Live data from Hacker News

Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

stephendiehl.com

531–540 of 561 posts

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#531
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or a service like Wise which is cheap and takes a few minutes most of the time. Never had much of a need for other services when transferring across the globe.

I suspect parent is using "a service like Wise" even though they believe they're using Crypto. That's because for an end to end transaction to complete in under 10 minutes it has to be performed by an exchange (not actually settled on chain). There are many cases like this where the "crypto" part is just theater. Money is being moved the tradition way by altering records in a non-distributed database.

I can see the transactions between (eg) my Coinbase and CashApp wallets — BTC actually moves. That’s why all those services can communicate, eg, PayPal and CashApp.

Also, I didn’t say under 10 minutes, but (about) 10 minutes — ie, one block on BTC. (CashApp seems to register with low confirmations.) So your technical reasoning is based on a flawed assumption.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live a perfectly fine, productive life not contributing to musk's empire. Are y'all really buying Teslas and blue twitter checks? The fact that he has a bunch of money really has no bearing on me.

The whole society is pandering to the people with the most money, you can't separate yourself from that. For instance more of your customers - no matter what you do - are Musk fans because that's what gives them money and makes them more likely to become a customer.

I don't care that my customers are Musk fans (or Taylor Swift fans or Yankees fans). That has no effect on me.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#533

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I go to the store and buy a pencil. Now I have apparently 1 pencil worth 1 fiat and someone else now has 1 fiat? What a preposterous notion!

The pencil was made with 'work'. You exchange existing work with 1 fiat. If you do not consume this work, you can exchange it back.

The cryptocurency was also made with work. Hardware, electricity, and time were invested into the 1 unit of crypto. It's literally called Proof-Of-Work.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#534
post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don’t need to open a bank account to get a prepaid debit card.

This is highly country dependent. Anonymous prepaid cards aren't as widely available as you might think, and often they have very high user-paid fees.

Maybe it’s just my lack of imagination, but I don’t see a use case for giving agents money when they can barely be trusted to not break out of a sandbox and cause hallucinatory chaos.

Let’s say for a minute this is a failure of my imagination. Does each sub agent really need to be able to independently transact?

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#535

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don’t need to open a bank account to get a prepaid debit card.

Which reloadable debit cards have no KYC requirements?

Do you want each sub agent to be able to anonymously transact?

KYC is probably particularly important in this space and it should be easily traceable to a human.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The key difference is that they all require identity to use and can be traced back to a person.

Cash requires no such thing. Neither do easily available gift cards. There is a little more friction involved. As a merchant I have zero desire to sell online to an anonymous buyer because the fraud risk is too high. I have to know whom I’m shipping to and how they’re paying for it.

We were talking about digital payments right? Cash isn't digital.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was inspired by this mural I saw when I visited Chile. There was this whole saga of exploitation by outsiders, terminating with a brown person shoving another brown person's hand into a blender and accepting a credit card from a white person (it's right outside the street art tour place in Valparaíso). It was pretty striking to be there, a white tourist with a credit card in hand, and to see how the locals felt ab…

Good news, he doesn't have to because money only travels along reverse trust chains. If you don't trust Elon but Alice trusts Elon and you trust Alice, then it's actually Alice who is paying you directly to shove your friend's hand in a blender. Maybe reconsider your friendship with her. Why wouldn't it lead to a bid war bringing exchange ratios arbitrarily close to 1? You may take a 70% cut of any transaction does w…

I hear you re: Alice and Elon, Circles does solve that problem in a way that our money does not. But it does so in a way that lacks granularity... Suppose Elon is actually friendly in this situation and it takes a while for the locals to figure it out, all-or-nothing means that you essentially have one traitor, then two, then the pro-Elon faction and the anti-Elon faction, and then eventually everybody realizes that Elon is actually ok.

While this is occurring, anybody who is doing business with Elon is doing so at 1:1 rates, so nobody is being rewarded for taking the risk of getting to know him. And on the flip side of that, suppose we were wrong about him and he's actually a big problem for everybody around him... people have to either fully embrace his economic impact, or insulate against it all at once. It takes what could otherwise be a small mistake and forces you to make instead the big mistake. I think it's important to let people express their half-sure stance within the protocol rather than forcing them to put it all on the line.

As for the bidding war... imagine there's a mining company that has just showed up in town. Two grocery stores exist, one gives the miners a rate of 2:1 and the other gives them a rate of 3:1, because both stores don't trust them, but they have different tolerance for risk.

The 3:1 store has the opportunity to undercut the 2:1 store by switching to 1:1, and then the'll end up with all of the miner tokens. But then they have to spend that money somehow--probably by buying food from local farmers. Well if the mining operation ends up poisoning the aquifer and killing the crops, then the farmers are unlikely to accept that money, so it ends up only being useful for doing business with other miners, which isn't likely to be useful for the grocer because how much yttrium does a grocery store need anyhow.

Elsewhere in this thread somebody was arguing that I didn't need a new accounting system, I just need to talk to the people around me and only do business with the trustworthy ones. By encoding into prices the perceived risk that the other party might be a bad citizen in the future (thereby creating a liquidity problem for whoever holds their tokens) we create an incentive to actually have that conversation an act on what is learned from it. And that creates an incentive for that party to not be a bad citizen in the future.

Come to think of it, it might even enlist locals who have decided to take a risk on feeding the miners to take on a bit of a policing role. They now have a financial incentive to prevent the potential bad behavior. Circles has that dynamic too, but requiring somebody to be all in to even dabble makes it less likely to happen.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#538
post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is highly country dependent. Anonymous prepaid cards aren't as widely available as you might think, and often they have very high user-paid fees.

Maybe it’s just my lack of imagination, but I don’t see a use case for giving agents money when they can barely be trusted to not break out of a sandbox and cause hallucinatory chaos. Let’s say for a minute this is a failure of my imagination. Does each sub agent really need to be able to independently transact?

I could see a future in which ad-funded web sites charge agents some tiny amount per request instead of outright blocking non-human visitors.

Besides, you're already effectively giving agents money (tokens aren't free, and agents decide when to stop consuming new ones), this is just more explicit :)

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the main success for an Ethereum project that solves something that can't be solved without crypto or in a hugely more efficient/better way? I'm a crypto skeptic and I've never been introduced where crypto actually solves a problem.

Read the GP comment again. I don't know if Ethereum has, is or will ever get to whatever grandiose goal they have. But the one thing that I love has done is provide intelligent people with funds to research things like ZKSNARKs and similar cryptographic constructs. It's like war: We don't like war, we don't like people being killed, but man, the amount of technology progress made during war is good. So, even if you h…

> enabling research in cryptographic theory

Yes but ... most/all of this research is for solving weird self-made problems created from some flawed premise like "we need a decentralized sequencer" or "we need a hash function that can't be profitably made into an ASIC". A lot of the zk research is for "roll-ups", themselves a horrifically complex "solution" for Ethereum's inability to scale its consensus.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#540

Two things can be true at the same time: - Bitcoin was and is a massive, historic accomplishment in creating digital scarcity for the first time and the long term effects are still playing out. - Virtually all of the "crypto" or Bitcoin 2.0 schemes in the 15 years since have been scams. Essentially a way for a tech founder to mint tokens out of thin air, and then try to convince others to treat them as money so he ca…

Username checks out.

BTC is nifty but it is far from world-changing. Nowhere near the impact of Bretton-Woods, Nixon abolishing the gold standard, securitization of mortgages, petrodollars, ZIRP, etc etc.

Also, bitcoin alone would have never gained as much value if it wasn't for the 2019-21 defi explosion. Ethereum is integral to the cryptocoin story, period.

Post reply on HN