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Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#551

Post by mbesto »

DanBC wrote: post #437
jakozaur wrote: post #214

Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?

Also not so good: this is a corporate press release. The data will come later.

Judging from other threads these trials have been independently reviewed, so it appears it's not "just" a press release.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#553

Post by swalsh »

dbancajas wrote: post #438
charlesdm wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is great and all, and I'm not against vaccinations, but is this safe long term? Am I the only one here who doesn't want to get inoculated in basically the first batch?

Risk of COVID19 long term effects is far worse than mRNA side effects IMO.

Probably, but to be fair, noone has had either mRNA or COVID19 for "long term" yet.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#554

Post by 317070 »

lm28469 wrote: post #450
317070 wrote: post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but is this safe long term Is getting COVID safe long term? There are plenty of viruses that cause issues in the long term. HIV causes AIDS, HPV and Hepatitis cause cancers years later. We have no clue on the long term effects of SARS-Cov-2, other than that it causes COVID-19 in the short term. It's a choice between the pest and the cholera at this point.

> Is getting COVID safe long term? For most people yes edit: so the whole world is studying this virus 24/7 for almost a year and nobody detected anything, yet you think it might give us aids v2 ? Feel free to link any study that hints to anything remotely going in that direction because I couldn't find anything at all.

> so the whole world is studying this virus 24/7 for almost a year and nobody detected anything

I think you might overestimate what we can detect, when it comes to how viruses interact with a living human body. Yes, the whole world is studying it 24/7, and we really do not have a clue on long term effects. Science is pretty good, but some problems are pretty difficult too.

30 years ago, we could not have this ubiquitous testing capability and probably could not develop these tests at all. 10 years ago, we would definitely not have this vaccine one year after patient zero. Today, we really have no clue on long term effects until they happen on a statistical scale. Science and biotech progress rapidly, but there are still a lot of things we can't do.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#555

Post by mancerayder »

charlesdm wrote: post #364
aphextron wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I'm feeling a deep-seated wave of relief that I never thought possible. Like waking up from a year-long nightmare. Thank God. Moderna is also only weeks behind Pfizer/Biontech here with a very similar technology and manufacturing capability of hundreds of millions of doses. We'll be seeing the first EUA's by December, and shots in the arm before the end of the year. Pretty incredible that we can just science our way…

This is great and all, and I'm not against vaccinations, but is this safe long term? Am I the only one here who doesn't want to get inoculated in basically the first batch?

A tricky odds calculation.

It's kind of annoying to have to be fearful on public transport, having to avoid infecting older family members and therefore not seeing them, and much else. Then there's the risk to yourself with COVID, which varies based on your lifestyle, age, and good/bad genes. Clearly some percentage of the population die, and a bigger have long-term very unpleasant effects.

On the other hand, the vaccine can be discovered, 12 months from now, to cause an autoimmune reaction in some people and their immune systems attack their joints or something.

I think this pandemic teaches us all one thing - almost the entire world of understanding can be boiled down to probability.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#556

Post by thu2111 »

mbesto wrote: post #551
DanBC wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also not so good: this is a corporate press release. The data will come later.

Judging from other threads these trials have been independently reviewed, so it appears it's not "just" a press release.

Yes, but in other cases there have been "independent" reviews that weren't really independent, e.g. test makers who did their own test validation but got academics to do the writeup ... who worked at the university the manufacturer was spun out of. There's a lot of bad behaviour going on right now in the scientific world that would normally not be tolerated, but standards have dropped lot in the name of speed.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#557

Post by swalsh »

thatwasunusual wrote: post #479
benlumen wrote: post #149

I'm feeling a deep-seated wave of relief that I never thought possible. Like waking up from a year-long nightmare. Thank God.

> Thank God. God also gave us this virus, if we stick to the religious logic.

Hey man, some people have multiple gods.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#558

Post by [deleted] »

throwaway894345 wrote: post #539
markus92 wrote: post #500

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The phase 3 only did two shots. Afaik the only one shot vaccine in phase 3 trials is the J&J one. Looking at the phase 1/2 results, the booster shot seems to help a lot in getting the antibody levels up. See Figure 4 of their paper, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2027906

I think the parent is asking (if 1 shot of this vaccine confers 80% immunity) would it not be better (for the purposes of curbing transmission) to give everyone a single injection now for 80% immunity among a broader population rather than giving half the number of people two doses for 90% immunity. The implicit constraint is that it will take a relatively long time to scale up production and distribution to the exte…

[deleted]

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#559

Post by thu2111 »

mumblemumble wrote: post #429
gizmo wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…

There's also participation on the contact side. In Western countries, surveys indicate we can't convince even half of people to install a contact tracing smartphone app. According to my state's department of health, practical experience indicates we can't convince even half of people to pick up the phone and respond to a contact tracing interview. > Covid19 would also be over if people with symptoms would just stay h…

that people get contagious long before they show symptoms

I don't think that's correct. Pre-symptomatic phase is supposed to be about 2-3 days. I wouldn't describe that as 'long' before they show symptoms.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#560

Post by 0xffff2 »

aphextron wrote: post #311
TomGullen wrote: post #2

Great news and the markets are reacting very positively to the news as well which indicates to me this could be the beginning of the end!

>Great news and the markets are reacting very positively to the news as well which indicates to me this could be the beginning of the end! I'd argue that has a lot more to do with the election uncertainty being over with. This is incredibly promising news, but probably not enough to account for SP500 jumping 400 points this morning.

S&P 500 is only up 90 points right now, and I don't see any evidence it was up 400 at any point today.

More generally, The DOW is way up, S&P up moderately, and NASDAQ only up a little bit. That looks like it may well be a result of vaccine news to me, which is less good for the big tech companies that make up the NASDAQ than the broader set of companies tracked by the DOW and S&P. I would expect an election related bump to have pretty equal effects on all three indices.

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