San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S. • Hacker News Board

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#531

Post by onecommentman » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 4:22 AM UTC

asdff wrote: post #380

notherthrowaway wrote: post #154

I think people are asking the wrong questions. We know that people moving back in with their parents is up about 3 million due to COVID [1]. It would follow that studio apartments are the mostly likely to be rented by those same young people, thus the demand has dried up. The question we aren't asking is, what happens when the economy recovers and these people move out of their parent's homes? Will they go back to th…

I think the answer to that question depends entirely on the employer. While some are making waves becoming remote companies, the vast majority are chomping at the bit to get butts in seats. I know several people who have been called back in, to sit in an enclosed office in their cubicle for 8 hours a day with their mask on doing the same exact task that could be accomplished on their laptop at home. Why? No reason at…

Care to share the actual names of who these several companies are, requiring workers to take on the additional COVID risk with no actual business requirement? The companies, not the people. Not to be skeptical, but I will be. Government, small business, big corporations?

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#532

Post by Pokepokalypse » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 4:22 AM UTC

brogrammernot wrote: post #138

PascLeRasc wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compared to other big tech-hub cities, I'd think SF would be one of the better ones to spend the pandemic in. There's great parks like Dolores, Lands End, etc, and they'll still be comfortable to be in during this winter. Is there more to it than that?

I’ve seen a lot of folks come to Arizona during the pandemic, and I think more will move here. Outside of the summers, which aren’t that bad because you have A/C, and in the summer you’re an hour from being in the forest with pine trees and three hours from Flagstaff where it’s great weather year round (plus a ski mountain in the winter) you got a lot of folks from California coming & staying while looking at much mo…

I'm a transplant here, and I feel like I'm living in a weird post-apocolyptic nightmare with all the Trump signs and Trump flags on their giant lifted trucks. I really hope that this state can pull it's head out of Joe Arpaio's ass, and wriggle leftwards a little bit.

I think the weirdest and most noticeable thing is people riding motorcycles without helmets.

That said; yeah, the heat is not really that bad (it took me about 2 years to acclimate), and there are options for relief. Surprisingly, I think we get more rain in Arizona than in California (not this summer though), and winters are definitely much colder in Arizona than they are in California.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#533

Post by bobthepanda » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 4:22 AM UTC

adjkant wrote: post #460

FartyMcFarter wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article says NYC rents dropped by 15% which is still significant.

I just added a caveat about that, but many of the top of market neighborhoods people tend to go for here haven't dropped nearly that much (e.g West Village area, Chelsea, UES/UWS). NYC is huge and that drop is not spread equally. Guessing it isn't in SF either, but it seems 31% is going to hit every neighborhood at least a good deal. Edited to add to this, see the spread in June: https://www.renthop.com/studies/nyc/r…

At least for the West Village, at least some of that is tempered by NYU. I’d imagine most of their overseas students are still renting.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#534

Post by rStar » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 4:27 AM UTC

onecommentman wrote: post #482

adjkant wrote: post #446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is curious to me is that NYC rents haven't seen the same crater at all (link says 15% but anecdotally most of the desirable top of market neighborhoods aren't budging). I don't buy the "SF is not very fun during the pandemic" rationale as more special than any other notable city, and NYC tends to have less space than SF. To me, that says the SF case has more complexity. IMO, the key factor here is that there app…

Perhaps the phenomenon of “X months free rent” is more pervasive in NYC. E.g. https://www.cityrealty.com/nyc/market-insight/rental-buildin... What little I understand is if a landlord is leveraged (?) up the wazoo, the lending bank can make the landlord pay a lump sum if the revenue projections on which the loan is made shrink, since the risk is higher. Somehow, free months don’t count against these revenue projectio…

our rent went down, total, a little more than a third. half was a price drop and half was the averaged value of 2 free months, which we will have to pay back if we leave before the lease is up. We had budgeted an increase, so it’s a covid windfall. Less traffic and one of the lowest covid numbers in the union atm are a bonus. The constant smoke in the air is the real problem. Haven’t had a blackout yet.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#535

Post by onecommentman » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 4:28 AM UTC

delaynomore wrote: post #364

notherthrowaway wrote: post #154

I think people are asking the wrong questions. We know that people moving back in with their parents is up about 3 million due to COVID [1]. It would follow that studio apartments are the mostly likely to be rented by those same young people, thus the demand has dried up. The question we aren't asking is, what happens when the economy recovers and these people move out of their parent's homes? Will they go back to th…

Everyone is on the remote work bandwagon right now because there's no adjustment in pay at the moment. For people with little or no ties in the area, it makes sense to move back home and save on rent. As far as I know, no company, other than GitLab, has published any clear numbers on COL adjustment, I suspect many will come back once COL adjustment is known (not necessarily back to SF, but to the Bay Area).

Wonder if 80+ US Senators would be willing to extend employment discrimination law to include place of residency? It would be in the economic interest of 40 US States (just a guess), and the long-term political interest of companies with National presence or aspirations, to do so...

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#536

Post by sharatvir » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 4:34 AM UTC

adjkant wrote: post #446

burlesona wrote: post #51

I would say the city being “closed” is the major driver. Among my group of ~40 coworkers, about 30 (including me) have left the city. As far as I know all but one were renting. Everyone who left gave the following rationale: - we can work remotely so move wherever or nomad now - SF is not very fun during the pandemic - WFH in my tiny apartment is much less enjoyable than when I was working in the office and didn’t sp…

What is curious to me is that NYC rents haven't seen the same crater at all (link says 15% but anecdotally most of the desirable top of market neighborhoods aren't budging). I don't buy the "SF is not very fun during the pandemic" rationale as more special than any other notable city, and NYC tends to have less space than SF. To me, that says the SF case has more complexity. IMO, the key factor here is that there app…

Speaking anecdotally I think this has some truth in it. A lot of people I know seem to loathe San Francisco and only put up with it because they’re required to live here for a job.

If that’s the true reason for an exodus, then I hope it benefits the city to have residents that want to live here.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#537

Post by Pokepokalypse » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 4:37 AM UTC

colinmhayes wrote: post #302

tootahe45 wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If remote was the best (most profitable) way to do things, companies would've figured this out well before COVID.

Not saying wfh is as productive as in office, but the tech stack needed to make wfh work became available only very recently. Skype didn't cut it.

I would flag github as a more crucial requirement. We've had various im/irq platforms for decades. They weren't really a substitute for video - but video is only a tiny fraction of team communications, and simple chat satisfies most of those requirements.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#538

Post by kelnos » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 4:40 AM UTC

throwaway1777 wrote: post #504

save_ferris wrote: post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's important to point out that while these trials appear promising, there has never been a vaccine developed for any coronavirus before that eradicated the illness in humans[0]. Influenza vaccines, for example, work to fortify the immune system from various strains of influenza, but they do not prevent illness. There's a lot of political and commercial pressure to make this happen, but the reality is that this is a…

Covid has already got to the point where it's more likely that you'll die in a car accident than of covid... so I think with something like the flu vaccine is probably good enough.

Motor vehicle deaths per year in the US are under 40,000. In less than ten months, more than 210,000 people in the US have died of COVID. You're an order of magnitude off.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#539

Post by tikhonj » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 4:41 AM UTC

ryan_lane wrote: post #391

irrational wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My baseline is grilled cheddar cheese on plain white bread with Campbell's Tomato Soup is the greatest food ever invented. I once went to a work lunch at one of the city's most raved about restaurants. I ordered the grilled cheese and tomato soup. That was when I realized that I really am not a food connoisseur. How can something so simple as grilled cheese and tomato soup be so thoroughly ruined, just in an effort t…

You can't serve something like that at a restaurant and make it in a plain way, because it's something that basically everyone can make at home for really cheap. People are looking for an interesting take on something like that in a restaurant, which isn't going to fit what you want. That's a poor choice to judge a restaurant on. You need to base your judgement on things you can't or won't cook at home because it tak…

Well, you can't make something simple in a simple way unless you are both really confident and really good :).

In a sign of the crazy times we live in, Chez Panisse has started doing takeout. First time I tried it, I got a BLT sandwich. Exactly what it says on the tin: bacon, lettuce, tomato, no weird spices or creative takes or deconstruction. Just a stock BLT sandwich—except better in every way. I'm not even sure how. I would not have thought there was that much room to improve on a BLT through better ingredients and execution, but apparently there is.

Anyway, if you're in Berkeley, I would highly recommend giving it a try.

Re: San Francisco Apartment Rents Crater Up to 31%, Most in U.S.

#540

Post by opportune » Wed, Oct 14, 2020, 4:44 AM UTC

awacs wrote: post #427

I'm curious what folks here feel about the serendipity factor? I've been remote for 4 years and love it (in the NY suburbs area), but there definitely isn't that "random creativity" as being in the office, as the valley has been trying desperately to analyze and recreate artificially.

It definitely feels harder to break ground on a project when you can't easily have a brief chat with someone (need to instead schedule a meeting that defaults to 30m), go look at something your coworker has pulled up on their screen, easily sketch something out on a whiteboard.

On the other hand, there are some benefits to formalizing things. For example, by being more rigorous in defining an approach to a problem you can more easily identify roadblocks. Also I think some people I work with prefer articulating themselves over text as opposed to face to face, so for them serendipity (in terms of creative output) is probably actually improved.

We have tried to "manufacture serendipity" by having unstructured video chats but it usually ends up feeling cliquey (too small groups of friends, people feel excluded) or too awkward (too many people, not enough rapport for conversation to flow easily). I think the problem of building rapport is the biggest issue.