Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out • Hacker News Board

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#531

Post by DebtDeflation » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 10:14 AM UTC

tripletao wrote: post #497

jeduehr wrote: post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi, I have no way to verify if that is the true reason, but also no reason to doubt it. I will say DDOS attacks on scientific databases are not that uncommon. This is the same reason that a lot of scientific publication data are now hosted by the publisher and not the scientist. It's rarely actually a malicious "hacker," though. Usually it's some grad student somewhere pulling a really crappily made wget script out a…

This is probably the biggest database of bat-origin coronaviruses in the world, and we're in the middle of a bat-origin coronavirus pandemic. Even ignoring the question of SARS-CoV-2's origins, shouldn't this be of great scientific interest? (If it isn't, then what was the point of the research in the first place?) Perhaps I could believe that a small group of virologists would have trouble keeping a website running,…

>With respect, I'd suggest that your attitude seems typical of the profession, and that that's exactly when the worst accidents happen.

An RBMK reactor cannot explode.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#532

Post by spacemanmatt » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 10:40 AM UTC

chrischen wrote: post #511

fighterpilot wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anti-Chinese racism is stupid and toxic, yes, but you're missing the point. People here generally aren't blaming China because that's where COVID-19 originated. That would be stupid. No, they're blaming the CCP for covering it up in the early days, which allowed it to spread and become the global pandemic which it became. Big difference. It's not China's fault that COVID originated there (lab leak or otherwise). It i…

Let’s be honest if Xi Jinping called up Trump and told him to shut down borders and instate mandatory curfews he’d have done the opposite.

The Trump white house was a superspreader

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#533

Post by trevelyan » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 10:43 AM UTC

jeduehr wrote: post #448

trevelyan wrote: post #407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

James, I read your post on Reddit back in the day. It was evasive and frankly condescending because you basically argue against something no-one familiar with the science is claiming: that COV is a chimeric virus that is the product of copy-and-paste genetic manipulation rather than directed evolution or gain-of-function research that has resulted in phylogenetic drift against something that was found in the wild --…

Hi I actually discussed the GOF several times in my post and subsequent comments. You can find them here: - http://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid-19_did... - http://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid-19_did... I also address the statistical models you describe, here: - https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did... I go into detail about petri dish vs lab animals vs accele…

Everyone knows that mutations that increase transmissability generally hurt morbidity. Is there some reason you think this supports zoonotic hypothesis? It is public knowledge RaTG13 was collected from a mine shaft where a similar virus killed 50% of infected workers and where WIV was doing significant sampling work.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.5815...

Your comments on mutation rates confirm that RaTG13 is not closely related to COV (we knew that) and imply we should expect to find a closer relative. Yet we haven't. And the paper you share argues (again) against your conclusions by pointing out that neither Yunnan nor Wuhan are expected hotspots for missing zoonoses to emerge. We've also now spent more than a year hunting there and elsewhere in SEAsia and haven't discovered anything remotely related. But China won't let anyone look at or sample Tongguan mineshaft.

Your comments on the State Department factsheet don't say anything except express a vague chummy solidarity that would lead a reasonable person to believe that SOMEONE in your group of international scientists should be able to confirm or deny allegations the WIV was in fact shutdown for a week in September. If no-one cannot confirm or deny this direct and very specific allegation how can anyone take seriously your claim that international civilian researchers would have any clue who was doing what kind of research in the facility or with its materials elsewhere? And if your mouse answer is correct surely it should take significantly longer than 4 months to bootstrap a program that can do practical experiments on mice with human ACE2 receptors, if only because IVF is hardly the start of the process.

None of these things support your argument. They just raise further questions that you seem to have zero interest in flagging or asking, despite having a very keen interest in the conclusions that you want people to draw. Science does not work that way.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#534

Post by spacemanmatt » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 10:45 AM UTC

wisty wrote: post #265

mywittyname wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's cuts both ways. Some of the UK Politicians happily throwing around "China/Wuhan virus" got butt-hurt on Twitter when people called the B117 strain the "UK Variant." We shouldn't be using that terminology for variants either. While I understand that people largely use location names for the sake of convenience, it really doesn't feel good to be a person from one of those locations.

Were they "butt-hurt" or were they feigning outrage to point out the hypocrisy of their opponents? I feel the later happens a lot on the internet (and some people even loose sight of the original intent). It's like "censorship is OK if a private company does it". This makes a bit of sense if you're attacking a Libertarian, but for left wingers to earnestly think that private companies should have the right to shut do…

> Were they "butt-hurt" or were they feigning outrage to point out the hypocrisy of their opponents?

How should one tell the difference?

> think that private companies should have the right to shut down discussion they don't like

That's a perverse take on supporting 1st amendment rights. Do you believe that right-wingers in turn believe that private companies should be forced to serve users and content they don't want to?

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#535

Post by spacemanmatt » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 10:46 AM UTC

rPlayer6554 wrote: post #241

jeduehr wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi, I actually ended up responding below to point 3 in particular but I also respond to it in my original post. Very few, if any of these arguments are novel. The reason you will find extremely few people with actual credentials in the science we're discussing in these discussions is that working scientists don't have the time or will to get into these debates with people who wouldn't have the faintest idea how to ac…

That's fair if you don't want to engage because you feel you don't have time, but the spirit of the website is to have an open discussion. That means people will say wrong things. If you don't have time to engage with that....it's totally fine. But just saying I'm right and dropping a large read goes against the spirt of discussion. No one is forcing you to. If you wanted to just do a general response to everyone jus…

Referring to significant work already done is totally fair game. You can't ding him for "off site" links.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#536

Post by lostlogin » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 10:49 AM UTC

jashmatthews wrote: post #503

nyokodo wrote: post #481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a lot of luck too. Not being a major travel hub meant the virus hadn’t become widespread. The New Zealand government dragged its feet at first and clamped down just in time to prevent a much worse outbreak. If they had waited a few more days the cases likely would have gone exponentially vertical, possibly made it into more vulnerable populations and the death toll would have then increased considerably. I’…

NZ has extremely high international air traffic. With 11M international passengers per year Auckland airport is comparable with the big US airports like SFO with 13.8M international. Even kiwis often don’t realize just how busy Auckland airport is!

Those who had planes flying over our homes know. The various trials the airport conducted with low A380s and other large plane were a nightmare. We aren’t in a typical flight path, but various trials put us in one. I’m not sorry to see that cease.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#537

Post by darkerside » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 10:49 AM UTC

spondyl wrote: post #470

Robotbeat wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assign non-negligible probability to each of them. I don't know. But I hate the stupid racism and hate around it. COVID-19 attacked every country. With the exception of, like, New Zealand (but it affected them as well... had to shut down their borders, etc). These viruses are a threat to all humanity. I just want us to fight them better and help everyone. I think it's super important that we both simultaneously hol…

> But I hate the stupid racism and hate around it. COVID-19 attacked every country. With the exception of, like, New Zealand (but it affected them as well... had to shut down their borders, etc). As someone who lives in New Zealand, we were still "attacked" by covid all the same. The only difference arguably is the coordinated response from our government compared to others. Some of that is presumably culture too (we…

Being a small island country certainly played a role, no? Not to take anything away from your impressively functional government.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#538

Post by FindMySocks » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 10:51 AM UTC

fighterpilot wrote: post #482

tripletao wrote: post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article is about the earliest origins of SARS-CoV-2, whether that arose from the activities of the WIV or naturally. My comment is as well. Once the pandemic emerged, the CCP's response was certainly terrible in many well-known ways (e.g., their attempt to suppress Yan Limeng's initial alarm, and the disappearance of multiple citizen journalists from Wuhan), though it's impossible to know whether a better respons…

Agreed that it's a separate question. I just don't think the anti-CCP sentiment is unjustified, though. Whether it was a lab leak is important but a misdirection. Their cover-up of the true scale of the problem (lab leak or not) made it hard for politicians in other countries to lock down quickly. It helped it spread intentionally to multiple countries and by then it was too late. If they were blasting their sirens e…

> Their cover-up of the true scale of the problem (lab leak or not) made it hard for politicians in other countries to lock down quickly. It helped it spread intentionally to multiple countries and by then it was too late.

I disagree. The actions from a lot of countries were absolutely lacking, even when they could see how bad it was given both China's data, and Italy, Israel's initial incidents.

China locked down super hard towards late February/mid-March.

During this time there was countless reports about the "ridiculous" and "draconian" lockdowns that occurred in China. The West basically pointed fingers, laughed, and said we'd be fine. And yet they're still not.

> If they were blasting their sirens early in 2021 instead of covering it up we might have had swifter border closures etc.

I agree that even earlier warning would have been good. I just don't see it changing anything. Countries only started to take it seriously when it really started to affect them. They didn't want to risk a political/ financial hit on taking the measures that were needed, and they paid for it.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#539

Post by FindMySocks » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 10:53 AM UTC

mensetmanusman wrote: post #339

darepublic wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can present evidence for and against moon landing being a hoax and if done properly the delusional theory among them (hoax) should be really clear. Presenting the evidence as plainly as possible should be elucidating not misleading

My favorite support data is that you can literally shine a laser at the retro reflector they put on the moon to measure distance.

Surely that can be easily waved away in the minds of an ignorant by saying it's just a shiny rock, crashed satellite, ice patch or some other silly nonsense.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#540

Post by dTal » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 10:56 AM UTC

Viliam1234 wrote: post #177

brigandish wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but xenophobic people really love to talk about it All too often I see this used as the standard for labelling someone a xenophobe and it becomes a classic case of begging the question. Since we all agree it's not xenophobic to speak about it, perhaps it's time we wait for actual xenophobia before making what should be serious accusations?

What exactly are the good guys supposed to do in a situation where bad guys enjoy the truth: support the noble lie, or hiss "you are not supposed to talk about this"?

What a jewel of a comment. One could not ask for a more succinct elucidation of the term "culture war". Truth should never be subsidiary to tribal loyalties. Lies are never noble.

The world would be a better place if we opted for Option C: embrace the truth. And if you must fight "bad guys", fight what makes them bad instead of gaslighting them.