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The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

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Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#531

Post by tardedmeme »

brabel wrote: post #125
embedding-shape wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe I'm not doing capitalism right, but isn't it supposed to be "The one who profits the most wins"? If you win by just spending, I think you need to adjust the parameters of your capitalistic market.

I don't get it either, but it seems to me a bit similar to how the US, if you look at market value of car companies, has utterly crushed Europe and Japan (with China surging ahead of those and maybe threatening the US soon), which to me sounds crazy (I still think of German cars as the top of the bunch). According to Google (AI summary, no idea if it's 100% right but from what I've seen elsewhere it seems right): Top…

Stock market is about expected future returns. Tesla probably won't ever be very good, but it has the chance to regulatory capture the entire US market in a way that Volkswagen doesn't. Tesla gets to market overpriced junkboxes to rich people in a way that Volkswagen doesn't. Tesla has a likelihood of acquiring lottery-ticket companies like xAI in a way that Volkswagen doesn't. This stuff doesn't happen when your company just focuses on making cars.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#532

Post by trhway »

hattmall wrote: post #507
trhway wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't "believe". I'm arithmetically sure that it is going to happen, and it will beat the ground based on pretty much all metrics. Some of my comments with napkin numbers https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46882199 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46880680 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46880486 Just a very rough primitive illustration - a land for a house in SV is like a $1M, and putting a 10 ton house…

You would need like 1,000,000,000,000 SQFT of solar panels to even begin to approximate a space based directed energy weapon that has a fraction of the effect of a nuclear weapon. Tens of thousands of times more than all that have ever been produced on earth. And then you have to move them to space.

nuclear was the only available solution at the time and an overkill. The lasers in SDI are MW scale. Even at 10% (and modern solid state lasers have better than 10% efficiency) we're talking low tens of MW per laser. A 10MW is 40K m2 of solar panels - 200m x 200m, may be like 100-150 tons, one Starship payload.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#533

Post by tadfisher »

UltraSane wrote: post #373
StevenWaterman wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have ASI that follows instructions, you can just instruct it to not get stolen and then it won't get stolen. Most logic / intuition breaks down with ASI.

It might understand how destabilizing the situation is and realize it would be better for everyone to have access to it.

Or it will destroy itself.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#534

Post by [deleted] »

trhway wrote: post #404
dgellow wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The discourse on this topic is at the point where I have no idea if people are serious or satirical. Please tell me you don’t seriously believe data centers in spaces is a realistic idea

I don't "believe". I'm arithmetically sure that it is going to happen, and it will beat the ground based on pretty much all metrics. Some of my comments with napkin numbers https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46882199 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46880680 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46880486 Just a very rough primitive illustration - a land for a house in SV is like a $1M, and putting a 10 ton house…

[deleted]

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#535

Post by avazhi »

How does commercialisation matter when China will pump however much money they need to into this? This is a national security issue for them, just as it is for the US.

Not even gonna bother clicking through this one, the title is that egregious. And by the way, you can be damn sure that if Anthropic or whichever other American frontier model model is the best of its day was on the cusp of going under, the US gov would either pump it full of government contracts or (less likely) nationalise it.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#536

Post by kevmo314 »

rhubarbtree wrote: post #75
yalogin wrote: post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

China is trying to undermine the US economy through open source models. If they can down round or bankrupt the model companies, they take down the US. Currently the US is extremely vulnerable and dependent on China. AI is an important exception, so it’s key for China to destroy that

There's a joke in China that Trump is the best president that China has ever had.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#537

Post by input_sh »

strictnein wrote: post #433
input_sh wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is undermining its own (and everyone else's) economy just fine, no imaginary assistance from China necessary. The role of the US was always to purchase cheap Chinese hardware, slap some modestly better software on top of it and the rest of the world happily would pay for that as a whole package. But with the US increasingly becoming isolationist, the rest of the world is starting to wonder why do we need the U…

> The role of the US was always to purchase cheap Chinese hardware, slap some modestly better software on top of it and the rest of the world happily would pay for that as a whole package Curious where Intel, AMD, Nvidia, etc are in your "cheap Chinese hardware"? And by "role", do you mean doing the majority of the R&D behind the modern hardware we all use?

That's just Chinese hardware with extra steps. If you don't believe me, feel free to look up the list of CEOs that are in China right now as a part of the US delegation.

As for the R&D part, Huawei is still pretty much indistinguishable from any other phone. I could buy one right now if I wanted to. It has shittier software though.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#538

Post by worik »

jryio wrote: post #13

I'm glad we went to space, truly. Racing the USSR might have been the wrong reason but it got us there. We've benefited immensely as a species from exploring the solar system and looking deep into the universe. I'm not certain that racing China in AI is the right reason but it might get us... somewhere.

It is good for China.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#539

Post by novok »

loandbehold wrote: post #411
senordevnyc wrote: post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, nonsensical people like EY don’t think it’s nonsensical.

Researches at top AI labs don't consider EY to be a kook even though they may not necessarily agree. EY concepts/terminology appear in Anthropic safety papers. Geoffrey Hinton takes him quite seriously and mentions him in his interviews.

Anthropic is the AI doomer / safetyism lab, and Hinton is one of the patron saints of 'rationalist' AI doomerism.

AI doomerism is psychologically attractive to "people with autistic cognitive traits, including dichotomous (black-and-white) thinking, intolerance of uncertainty, and a tendency toward catastrophizing". They are pascal's mugging themselves, to ironically use one of their terms. It's fundamentally a cognitive distortion.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#540

Post by fc417fc802 »

kreelman wrote: post #516
fc417fc802 wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can probably (I haven't verified this) omit separate radiators and just use the back of the solar panels. Effectively you're describing mounting each H200 to the back of a 4 m^2 solar array at which point I suspect the equilibrium temperature will fall within an acceptable range. In fact the H200 and electricity are both entirely irrelevant here - the core question is what the equilibrium temperature of a black p…

Would it be feasible to put several JWST-like stirling engines somewhere in the mix to use up some of that heat and turn it into some kind of useful energy? .... Perhaps running pumps that move around coolant passing over the cubes of GPUs? .. That would be extra weight/cost into orbit though... Also, don't solar panels have reduced efficiency when they're hot? And having anything hot surely increases failure rates..…

We should be well below the boiling point of water here, not anywhere near the melting point of metal. Any panel efficiency gain needs to be balanced against the energy required to cool the panels, the added mechanical complexity, the added material expense, and the added weight to orbit.

Ideally this is a static structure with an equilibrium temperature acceptable for the silicone to operate. If the required panel area is too hot on its own then a perpendicular cooling fin on the back that falls entirely within the shadow is added.

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