The bottom is dropping out of Netflix • Hacker News Board

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#541

Post by indigodaddy » Fri, Apr 22, 2022, 5:47 PM UTC

“ Instead of producing two mediocre shows and an algorithmically designed movie every single week, they could make three excellent series and three much-talked-about movies every two months and scale back on spending from $17 billion to $10 billion a year and actually grow — and maintain — their subscriber base.”

I think it’s inevitable that Netflix will sell to one of the media behemoths. They simply don’t have the time that it will take to make the kind of major pivot mentioned above.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#542

Post by api » Fri, Apr 22, 2022, 5:49 PM UTC

danans wrote: post #322

I doubt most of the subscription loss is attributable to reasons that most HN types go on about (the rants about wokeness, not enough scifi, carousel UI, pirating etc...). What's probably going on is after after a few years of pandemic isolation and Netflix binging, the arrival of pandemic triggered inflation, and overall higher employment rates, people just have less interest, time, and money to binge watch longer f…

I think pandemic rebound is probably part of it, but honestly I just think Netflix has gotten cheap. Whether it's in-house or licensed, "woke" or not, whatever, the quality of in-house content and the availability of outside content has really gone downhill.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#543

Post by bhaak » Fri, Apr 22, 2022, 5:50 PM UTC

greggman3 wrote: post #521

NearAP wrote: post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. - I recently realized I had only turned on my TV just about 4 - 5 times in about 6 months and yet I was paying close to $140 per month, so I downgraded my cable subscription to the minimal (combined cable & internet is cheaper than only internet). - Also realized I rarely watched Netflix (hadn't watched in months) cos I no longer found shows that I liked and I was paying $15.49 per month. And then I saw HBO…

> There's also the psychological part that HBO Max allows me to pay for the whole year upfront (Netflix doesn't) so I can close my eyes and just pay them $100 and be done with it. Interesting. My behavior has been that when someone recommends a show on Netflix and I decide I want to watch it it subscribe and cancel which means I pay for 1 month. I watch the show. I've tried browsing for others but hate browsing on Ne…

> I've tried browsing for others but hate browsing on Netflix.

Is this Netflix or do you hate browsing on other streaming services as well?

Regarding UI IMO Netflix is still top. Disney+ is somewhat close in handling but noticeably slower and you notice its focus on movies. Series are not as easily navigatable as on Netflix.

Amazon Prime is abysmal. They don't even group different seasons of a series together. Here in Switzerland, it's even worse, I get a mix of French and German stuff recommended.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#544

Post by gernb » Fri, Apr 22, 2022, 5:51 PM UTC

Stunting wrote: post #291

cercatrova wrote: post #101

It's easier just to pirate than keep up with all these streaming services. - You get the benefit of high quality (true 4k, not stream compressed "4k") and no buffering. - Plex, Radarr, Sonarr automatically downloads and categorizes your content for you, you can just sit back and enjoy your content. - Edit: Plex et al are not the *only* ways to download content, not sure why some replies are thinking so. I too can typ…

You're stealing income, specifically from me and all of my coworkers. Perhaps you think that you're only stealing from Producers and A list actors, but there are entire departments that receive residuals on a production. - On screen performers, stunt performers like myself and actors who grind out a comfortable living. Those residuals also go to qualifying for health insurance through earnings. You are directly steal…

I'm super sympathetic that someone is not paying for you for the time you spent making the content (me, also a content creator) But, just a suggestion, you need to find a better way to put your message. As long as you call it theft / stealing you're going to get lots of push back because copying a movie is not the same as stealing/theft so instead of making your point you'll mostly get arguments about definitions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IeTybKL1pM4

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#545

Post by julianbuse » Fri, Apr 22, 2022, 5:53 PM UTC

asciimov wrote: post #242

The only think that keeps me subscribed is my partners addiction to Asian dramas (K-dramas, J-dramas, C-dramas, etc). Yes, we also have several other dedicated Asian Drama streaming services, but Netflix has some exclusives.

What is a C-drama?

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#546

Post by ineedasername » Fri, Apr 22, 2022, 5:54 PM UTC

rhino369 wrote: post #323

hardwaregeek wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know how to phrase this nicely, but this is precisely the type of Hacker News nerd-blindness that I find amazing. It's "easier"? Is it? For young children who want to watch their kids shows and don't know what 4k means? For grandparents who want to see some k-dramas and have no clue about DRM or geo-locked? Sure, Netflix has issues and it's made some bad decisions, but let's not delude ourselves here. The gro…

It's not easier. I've got a BS in EE and am old enough to have downloaded episodes of the TV show 24 over 56k using early BitTorrent. I've successfully set up plex (which requires an in house server/spare pc), sonarr, radarr, usenet, etc. I'm probably the 99% percentile in ability to pirate. And its not easier than netflix. 90% of people I know probably couldn't set this up. And the other 10% would spend more time di…

>GabeN is not correct. Piracy is a money problem.

GabeN is partially correct: It's a money & service problem. It's money for some, service for others, sometimes a bit of both. During college I had no money, so the issue for me was money. Once I got a job after college it was service: I didn't want to drive to music store & hope they had the CD in stock that I was looking for, not when I could definitely get it in 5 minutes online. Similar issue for videogames: I didn't want to spend $30-$60 for a game I couldn't return, when my computer might choke on it & not run or if half an hour in I realized it was crap. On top of which I might have to drive around to half a dozen stores to find a copy. That was a mixture of service & money.

These days it's faster for me to pay $1 for a song than pirate it, and I can instantly buy, download, and return a game in an hour if it either doesn't run or I hate it immediately.

Free is enticing, but so is convenience & instant gratification.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#547

Post by softwaredoug » Fri, Apr 22, 2022, 5:54 PM UTC

Netflix feels like a case of trying to “A/B testing as substitution for a strategy”

Being overly focused on engagement optimizes what’s easy to measure. It doesn’t always optimize what’s important. In the case of Netflix what’s important is brand strength and month over month subscriber retention. Engagement optimization leads to click-baity crappy reality TV instead of shows that actually drive retention

Meanwhile other services (notably Apple TV+) simply focuses on quality over quantity and starting to do rather well.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#548

Post by Stunting » Fri, Apr 22, 2022, 5:57 PM UTC

digisign wrote: post #486

Stunting wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're stealing income, specifically from me and all of my coworkers. Perhaps you think that you're only stealing from Producers and A list actors, but there are entire departments that receive residuals on a production. - On screen performers, stunt performers like myself and actors who grind out a comfortable living. Those residuals also go to qualifying for health insurance through earnings. You are directly steal…

When you work for the devil, don't be surprised to become collateral damage. Thinking of all the stealing they've done from the public domain it makes my blood boil. Charging top dollar for artists work that have been dead for decades is a disgrace. How about "stealing" from the public and renting it out in perpetuity... Winnie the Pooh, anyone?

"I steal from you because I find your parent company morally reprehensible, yet I would still like to enjoy the services provided by that company."

Hell of a position.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#549

Post by martin_drapeau » Fri, Apr 22, 2022, 5:57 PM UTC

Netflix is kind of stuck. They don't have expansion revenue and therefore growth prospects are limited to increasing subscriptions against now a very competitive, and almost commoditized market.

The writing was on the wall that Disney+, HBO Max, etc would be attacking them and taking away customers.

Those legacy businesses have other sources of revenue and streaming is their future. They have the means to keep their prices low for many years to fuel growth.

Not sure what Netflix can do to continue growing. Then again, they managed to switch from DVD to streaming years ago. It was rough, they made mistakes but overcame them. Looking forward to see what they do.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#550

Post by tomlin » Fri, Apr 22, 2022, 5:57 PM UTC

The idea that it would grow for infinity time was the real problem here. We should expect ups in downs in a business. Economics is supposed to work like that.