles produced at a rate of hundreds or thousands per day.

Explain how a war between nuclear superpowers ends with anyone winning?

You have 1 superpower, and 2 upcoming challengers.

US has enough nuclear munitions to outright defeat 1 equal superpower in a first strike scenario.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#558

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That sounds nice, but a singular entity within a government, entrusted with the necessary power to regulate the relevant parts of the market without too much coordination overhead with other government entities, is actually much more efficient at resolving market inefficiencies than the free market. Case in point: production of vaccines. That's also obvious: the inefficiency in governments originates largely from coo…

The government did very little in managing vaccine production other than act as purchaser, how is this an example of them managing a market?

The US government subsidized the vaccines, effectively pre-purchasing enough so that manufacturing could be ramped up faster than normal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#559
post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This makes it easier for the US to spin up more, since we gain more trained workers who understand these processes.

I thought similarly - this is true if we can have lossless knowledge transfer. I imagine we would have to put what is learned into practice before translating it into distributed knowledge for a US fab workforce.

The US does produce ~10% of the global chip supply today, and much of the equipment used in the world's factories, and a very significant portion of the software needed, is made in the U.S.A. This is an economic issue. Not a knowledge gap.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And when you try getting that hole in the roof fixed, you might run into even more problems: "Roofing Industry Faces Unprecedented Supply Disruption" (April 27, 2021) https://www.roofingcontractor.com/articles/95590-roofing-ind...

Wonder how much of that is driven by people actually being home to answer the door when roofers knocked during Covid. Completely anecdotal but I got a new roof during the covid lock down and so did 3 of my neighbors and its mainly due to being home to answer the door and the roofer being able to get insurance to cover the cost.

I get it if insurance covers it (without jacking your rates for perpetuity to pay for it), but alas, how do you work from home while being re-roofed?
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