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Moore's Law for Everything

moores.samaltman.com

531–540 of 554 posts

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#531
post #477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're basically agreeing with the comment you replied to. They're saying people who are financially secure (possibly like a software engineer) are less incentivized to work hard. Someone who really needs the money is more incentivized. If you got the same pay whether or not you showed up to work each day, you'd be less incentivized to show up.

"incentivizing" is such an anodyne word for this cruelty.

Do you have an actual argument or are you just going to nitpick word choices?

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#532
post #521

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't doubt the experience. The issue is, you're just someone on the internet. The real people I know disagree with you, and so do statistics, so while I completely empathize with you, I can't agree.

Use your logic then. Ask yourself who was defecting where. Ask yourself who had a the better level of life and who had the gulags. Ask yourself why so many countries and their hundred of millions of inhabitants violently overthrew the communist regime at the end of the '80s. Better yet, go ahead and pay a visit to the communist success stories of N Korea, Cuba or Venezuela. They are still around. Maybe they will conv…

You're still making bad arguments.

The majority of the citizens of the USSR were against its dissolution - but that didn't matter, it was mostly an elite affair.

I look at statistics and what people that I know and lived there told me. Most people who were adults at the time seem to regret the fall of the Soviet Union, and most people from post-Soviet states had to leave when they couldn't make a living anymore as the economy collapsed - despite post Soviet states being squarely in the middle of what you can expect from life on earth and above the median in all relevant metrics.

So certainly, it wasn't perfect, but it was very far from hell on earth, and squarely above the middle.

Your argument would also be stronger if you didn't classify Venezuela, a country with a bigger private sector relatively than France, as a communist country - Cuba, I've went there, was far from bad, much better certainly than where I came from, and despite debilitating American sanctions has a GDP PPP of over 21000$ which is quite impressive and above the average for the world, let alone Latin America, and by far the best of any country sanctioned by the US, and North Korea abandoned communism for a long time for their own "Juché" ideology which is basically Strasserism, preaches the superiority of the Korean race, and now allows private markets too.

Your stories are also quite telling - the computer I'm using was only possible under capitalism because the government gave itself the power to control ideas, as capitalism is otherwise incompatible with large-scale intellectual innovation. I drive no car, as it is far inferior to good quality public transportation plus walkable neighborhood, and my house is electrically heated by 100% renewable energy because we had the good sense of nationalizing the power grid and making massive investments in renewable energy (which we now produce at costs lower than any free market of energy, renewable or not).

The actual evidence when I try to look it at critically, shielding myself from all forms of propaganda (in the classical sense of the word), makes it clear that reality is far more nuanced than is common wisdom in these circles, and one of those results after careful study of history and data is that the USSR did not, in fact, have much of an issue retaining engineers and scientists, and relative to its size and prosperity did an okay job at innovating and keeping its population happy. Far from the best, but much better than most.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#533

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does that take into account the energy needed to produce what Americans consume?

Yes, that's almost all of per-capita energy consumption. It would be a really dumb metric otherwise.

It is a pretty dumb metric actually, and IIRC it doesn't actually include the energy needed to produce goods that are imported.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#534
post #477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're basically agreeing with the comment you replied to. They're saying people who are financially secure (possibly like a software engineer) are less incentivized to work hard. Someone who really needs the money is more incentivized. If you got the same pay whether or not you showed up to work each day, you'd be less incentivized to show up.

"incentivizing" is such an anodyne word for this cruelty.

I'm not advocating poverty, nor do I think was the parent comment. They were just in agreement with you that poor people work hard.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#535

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If being taxed 2.5% a year counts as being "forced out," then staying in a highly productive area of land indefinitely is "forcing" people who can otherwise move to your house to stay poor. “Otherwise” is doing a lot of work here. The people can’t “otherwise” move there because the person isn’t selling, that’s the idea. Taxing people so they are forced to sell is forcing them out. Not taxing people so they are not…

> You’ve yet to explain why the people who do live there have less of a claim to the house than the wealthier people who would buy it from them. You've yet to explain why the people living there have more of a claim to the land than anyone else in society. The model you've proposed is basically "first come first serve" (ie. homesteading principle). Except even that doesn't apply given that some of the land currently…

> You've yet to explain why the people living there have more of a claim to the land than anyone else in society.

Generally one would ask that the people proposing a change to circumstances assume the burden of proof; it should be obvious why I can’t remove the food from your kitchen and expect you to justify why I should stop.

If you want a more formal argument then its turtles all the way down, I can approach your preferred landowners on the day post-acquisition and use the same procedure to expropriate them, someone else can do the same to me on the next day, ad infinitum.

> The model you've proposed is basically "first come first serve" (ie. homesteading principle). Except even that doesn't apply given that some of the land currently in private ownership was previously used by others, who were forced off it, via colonization in North America, and the enclosure acts in Europe. Should we return the land to the descendants of the Native Americans?

You are aware that many people argue that we should do exactly that, correct? I’m not aware of many people who argue to the contrary, and I’m not sure there is any use in reciting their arguments here.

The expropriation of the Natives is almost universally regarded as a moral wrong in polite society. its fine for you to disagree but I’m at a loss as to why you would assume that I disagree.

> Given that land is a scarce good, and access to good land gives substantial benefits to those with access, "first come first serve" simply isn't a workable way to allocate land.

This is a non sequitur as you’ve failed to explain why one person’s good deal is unworkable for another.

> Those with land are able to charge rents to those without, and they can pass this privilege down to their heirs, keeping this inequality going.

It seems that you’re assuming that inequality is a bad thing. I think inequality is a fact, and the moral implications must be argued for rather than assumed.

> Suppose the government decides to build a new transit line going to the edge of the city. The rents and property values along the line will increase. And in most places, income and sales taxes fund at least part of the cost. So renters will pay some of the cost, but get no financial benefit,

Why aren’t the renters gaining financial benefit from improvements to mass transit in their area? It seems that you’re arguing against the government being able to fund boondoggles from taxes.

> On the other hand, the landowners will pay some of the cost, but they'll also profit from the increased rents and land values. Essentially, renters pay "twice" for government services: once for the actual service, and then again when the existence of the service leads to higher rents, which are then reaped by landowners.

I feel as though you’ve neglected to consider that the renters benefit from mass transit and therefore there’s no reason for them not to be expected to pay for it; and the fact that public infrastructure results in higher land values is covered under the property tax that we already have established. This whole thing could be bypassed by arguing that these types of improvements should be paid by property taxes (excluding sales taxes etc.).

> Basically every economist agrees with the principles behind Georgism, starting from Adam Smith and David Ricardo, and continuing to modern economists like Milton Friedman and Joseph Stiglitz, so I don't really know what you're talking about here.

Yeah if you think this is a reasonable statement of the economic consensus vis a vis Georgism I doubt we can learn much from discussion with each other, nice talking and have a good day. Thanks for the Ricardo link.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He’s rehashing Kurzweil’s analysis of history, which is to broadly fit a few data points to show that exponential growth is baked into the universe. And then go in to claim that the next 100 years is going to be something 20,000 years of 20th century progress. But I don’t see that the 2000s are progressing any faster than the 80s and 90s. It looks fairly linear since the 50s or 60s overall. smartphones and Deep Learn…

Well, it's hard to view an exponential when you are on it, because the time steps are so small, it can feel linear. As a 24 year old, I can see the effects of internet+smartphones has on people my age. We navigate information so much more efficiently than older generations, not just from technical skill, but from the standpoint of how we frame mental models, ask questions, etc. The early 1900's were a revolution on a…

While smartphones certainly are a boon to quickly navigating information and accessing lots of ideas, PCs did that for people in the 80s and 90s to an extent, and the internet has its roots in networked computers across universities and other institutions in the 60s. Incremental improvement means that overall what we have today is just a few decades worth of steady improvement in hardware and software from the initial implementations.

And while the culmination of the computing revolution today is disruptive, compare that to how many technologies and sciences were undergoing disruption in the late 19th century through the mid 20th. Of course computer hardware lends itself well to exponential gains, but it's less clear how many other things have done so over the past several decades, including software, which seems to be a bit more linear in its improvement. The hardware today is vastly more powerful, but the software often does not take full advantage of it.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#537
post #521

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Use your logic then. Ask yourself who was defecting where. Ask yourself who had a the better level of life and who had the gulags. Ask yourself why so many countries and their hundred of millions of inhabitants violently overthrew the communist regime at the end of the '80s. Better yet, go ahead and pay a visit to the communist success stories of N Korea, Cuba or Venezuela. They are still around. Maybe they will conv…

You're still making bad arguments. The majority of the citizens of the USSR were against its dissolution - but that didn't matter, it was mostly an elite affair. I look at statistics and what people that I know and lived there told me. Most people who were adults at the time seem to regret the fall of the Soviet Union, and most people from post-Soviet states had to leave when they couldn't make a living anymore as th…

Wow, you are so clueless is not even funny. Try living there then. Good luck!

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#538
post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If being taxed 2.5% a year counts as being "forced out," then staying in a highly productive area of land indefinitely is "forcing" people who can otherwise move to your house to stay poor. “Otherwise” is doing a lot of work here. The people can’t “otherwise” move there because the person isn’t selling, that’s the idea. Taxing people so they are forced to sell is forcing them out. Not taxing people so they are not…

Overall, I agree with you that Georgist LVT is nonsense, but overall, I think that an LVT would be an efficient way to raise revenue. > Taxing people so they are forced to sell is forcing them out. That's still very much overstretching the word "force." If the government taxes a cigarette factory out of existence, are they "forcing" the workers to move if they need to do so to find another job? > You’ve yet to explai…

> Financially, a renter would be fine if their home burns down, becomes surrounded by used needles, or has a terrible school district.

Thanks for your reply. I think this statement is a good example of how I think your reply misses the point and so I’m not sure we will come to any agreement. Thanks.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So by your accounting, if I purchase a home in Stockton, CA right now, then in 40 years when I'm old and can't afford the taxes on my lifelong home because Stockton is huge then, I'm to be kicked out for a more productive use?

More likely, the government would place a lien on your property, and when you die or sell your home, the profits would be used to pay for the deferred tax, rather than simply accruing to you or your heirs.

And why should the home I paid for be auctioned by the government? How is that fair for anyone but the wealthy? You're saying that only the rich can stay in one place, everyone else has to move to the middle of no where or risk losing it all to said rich folk who will buy my property at auction by the government.

Seems silly to me.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#540
post #503

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is that a horse can only do a dramatically narrow functions. It's basically a big walking engine. Conversely Jeff Bezos can tend a garden, build a house, create art, write documents, package goods, negotiate contracts, recruit employees, organise a company, care for children, drive a car, take out the trash, cook diner, etc, etc. Comparing people and horses in terms of jobs they can do, and their ability to…

Automation hasn’t put humanity out of work yet because humanity has been better at knowledge work. What happens when they’re not?

That's a good point, but talking about horses pulling carts muddies that to the point it's completely obscure.
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