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Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

tomshardware.com

521–530 of 675 posts

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#521
post #417

In related news, diesel is $7/gallon, and peets coffee is $25/lb, and computers (hardware and cloud) are up 25-50%. The official numbers claim 3% inflation. Does anyone actually believe that? We were seeing 30% YoY before Iran here in California. The discrepancy is so large, I’m wondering if there’s an official explanation or some reasonable explanation, or if they’re just not bothering anymore.

Some of the cpi data is synthetic, based on best guess, the ratio of synthetic data has gone up sharply https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-quality-of-the-cpi-data-co...

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$460M was for what was left after the large majority had already been sold. In the best case, "strategic reserves" are the government speculating on commodity prices. They use tax dollars to buy a commodity -- raising the price on everyone so they can hoard it -- and then more tax dollars to pay for a storage facility, and if they're lucky the price goes up by enough to pay for the storage and the time value of money…

That strategic helium reserve was from WWI, IIRC. I've heard it claimed that it was a massive oversight to sell that much helium at such a low price. Helium is a non-renewable resource. When it escapes, it just floats off into space. And it's an absolutely critical resource for MRIs, advanced science and research, and industry. And we are selling it at a price that's attractive as an amusement for children.

> That strategic helium reserve was from WWI, IIRC.

That may have been when it opened but the current war machine has little use for dirigibles.

> I've heard it claimed that it was a massive oversight to sell that much helium at such a low price. Helium is a non-renewable resource. When it escapes, it just floats off into space.

Helium is produced within the earth by radioactive decay. It then gets trapped in the same pockets as natural gas, which is why it gets extracted along with the natural gas. But most natural gas doesn't undergo helium extraction. If we wanted more, we could do helium extraction on more of the natural gas. Not doing it releases significantly more into the atmosphere than was present in the reserve. But doing it is expensive so we only do it more if there is demand for more helium.

The first mistake was the government hoarding that much of it to begin with. It doesn't make a lot of sense to pay a high cost for extraction in an earlier year and then pay a high cost for storage for an indefinite period of time if you're already discarding (i.e. not separating) most of it and could just extract more once you actually want it.

The second mistake was unloading such a massive amount over a relatively short period of time, because then you crash the short-term price and cause people to waste the thing you spent a lot of money to extract.

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the helium gets warm, you have to vent it outside before it goes kaboom from the pressure. https://radiology.ucsf.edu/patient-care/patient-safety/mri-s...

Damn, that's intense: > If the scan room door is closed when a quench occurs and helium escapes into the scan room, the depletion of oxygen causes a critical increase in pressure in the room compared with the control area. This produces high pressure in the scan room, which may prevent opening of the door. If this should happen, the glass partition between the scan and control rooms should be broken to release the pr…

note for hospitals: doors into MRI rooms should open outside

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#524
post #345

This situation would be laughable if the consequences weren't so dire. I have problems adequately stating just how incompetent and ill-thought out this entire misadventure was. I say this because everything that's happened has been completely foreseeable and foreseen , including the ability of Iran to retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz. This has been something many militaries around the world have planned scen…

> I say this because everything that's happened has been completely foreseeable and foreseen, including the ability of Iran to retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Yup. Even illiterate could tell just looking at the damn map. Gotta wonder if somebody on top is trying to undermine own country...

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#525

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Commercial uses layered surge protectors (Type I, II, and III), which is also recommended for other users but rarely followed. In surge prone areas, at a minimum I would have good quality whole-house surge protector (eg Siemens 140 or Eaton 108), and a good quality surge protector strip for any computer/TV/phone charger. I also put surge protectors in front of expensive white goods like the fridge, washer/dryer, dish…

Are you in an area with a bad electrical grid or something? In 40+ years I've never had a single device get fried from a surge/storm. My "surge protector" power strips are from the 90s and probably don't even work.

Heavy industry can also cause these kinds of power surges to happen.

Last year an aluminum smelter in Iceland had a transformer blow which caused a big power surge on parts of the very well developed national power grid. The surge caused damage to electronics in some households and companies near to the smelter.

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#526
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ideological idiocy, the dismantling of anything public turning into private hands is ideologically pure for libertarian-inclined folks, no matter how strategically stupid it might be.

Seems more directly capitalist than libertarian to me.

Neoliberal capitalism is founded on absorbing parts of libertarian thinking. The "capitalism" moniker of today used by ideologues is coupled to the meaning of it given by neoliberals.

It's been coopted, not necessarily capitalism means "everything should be private", the current flavour of capitalist ideology wants that but other versions of capitalism don't put that as a foundational Ideological tenet.

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#527
post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The infrastructure to get it that pure becomes very specialized I think some of the most advanced fab infrastructure is the ultra pure water system. Water becomes quite aggressive chemically when it has no dissolved ions in it. You have to use exotic or highly processed materials simply to transport it around. If the factory didn't need such massive quantities of it, trucking it in would likely be preferable.

Ultrahigh density polyethylene isn't that exotic.

What about microplastics?

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#528
post #414
post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>In surge prone areas What areas are surge prone?

The California bay area, at least all the sides of it I’ve lived on. We currently have a whole house battery, whole house surge protector, a second surge protector, and a UPS between the router/nas/etc and PG&E. It’s not good enough. At least the power stays on once the grid stops bouncing (or once I manage to log into the rebooting battery gateway computer to have it flip the “off grid” breaker, or go outside and fl…

Huh, interesting. I've lived in the bay area for 22 years (first 6 of them in various places from SJ up the peninsula, remainder in SF), and I've never experienced damage to anything due to a power surge.

Not saying you're lying, but I do wonder if your experience is typical.

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#529

Freight rate volatility is one of the most underappreciated risks in physical product businesses. During the 2021-2022 shipping crisis, ocean freight from China to the US West Coast hit $20k+ per container — a 10x jump that wiped margins for importers who hadn't hedged. Air freight as a backup is worth keeping in your model even if you never use it; knowing your break-even point at air rates tells you a lot about pro…

How would you model your business like this? Like what tools / literature can you recommend?

Excel normally

You type in a normal profit and loss account, prior year might work, forecast is better. Then you see how your freight cost changes from sea to air by getting a quote from your freight company of choice. If it is 5% more then change the freight line in your p&l to be 5% higher. Are you still profitable?

Re: Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock

#530
post #200

Tech divers are also probably gonna be having a Bad Time. Helium mixes are already pretty expensive, I assume this will make it far worse.

Also, copper welding involves the use of helium as shielding gas. Helium shortage is painful

Interesting. Do you know why it uses helium?
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