Live data from Hacker News

Moore's Law for Everything

moores.samaltman.com

541–550 of 554 posts

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#541
post #504
post #501

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But X has happened many times, and Y has never yet become like Z. Automation has replaced workers on massive, ginormous, gigantuan scales. Factories have replaced manual workers, then more efficient factories have replaced those factories, and then that's happened again several times over. Yet still we have near full employment and many, many more open positions than we have unemployed. How long are we supposed to wa…

X is “AGI invented”. Not special purpose AI, not automation, AGI — the G stands for “general”. If this has ever happened, it wasn’t on Earth (unless you count evolution producing us, in which case the example is “Neanderthals are all dead”).

I don't see what that's got to do with horses then. It seems like that's just completely obscuring the point.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#542
post #541
post #504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

X is “AGI invented”. Not special purpose AI, not automation, AGI — the G stands for “general”. If this has ever happened, it wasn’t on Earth (unless you count evolution producing us, in which case the example is “Neanderthals are all dead”).

I don't see what that's got to do with horses then. It seems like that's just completely obscuring the point.

I see. I don’t know how to rephrase it to be better, but I’ll have a go:

Horses represent the importance of muscle power in the economy, which was made vanishing small by mechanisation; AGI would do the same for intellectual labour.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#543
post #529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money supply and money circulation depend on market activity, you can't keep amount of money constant because there is no perfect competition in which demand and supply are equal. There is nothing wrong with subsidizing citizens and/or companies but there should be limit because you can end up with inflation where you for example over subsidy citizens and therefore excess of money and demand drives prices of goods an…

> you can't keep amount of money constant because there is no perfect competition in which demand and supply are equal. I don't understand what you mean. What are the supply and demand in question? supply of and demand for money? I've generally been confused by what people mean when they talk about the demand for money, especially when they talk about whether it is equal to the supply. The supply of money is a partic…

I was referring to perfect market competition:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perfect_competition [1]

And I said money supply depends on market activity meaning only scenario where would amount of money be constant is perfect market competition(quantity demanded and quantity supplied are equal) but perfect market competition does not exist in reality.

It is also called Market equilibrium: "in this case is a condition where a market price is established through competition such that the amount of goods or services sought by buyers is equal to the amount of goods or services produced by sellers." [2]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perfect_competition

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_equilibrium

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#545
post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're still making bad arguments. The majority of the citizens of the USSR were against its dissolution - but that didn't matter, it was mostly an elite affair. I look at statistics and what people that I know and lived there told me. Most people who were adults at the time seem to regret the fall of the Soviet Union, and most people from post-Soviet states had to leave when they couldn't make a living anymore as th…

Wow, you are so clueless is not even funny. Try living there then. Good luck!

It doesn't exist anymore, but I know many people that did, and they seem to agree with my assessment.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#546
post #477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"incentivizing" is such an anodyne word for this cruelty.

Do you have an actual argument or are you just going to nitpick word choices?

Words matter. Let's be clear about the human costs of what we are describing.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#547

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Endless hedonism is boring until there is competition. DenisM mentions status in his comment. Status will demand Versailles bigger than can be passed at light speed during a life, just to impress. There will be galaxies full of combat drones, just to keep the balance in fighting power.

I already have everything in the Universe outside your lightcone as my personal Versailles most remote wings, and you can't prove otherwise. My robots are on their way back and information about them will arrive with you approximately a second after you die, whenever that is. See what a pointless status grab it is? If it's outside all possible knowledge, it may as well be lies (it's not though). You can play Elite: D…

What if it's not about keeping individual humans comfortable with nice experiences but about growing the amount of awareness? We think of humans as a resource problem but they are also the source of innovation and creativity. Will resources be limited if there is the chance to grow the number of aware beings to new heights with the potential to reach new levels of civilization?

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#548
post #525

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's why the ability to work from home is important. Sure there will still be expensive cities, but living on cheap rural land will be much easier.

sure but why would you want to live somewhere rural?

Plenty of people would like to live somewhere rural but can't because of work. Obviously not everyone falls into this category, but lower demand in cities = lower prices.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#549

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I could afford to donate a $100k sports car to be launched into space if I really wanted to. Lots of people here could. How many billions of dollars short of being able to set off a chain of events that actually make that happen do you think I am?

That's the thing, being at an influential and part-marketing position at a space company isn't inherently a lifestyle thing. It's a rare opportunity but I could easily see a world where some engineer's car went up instead.

> being at an influential and part-marketing position at a space company isn't inherently a lifestyle thing

I think it's more "vying for the 'richest person on earth' title" that's important here.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#550
post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In general it is right to assume that free capital will be used as productively as possible.

> In general it is right to assume that free capital will be used as productively as possible. Only if you define 'productive' as 'generating more capital'. Yes, over the very very long term, externalities that aren't accounted for (it doesn't matter whether we're talking about negative externalities not mitigated, or positive externalities not invested in) will eventually exact their toll on capital, but in the shor…

All of those things are true, but they are things you believe after you have evidence to believe them. That you should assume free capital is being used in the most productive way possible is the null hypothesis and something generally recognized as true, despite how much HN doesn't like it.
Post reply on HN