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Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

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Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#331

Post by natch »

jeduehr wrote: post #220
mistermann wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what way is point 3 misguided?

Everyone is citing the evidence of the SARS-CoV-1 leak as reason to believe that viruses escape labs. But you know what's interesting about that? We know about the CoV-1 leak because /the chinese scientists told us about it./ They owned up to it and told the world and the biosafety community (the people with degrees in these things) helped china become more standard and respectable and safe. And now 15 years later, w…

>Why would she lie for her government when they don't even agree?

Fear.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#332

Post by refenestrator »

arcticbull wrote: post #327
refenestrator wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And we're up to the nub of it -- lots of people fundamentally think China is evil and this topic is just another battleground.

Nope, I don't think they're evil, I think they have a track record. That's not the same thing at all. Track records can be good or bad -- in this case, it's a bad track record.

Plenty of bad track records to go around. You started off saying this wasn't about xenophobia, and sure that's a strong word, but it does seem like 'bias' would hit the mark pretty squarely.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#333

Post by drran »

jeduehr wrote: post #236
loveistheanswer wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which part of #1 is false? 1.1 Gain of function research primarily uses samples collected from nature 1.2 and seeks to stimulate their evolution in as natural a way as possible to learn how viruses evolve in nature. 1.3 If such viruses were to escape the lab, they would appear "natural"

1.3. you cannot take any virus known in nature (like Ratg-13 for example) and "cook" it for long enough or in any specific way to make it look like SARS-CoV-2. You can't do it in the time we've been able to handle viruses like this or modify them in the ways we can. You'd have needed to start a few decades ago, have tools that we've only just invented, and a huge number of willing test subjects. I cover this in extre…

> 1.3. you cannot take any virus known in nature (like Ratg-13 for example) and "cook" it for long enough or in any specific way to make it look like SARS-CoV-2.

Military lab can do it. Virus can be cooked long enough in hosts with depressed immune system. Soviet Union did such experiments before.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#336

Post by jeduehr »

ricksunny wrote: post #328
jeduehr wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually a lot of virologists are also critical of GOF. Just look at public health people, epidemiologists. Folks like Andrea Sant, Michael Osterholm, David Topham, etc. These folks criticize GOF all the time, and are a big part of the group that helps write regulations to make Virology research safe. But you know what these same virologists also don't believe? That SARS-COV-2 was cooked up in a lab. That should tell…

@jeduehr No one established there was a consensus, nor should a consensus necessarily be respected out of hand even if there was one. (Recall that it was not long ago that there was ‘consensus’ that sc2 couldn’t pass human-to-human, or that non-healthcare workers shouldn’t wear masks to name a few examples). A lot of lab leak researchers _are_ scientists (microbiologists, genomics researchers & bioinformaticians). Th…

There was never a consensus that SARS-2 couldn't pass human-to-human. Just because WHO said it doesn't mean there was a consensus.

There was also never a consensus about masks, the US government and a few US virologists just felt that way. Asia and a lot of Europe definitely did not feel that way. I would urge you to be as non-America-centric as possible because the consensus that the virus is very likely not a lab leak is also global in character.

I actually know Dr. Lipsitch and have met him at a conference or two before, and he's not wrong in a lot of ways, it should be investigated to the fullest extent possible, I would absolutely agree with that and have never disagreed on that. China should allow in international investigators from unbiased third-party institutions with expertise in the relevant areas.

The problem, of course, is that it will likely be impossible to prove it either way. The closest we could get is identifying an extremely close relative of SARS-2 in nature, in bats or w/e, in an area where we also find Human seropositivity (antibodies in the blood).

On the other side, we could find a sample of SARS-2 frozen and old in a chinese lab that shows they had it before the outbreak.

I detail which things I would want to see to at least reassess my position in this part of my original post: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did...

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#337

Post by cscurmudgeon »

refenestrator wrote: post #254
arcticbull wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also not xenophobic to suggest the possibility of a lab leak because lab leaks happen regardless of who's doing the research; even at BSL-4 facilities, mistakes are made. And also because there were two separate SARS-CoV-1 leaks/outbreaks from Chinese labs which the PRC admitted to. [1] [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC403836/

The fact that this particular theory reaches the front page of hacker news every week, despite zero evidence besides the existence of a lab.. hey, we're just asking questions, here, right? Frankly, it would be irresponsible NOT to provacatively suggest this thing we have no evidence of, repeatedly.

> despite zero evidence

Zero evidence because independent third parties have not been given access.

An event of this magnitude requires a free and fair scientific investigation.

Absent that, one theory is as good as another.

Downvoted as always by the irrational.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#338

Post by [deleted] »

refenestrator wrote: post #322
arcticbull wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but also, if the PRC didn't have a tendency of murdering it's dissenters and anyone who made them look bad. They're not exactly a shining beacon of transparency. If this was going down in New Zealand I'm not sure anyone would be speculating, and also WHO investigators would have been granted full access to the facility on day 1.

And we're up to the nub of it -- lots of people fundamentally think China is evil and this topic is just another battleground.

[deleted]

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#339

Post by mensetmanusman »

darepublic wrote: post #235
Buttons840 wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like this presentation of evidence. Rarely do you see such a short acknowledgement that there are multiple contradictory theories, each having some evidence, and making no attempt to pick which theory is correct. Sometimes its wrong to present "both sides" like that. Like pretending the evidence against the moon landings is equal to the evidence for the moon landings. But if you're going to be wrong, this is probab…

You can present evidence for and against moon landing being a hoax and if done properly the delusional theory among them (hoax) should be really clear. Presenting the evidence as plainly as possible should be elucidating not misleading

My favorite support data is that you can literally shine a laser at the retro reflector they put on the moon to measure distance.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#340

Post by natch »

jeduehr wrote: post #313
rebelos wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a terrible counterargument full of logical holes coming from someone who's supposedly a "PhD in virology". But you're also a green account that's so rabidly and suspiciously coming to China's defense throughout these comments that I literally assign no credence whatsoever to anything you've said. Several other scientists here have already eviscerated the arguments in your r/science post as well. I don't know w…

Hey you can literally look up my name in the post I linked and find all the evidence in the world that I am who I say I am. https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did... James Duehr, PhD Here's my google scholar page: https://scholar.google.com.co/citations?user=8wCwbNUAAAAJ&hl... Here's my PhD thesis: https://search.proquest.com/openview/8e7e18ee1e41133ae74a719... Sorry I'm a green account but I fo…

That’s not how a standard of proof works.

I’m more interested in knowing how you benefit by coming to China’s defense here.

I’ll read your arguments. I mean, I did read the first one and it was a staggeringly ill-conceived straw man.

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