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Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

stephendiehl.com

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Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#261

Post by toenail »

fn-mote wrote: post #67
himata4113 wrote: post #45

Cryptocurrency is very much a double edged sword, on one hand it enables people to transact monetary value bypassing for-profit operators such as western union and paypal as well as hinders corrupt government institutions from confiscating or otherwise devaluing what you own. Of course this also allows people with harmful intentions to do the same, bypass centralized systems that keep fraud in check, mitigate theft a…

I’m ignorant of this but it seems wrong. 30% lost in fees?? Can they not manage to open a dollar-backed account somewhere? Also: > being stored in a currency that might lose a majority of its value overnight I for sure put crypto in this same category. “Stablecoin” or not.

Roughly 10% of humanity is without papers and excluded from the banking system for life, also because western coutries enforce KYC/AML rules.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#262

Post by nytesky »

l23k4 wrote: post #184
andy81 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More than similar. Another word for the same thing.

I'd argue that the poor capitalization was a core part of wildcat banking, that's not really the case here.

Is that a tongue in cheek reference to my inadvertently weird capitalization of wildcat as WildCat — no idea why I did that, maybe a throwback to my ThunderCats fandom of my youth.

Maybe lack of capital is a factor, but doesn’t that only come into play if redemptions are large? If it acts as a currency in circulation, there can be very little actual capital backing it (like how fractional reserves work for regular banks, IIRC).

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#263

Post by ac29 »

sanex wrote: post #161
this_user wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it enables people to transact monetary value bypassing for-profit operators such as western union and paypal You are not even getting rid of that, you are just replacing them with a different set of middlemen in the crypto ecosystem who are demanding substantially higher fees than, say, a Wise does.

You're entirely wrong about that. A bitcoin transaction costs me pennies a wire transfer costs me $40.

Most real financial transactions need to start and end in fiat though, and that's where the costs are

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#264

Post by glitchc »

trollbridge wrote: post #234
tootie wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly as much as people complain the US Federal Reserve really just proved their enormous value and thoroughly vindicated fiat currency. The financial crisis of 2007-8 should have been a new Depression and it wasn't. Instead we've seen uninterrupted growth for close to 20 years. Markets have really internalized that the US economy is indestructible and the Fed will always protect us from disaster. Will it last for…

Euros, dollars, pounds, francs, and yen are all more stable and easier to use than cryptocurrencies. It gets even easier once you toss in Visa, Mastercard, Discover, Amex, various debit card and regional networks, and ubiquitous banking services. Checks and online ACH payments are free or nearly free. Payment card platforms are cheap in consideration the value you get for them. Meanwhile actually spending crypto is q…

The key difference is that they all require identity to use and can be traced back to a person.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#265

Post by amanaplanacanal »

singpolyma3 wrote: post #192
altmanaltman wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah like why is Mike thinking he is investing if he is betting on a literal sportsbook? That is delusion and has nothing to do with crypto. I am not pro crypto but the logic here doesn't make a lot of sense. You can say buying crypto is like gambling sure but it literally is not. It's investing in an extremely risky asset that can go to 0. But it is very different than placing a bit on Kalshi or a sportsbook. I actu…

Honestly I blame the stock market goons for normalizing calling "betting on the stock market" investing. The stock market isn't investing it's gambling. Same for the bond market and most asset markets. Buying a bond from the issuer is investing. Buying an IPO is investing. Buying a rental property is investing. Investment implies possible productive result from the action. When you buy shares or bonds already on the…

Buying a rental property is just exiting the previous holder too.

I would define it differently. If you are putting money in something with the hope that the price goes up, that's speculating. If you put money in something with the hope that it generates income then that's investing.

So buying stocks could be either one.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#266

Post by lxgr »

ses1984 wrote: post #79
sfmz wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An emerging use-case is a bank account for AI agents. I read that Coinbase 'Base' Ethereum layer2 is popular for AI banking.

Or you could just give your agents a debit card number loaded with only as much money as you specify.

If you're fine with the usual 0.20 - 0.30 USD of processing fees, you definitely can. Cards work well for many things; micropayments are not one of them.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#267

Post by lxgr »

ses1984 wrote: post #154
sfmz wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You spin up agents and want them to paid without opening a bank account... or spin-up hundreds of agents... or your country isn't very well integrated with western banking rails. I think there is more to consider.

You don’t need to open a bank account to get a prepaid debit card.

This is highly country dependent. Anonymous prepaid cards aren't as widely available as you might think, and often they have very high user-paid fees.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#268

Post by lxgr »

sunshine-o wrote: post #165
WJW wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think stablecoins cannot be taken away? There are already many cases where eg Tether got a court summons and handed over the contents of certain wallets to the local authorities.

The original stablecoin, DAI, used since 2017 by a lot of people living in countries ravaged by horrible inflation cannot be taken away. It can just be a smart contract with overcollaterised crypto backing it. And the idea is kind of genius. All the USDT and USDC which appeared later on a just "proxy" for "real" dollar hold by Tether or Circle. There is nothing permissionless or decentralized about them. So "stableco…

DAI (now called USDS) is largely backed by assets well within reach of US financial regulators these days, no? Even a few years ago, it was mostly backed by USDT and USDC, which both can be frozen by their respective issuer.

I don't think any of the non-custodial stablecoins had a very good track record even just in the medium term. Overcollateralized crypto-backed stablecoins are exposed to the market value risk of their backing assets; algorithmic stablecoins have had a tendency to death spiral.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#269

Post by __MatrixMan__ »

alehrs wrote: post #50

I've been deep into crypto for years and I was a big stablecoin supporter. I was fascinated by the tech and I still am. But everything outside the tech itself is just trash, scams, and gambling. I've come to believe that "pure" decentralization is neither practical nor particularly convenient. The only real use case that makes sense to me is giving people in developing countries access to a stable currency they can a…

Crypto was initially interesting to me because scarcity based economics is failing us and crypto give us a way to explore alternatives. But so far, nearly everything we've built with it has just been a clone of some scarcity-based thing that already exists outside of crypto.

Since then I've come to the conclusion that it's never worthwhile to buy crypto with fiat. Any scheme which asks that of its users creates too much continuity between the old way and the new way--it allows the illegitimately rich to continue to be illegitimately rich even after switching to the new system. Anything with that property doesn't deserve to be the new system.

What we need is a discontinuity. A system that wants not your money, but your participation, and which doesn't acknowledge the value of your old money. Today's crypto isn't it.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#270

Post by amanaplanacanal »

audunw wrote: post #15
SquareWheel wrote: post #5

Note that this post includes a major spoiler for the show The Good Place . The show is fantastic, so I'd suggest not reading unless you've already finished season 1, or have decided it's not for you.

I only started watching it after I got spoiled, and didn’t mind it. Before I knew about the premise I thought the show looked boring. Didn’t pick it up based on the excerpt on Netflix. The show doesn’t really rely on not knowing the twist. And even saying there’s a spoiler for season 1 will probably clue most people onto what the twist is anyway

It doesn't look like much, but is absolutely terrific. I rewatch it every few years: it's funny as hell, and grapples with real philosophy.
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