Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#531

Post by eric_b » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 3:30 PM UTC

bufferoverflow wrote: post #305

lbeltrame wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The latest data (preprint, not peer reviewed etc etc) mention memory B and T cells up to 8 months after recovery from the illness. This means that an immunity of one year is probably likely. This would be probably enough to quench the spread, but not to eradicate the virus.

I think we can eradicate it by contact tracing. With 90% efficiency it will be extremely tough for the virus to spread. For any new cases you simply test everyone in the vicinity of the infected person. But I don't think even that will be necessary. 90% efficiency reduces R so much, it will probably die out on its own. The real problem is mutations that are not covered by the vaccine. If it mutates as efficiently as…

This disease will never be "eradicated" and it is not helpful to use that word to discuss policy decisions. Sars CoV-2 has numerous animal reservoirs and an incredible transmission rate. It will never be gone from this Earth.

We will get vaccines and we will come up with better treatments negating its effects, but this coronavirus is here to stay. It will be a fifth endemic human coronavirus.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#532

Post by nradov » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 3:32 PM UTC

bufferoverflow wrote: post #305

lbeltrame wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The latest data (preprint, not peer reviewed etc etc) mention memory B and T cells up to 8 months after recovery from the illness. This means that an immunity of one year is probably likely. This would be probably enough to quench the spread, but not to eradicate the virus.

I think we can eradicate it by contact tracing. With 90% efficiency it will be extremely tough for the virus to spread. For any new cases you simply test everyone in the vicinity of the infected person. But I don't think even that will be necessary. 90% efficiency reduces R so much, it will probably die out on its own. The real problem is mutations that are not covered by the vaccine. If it mutates as efficiently as…

It's not possible to totally eradicate a virus that has animal reservoirs. The virus apparently jumped from bats to humans once before so it will probably happen again. We can't vaccinate all the bats.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#533

Post by levosmetalo » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 3:32 PM UTC

TomVDB wrote: post #498

gizmo wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…

“Anywhere” as in “the western world”? Because contact tracing seems to work very well at scale in Asia.

Luck of choice, human rights, data protection and privacy, collectivist society and strong government enforcement bodies are prerequisites for a successful contact tracing. I guess that work much better in Asia than in the "western world".

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#534

Post by reverend_gonzo » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 3:32 PM UTC

adamsea wrote: post #243

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because you don't find layoffs as ideologically palpable as shedding (some or all) the inefficiency incurred by covid doesn't make the markets wrong. There's potential for a huge gain in efficiency here. The stock market is fundamentally a long bet (if you want to short the entire market you invest in things outside it). Of course the market is exited at the long term prospects of that. Also, you're being a litt…

> There's potential for a huge gain in efficiency here ... Of course the market is exited at the long term prospects of that. IMHO this supports the OPs point, which is that the stock market in its current incarnation does not care about the lives of human beings. Which is unacceptable. We collectively have enough creativity and intelligence figure out how to have a stock which can not only reflect corporate profit b…

For what its worth, capitalism does not care about the lives of human beings.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#535

Post by gizmo » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 3:32 PM UTC

mumblemumble wrote: post #429

gizmo wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…

There's also participation on the contact side. In Western countries, surveys indicate we can't convince even half of people to install a contact tracing smartphone app. According to my state's department of health, practical experience indicates we can't convince even half of people to pick up the phone and respond to a contact tracing interview. > Covid19 would also be over if people with symptoms would just stay h…

People are contagious a few days before they show symptoms, but most infections are by unambiguously symptomatic people, because they carry the highest viral load. If symptomatic people stay home you cut down infections by 2/3rd if not more. R0 goes from 1.5 to 0.5 and that's sufficient.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#536

Post by ineedasername » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 3:33 PM UTC

lm28469 wrote: post #450

317070 wrote: post #439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but is this safe long term Is getting COVID safe long term? There are plenty of viruses that cause issues in the long term. HIV causes AIDS, HPV and Hepatitis cause cancers years later. We have no clue on the long term effects of SARS-Cov-2, other than that it causes COVID-19 in the short term. It's a choice between the pest and the cholera at this point.

> Is getting COVID safe long term? For most people yes edit: so the whole world is studying this virus 24/7 for almost a year and nobody detected anything, yet you think it might give us aids v2 ? Feel free to link any study that hints to anything remotely going in that direction because I couldn't find anything at all.

I'm guessing you're saying that based on the number of people that remain asymptomatic &/or don't die, but you are incorrect.

We already know there is a strong possibility the virus has a negative effect on cognitive ability even in people who don't get any serious symptoms [0]

Those might go away. They might not. There could be other effects we're unware of. What we do know is that you're unlikely to find any expert on this who will unequivocally say "no longer term effects".

[0] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.20.20215863v...

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#537

Post by plutonorm » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 3:33 PM UTC

procinct wrote: post #494

snarf21 wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is good news but I'm worried about the mutation already showing up in minks in Denmark. Minks apparently have a near identical respiratory system. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/denmark-plans-kill-15-mil...

Fortunately it sounds very contained. All cases (fewer than 15) were confined to a single location and there haven’t been any more detected since September. So most likely the mutation is now extinct.

Let's see how this comment ages. I give it 50-50

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#538

Post by mohammad_ali85 » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 3:33 PM UTC

mumblemumble wrote: post #429

gizmo wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…

There's also participation on the contact side. In Western countries, surveys indicate we can't convince even half of people to install a contact tracing smartphone app. According to my state's department of health, practical experience indicates we can't convince even half of people to pick up the phone and respond to a contact tracing interview. > Covid19 would also be over if people with symptoms would just stay h…

> No it wouldn't. One of the things that makes SARS-CoV-2 such a problem is that people get contagious long before they show symptoms. Similarly to for influenza and the common cold, many people get contagious without ever developing symptoms.

Agree with the main thrust of the point but if everyone did stay home for 14 days you may well eradicate the virus. Problem of course that its economically/socially/medically impossible to facilitate a complete 14 day lockdown.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#539

Post by throwaway894345 » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 3:34 PM UTC

markus92 wrote: post #500

aquadrop wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If new pfizer's vaccine has similar numbers, e.g. 90% after two shots and 80% after one shot, can it be more efficient to just use one shot, considering current race with time since we need to deliver vaccine to billions of people? Are there numbers for protection level after one shot somewhere? I couldn't find it at first glance.

The phase 3 only did two shots. Afaik the only one shot vaccine in phase 3 trials is the J&J one. Looking at the phase 1/2 results, the booster shot seems to help a lot in getting the antibody levels up. See Figure 4 of their paper, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2027906

I think the parent is asking (if 1 shot of this vaccine confers 80% immunity) would it not be better (for the purposes of curbing transmission) to give everyone a single injection now for 80% immunity among a broader population rather than giving half the number of people two doses for 90% immunity. The implicit constraint is that it will take a relatively long time to scale up production and distribution to the extent that we can get two doses to everyone.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#540

Post by mancerayder » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 3:34 PM UTC

bufferoverflow wrote: post #305

lbeltrame wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The latest data (preprint, not peer reviewed etc etc) mention memory B and T cells up to 8 months after recovery from the illness. This means that an immunity of one year is probably likely. This would be probably enough to quench the spread, but not to eradicate the virus.

I think we can eradicate it by contact tracing. With 90% efficiency it will be extremely tough for the virus to spread. For any new cases you simply test everyone in the vicinity of the infected person. But I don't think even that will be necessary. 90% efficiency reduces R so much, it will probably die out on its own. The real problem is mutations that are not covered by the vaccine. If it mutates as efficiently as…

> I think we can eradicate it by contact tracing.

People (rightly, or wrongly) don't trust technology enough, after the reputation Silicon Valley has built and can't shed, around privacy.

I'm on an Android phone, and sure, Citizen and a local State app can do the contact tracing. But what's Citizen doing with that data? It also requires interactivity (another Silicon Valley favorite thing to do - call out for people to perform actions via alerts and notifications).

It's a lower bar for people to wear masks than to accept to use an app for contact tracing, if you were to compare the policy actions. Now, you can have the contact tracers call people, but how many spam calls do you get that you ignore? And phishing attempts? I received numerous texts from "the Democrats" with a person's name, urging me to vote, from all sorts of US numbers, and asking for a reply. To this day I don't know how real that is.

There are too many people to blame for this state of affairs, but the greed and competition for eyeballs are the definite drivers.